Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook:Middle East and Central Asia
October 2008
World Economic and Financial Surveys
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia underlines that the region has continued to experience strong growth in 2008, and the short-term outlook is generally favorable. However, inflation has emerged as a key issue, and while the global credit crunch has thus far had a limited impact on regional financial markets, the financial turmoil and slowdown in developed economies could lower growth in the period ahead. Policies will need to focus on tightening the fiscal and monetary stance where appropriate, with greater exchange rate flexibility, and continuing efforts to strengthen the resilience of financial sectors. |
View the full text (use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader).
Contents
| Assumptions and Conventions | |
| Highlights | |
| Country and Regional Groupings | |
| Recent Macroeconomic Developments | |
| World Economic Developments and Outlook | |
| MCD Region Economic Outlook | |
| Policy Issues | |
| Statistical Appendix | |
| Boxes | |
| 1 | Macroeconomic Implications of Higher Commodity Prices |
| 2 | Pass-Through of International Oil Prices in MCD Countries |
| 3 | GCC Financial Centers—From Regional to International Focus |
| 4 | Georgia—Program to Deal with the Consequences of the Conflict |
| 5 | Pakistan—Dealing with Rising Vulnerabilities |
| 6 | The Region's Oil Income Outlook |
| Figures | |
| 1 | Global Real GDP Growth |
| 2 | Real GDP Growth in the MCD Region |
| 3 | Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth in Selected Oil Exporters, 2008 |
| 4 | Unemployment Rate |
| 5a | Consumer Price Inflation: Country Aggregates |
| 5b | Consumer Price Inflation: Individual Countries |
| 6 | Real Effective Exchange Rates |
| 7 | Nominal Effective Exchange Rates |
| 8 | External Current Account Balance |
| 9 | Net Foreign Direct Investment, 2008 |
| 10 | Gross Official Reserves |
| 11a | Government Fiscal Balance: Country Aggregates |
| 11b | Government Fiscal Balance: Individual Countries |
| 12 | Total Government Debt |
| 13 | Nominal Growth Rate of Government Expenditure in Oil Exporters |
| 14 | Broad Money Growth |
| 15 | Money and Credit to the Private Sector in Low-Income Countries |
| 16 | Selected Stock Market Indicess |
| 17 | Sovereign Spread in Selected Countries |
| 18 | Global Outlook |
| 19 | Current Account Balance |
| Tables | |
| 1 | Food, Fuel, and Headline Inflation |
| 2 | Wage Increases in MCD Countries (2007-08) |
| 3 | Capital Adequacy Ratio in MCD Countries |
| 4 | Selected Oil Exporters' Break-Even Prices for 2008 Fiscal Accounts |
| Statistical Appendix Tables | |
| 1 | Real GDP Growth |
| 2 | Nominal GDP |
| 3 | GDP at Purchasing Power Parity Prices |
| 4 | Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth for Oil Exporters |
| 5 | Crude Oil Production and Exports |
| 6 | Consumer Price Inflation |
| 7 | Broad Money Growth |
| 8 | Central Government Fiscal Balance |
| 9 | Central Government Total Revenue Excluding Grants |
| 10 | Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance |
| 11 | Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Revenue |
| 12 | Central Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending |
| 13 | Total Government Debt |
| 14 | Exports of Goods and Services |
| 15 | Imports of Goods and Services |
| 16 | Current Account Balance (in billions of U.S. dollars) |
| 17 | Current Account Balance (in percent of GDP) |
| 18 | Real Effective Exchange Rates |
| 19 | Gross Official Reserves |
| 20 | Total Gross External Debt |