How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA

September 1, 2009

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Fabian Bornhorst. How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2009) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.

Subject: Aging, Education, Income, Labor, Wages

Keywords: Age group, Labor market, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

35
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2009/187
Stock No:

WPIEA2009187
ISBN:

9781451873344
ISSN:

1018-5941

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