Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

May 19, 2015

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Leandro Medina. Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2015) accessed November 12, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity.

Subject: Aging, Expenditure, Fiscal risks, Labor, Macroeconomic risks, Pension spending, Pensions, Public debt, Public financial management (PFM)

Keywords: Bangladesh, Bangladesh authorities, Bangladesh face, Bangladesh's government, Basic salary, Collection data, Commodity price, Commodity prices, Contingent liabilities, Debt, Debt disbursement, Debt record, Debt structure, Exchange rate, Expenditure, Fiscal risks, Global, Guarantees, IMF staff calculation, Macroeconomic risks, Pension spending, Pensions, Poverty line, Shocks to GDP growth, South Asia, Sovereign debt, Vis-à-vis budget figure, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

26
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2015/110
Stock No:

WPIEA2015110
ISBN:

9781513551081
ISSN:

1018-5941

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