Commodities and the Market Price of Risk

September 1, 2008

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Shaun K. Roache Commodities and the Market Price of Risk, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2008) accessed December 23, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Commodities are back following a stellar run of price performance, attracting financial investor attention. What are the fundamental reasons to hold commodities? One reason is the exposure offered to underlying risk factors. In this paper, I assess the macro risk exposure offered by commodity futures and test whether these risks are priced, using Merton's (1973) intertemporal capital asset pricing model for a sample of commodity prices covering the period January 1973 - February 2008. I find that commodity futures offer a hedge against lower interest rates and that investors are willing to accept lower expected returns for this position. Although some commodities are also a hedge against U.S. dollar depreciation, this risk is not priced.

Subject: Commodities, Futures, Market risk, Real interest rates, Return on investment

Keywords: Futures contract, Interest rate, Risk premium, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

23
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2008/221
Stock No:

WPIEA2008221
ISBN:

9781451870794
ISSN:

1018-5941

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