Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa
April 2008
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Executive Summary also available in Português
The region's prospects continue to be promising, but global developments pose increased risks to the outlook. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should again average about 6½ percent in 2008 with oil exporters leading the way; meanwhile, growth in oil importers is expected to taper off, though only modestly. With food and energy prices still rising, inflation is projected to average about 8½ percent this year for countries in the region, setting aside Zimbabwe. Risks in 2008 are tilted to the downside, but the region is better placed today to withstand a worsening of the global environment.
Contents
Abbreviations | |
Executive Summary | |
I. | Overview |
Main Developments in 2007 | |
Macroeconomic Policies | |
Outlook for 2008 and Risks | |
Medium-Term Challenges: Unleashing the Private Sector and Reducing the Cost of Doing Business | |
Appendix 1.1 | |
II. | Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa |
The Monetary and Exchange Rate Landscape | |
Policy Challenges of Implementing Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa | |
Conclusions | |
III. | Private Capital Flows to Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Globalization's Final Frontier? |
Recent Trends in Capital Flows to Sub-Saharan African Countries | |
Factors Influencing Capital Flows in Sub-Saharan Africa | |
Evidence from Country Case Studies | |
Lessons and Policy Agenda for Sub-Saharan Africa | |
Appendix 3.1 | |
IV. | Africa's Power Supply Crisis: Unraveling the Paradoxes |
Africa's Power Sector in International Perspective | |
Africa's Acute Power Problems | |
The Way Forward | |
Statistical Appendix | |
Sub-Saharan Africa: Country Groupings | |
Data and Conventions | |
List of Tables | |
References | |
Publications of the IMF African Department, 2004-08 | |
Boxes | |
1.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa and the Global Slowdown |
1.2. | Economic Crisis in Zimbabwe |
1.3. | The Changing Nature of Public Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.4. | The Impact of High Oil Prices on Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.5. | Conflicts and Political Instability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth and Spillover Effects |
1.6. | Creditor Rights in Sub-Saharan Africa |
2.1. | Inflation Objectives for Sub-Saharan African Low-Income Countries |
2.2. | The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Sub-Saharan Africa |
2.3. | Assessing Reserve Money Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa |
2.4. | The Role of Money |
2.5. | Mozambique and Uganda: Adding Flexibility to Monetary Policy |
2.6. | Inflation Targeting in Ghana |
2.7. | Inflation Targeting: A Benchmark for Monetary Policy in Managed Floats |
2.8. | Analytic Frameworks for Monetary Policy in Low-Income Countries |
3.1. | Transition to Emerging Market Status: Where Does Africa Stand? |
3.2. | Domestic Determinants of Private Capital Inflows to Sub-Saharan African Countries |
3.3. | Are Capital Flows Good for Growth? |
3.4. | Recent Cross-Border Banking Investments |
3.5. | The Foreign Private Capital Capacity-Building Program |
4.1. | Introducing the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic |
4.2. | Regional and Economic Effects of South Africa's Power Supply Crisis |
Tables | |
1.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Indicators, 2003-08 |
A1.1. | Categorization of Sub-Saharan African Countries |
A1.2. | Non-Oil Primary Fiscal Deficits, 2002-07 |
2.1. | De Jure Monetary Policy Frameworks in Sub-Saharan Africa |
3.1. | Private Capital Flows' Volatility, 2000-07 |
3.2. | Private FDI and Portfolio Inflows and Capital Market Development |
A3.1. | Controls on Portfolio Investments and FDI in Selected African Countries |
A3.2. | Capital Account Liberalization Process in Case-Study Countries |
A3.3. | Case Study Countries: Challenges and Policy Responses |
4.1. | Emergency Power Generation in Sub-Saharan Africa |
4.2. | Private Participation Power Sector Transactions in Sub-Saharan Africa |
4.3. | Power Sector Expenditure |
4.4. | Annualized Power Sector Expenditure Requirements to 2015 |
Figures | |
1.1. | A Comparison of Growth |
1.2. | Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.3. | Regional Dynamics of Growth |
1.4. | Contribution to GDP Growth |
1.5. | Growth Volatility |
1.6. | Real Per Capita GDP Growth |
1.7. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Oil Exporters |
1.8. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Trading Gains (Losses) |
1.9. | Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.10. | Sub-Saharan Africa: External Current Account Balance |
1.11. | Commodity Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.12. | Three-Month Interbank Risks in Selected Emerging Market |
1.13. | Monetary Developments |
1.14. | Real Effective Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.15. | Real Effective Exchange Rates in the CEMAC and the WAEMU |
1.16. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Reserve Coverage |
1.17. | Credit to the Private Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.18. | Real Effective Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries with a Floating Regime |
1.19. | CSub-Saharan Africa: 2007 Exchange Rate Adjustments and Current Account Balances |
1.20. | Central Government Revenues in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.21. | CCentral Government Primary Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.22. | Central Government Social Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.23. | Low-Income Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Financing of Fiscal Deficits |
1.24. | Total Government Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.25. | Oil Prices and GDP Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.26. | Exports and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africas |
1.27. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth and Commodity Prices |
1.28. | Growth Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa |
1.29. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Reserve Coverage for Terms of Trade Shocks, 2007 |
1.30. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Doing Business, 2007 |
1.31. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Global Competitiveness Index, 2007 |
1.32. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Governance Ranking, 2000-06 |
2.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Exchange Rate Distribution, 2005-07 |
3.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Capital Inflows, 2000-07 |
3.2. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Capital Inflows, 2000-07 (Annual Averages) |
3.3. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Private Capital Inflows, 2000-07 |
3.4. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Capital Inflows, Current Account, and Reserves, 2000-07 |
3.5. | Sequencing of Capital Account Liberalization |
3.6. | Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: Composition of Capital Flows |
4.1. | Evolution of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa Relative to Other Regions |
4.2. | Electricity Prices and Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa Relative to Other Regions |
4.3. | Countries Affected by Acute Power Sector Crises in 2007 |
4.4. | Drivers of Operating Costs for Sub-Saharan African Power Systems |
4.5. | Electricity Costs and Revenues by Type of Power System (US$/kwh) |
4.6. | Average Power Sector Revenue and Various Cost Benchmarks |
4.7. | Electricity Service Coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa |
4.8. | Electricity Service Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa |
4.9. | Evaluation of Power Sector Reform |
4.10. | State-Owned Enterprise Governance Characteristics |
4.11. | Frequency Distribution of Power Sector Efficiency Indicators |
4.12. | Hidden Costs of Power Sector Inefficiency |
4.13. | Long-Term Trends in External Finance for the Sub-Saharan African Power Secto |