How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA

IMF Working Papers, September 1, 2009

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This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect.
The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school.
A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program.
The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys.
While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.

Microsimulation technique applied to a conditional cash transfer program.
Simulation based on a model of occupational choice.
Comparison of simulated outcomes with actual program effects.
Use of bootstrapped confidence intervals to assess overlap between simulated and actual effects.

The transfer is simulated to increase school attendance.
The simulated increase is larger for girls than for boys.
Simulated effects tend to be larger than actual effects.
Actual effects fall within the bootstrapped confidence intervals derived from the simulation.