Estimating the Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

May 23, 2016

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Diego A. Cerdeiro Estimating the Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2016) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

In February 2016, twelve Pacific Rim countries signed the agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), one of the largest and most comprehensive trade deals in history. While there are several estimates of the likely effects of the TPP, there is no systematic study on the effects on all Latin American countries. We present the results from applying a multi-sector model with perfect competition presented by Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014). The exercise, based on input-output data for 189 countries and 26 sectors, shows that (i) Asian TPP members are estimated to benefit most from the agreement, (ii) negative spillovers to non-TPP LAC countries appear to be of a different order of magnitude than the gains of members, and (iii) some non-TPP LAC countries may experience relatively large benefits from joining the TPP. As a cautionary note, however, we point out that even a cursory cross-study comparison shows that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential effects of the TPP for both members and non-members.

Subject: Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, Imports, International trade, National accounts, Personal income, Spillovers, Tariffs, Taxes

Keywords: Caribbean, Center, Central America, Exports, Imports, LAC, LAC country, Personal income, Spillovers, Tariffs, TPP, TPP agreement, TPP country, TPP member, TPP move, TPP partner, Trans-Pacific Partnership, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

30
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2016/101
Stock No:

WPIEA2016101
ISBN:

9781484362426
ISSN:

1018-5941

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