Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?

May 26, 2016

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Joong S Kang, and Wei Liao. Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2016) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years. Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40–50 percent of slowdown during this period. Weaker exports also account for about 40 percent of slowdown, of which about a quarter is due to stronger RMB. Onshoring—substitution of imported intermediate inputs with domestic production—has not been an additional drag over this period but it continues to slow import growth at a similar pace as previous periods. There is large uncertainty about the impact of rebalancing on the import slowdown due to difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path.

Subject: Consumption, Exports, Financial crises, Foreign exchange, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Imports, International trade, National accounts, Real effective exchange rates

Keywords: Consumption, Exchange Rate, Exports, Financial crisis, Global, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Import, Import demand, Import dynamics, Import elasticity, Import growth, Import intensity, Import slowdown, Imports, Merchandise goods imports, Merchandise import data, Onshoring, Real effective exchange rates, Rebalancing, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

34
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2016/106
Stock No:

WPIEA2016106
ISBN:

9781484368626
ISSN:

1018-5941

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