Policy Papers

August 26, 2016

The Fund's Income Position For FY 2016: Actual Outcome

Description: This paper reports the Fund’s income position for FY 2016 following the closing of the Fund’s accounts for the financial year and completion of the external audit. FY 2016 net income, including income from surcharges, was unchanged from the amount of SDR 998 million projected in April.  

GRA net income for FY 2016 of about SDR 1 billion has been placed to the Fund’s reserves, further strengthening the Fund’s precautionary balances, which reached SDR 15.2 billion at the end of FY 2016.  

Following the completion of the Executive Board’s review of the investment strategy for the Fixed-Income Subaccount and consistent with the discussions in April, currencies totaling about SDR 3.7 billion will be transferred to the Investment Account during September and October 2016. This comprises currencies equivalent to the net income retained in the GRA in FY 2014 (SDR 1.2 billion) and FY 2015 (SDR 1.5 billion), together with the currencies equivalent to the FY 2016 GRA net income of about SDR 1 billion.

August 24, 2016

2016 Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust - Review of Interest Rate Structure

Description: This paper reviews the interest rate structure that would apply to the PRGT in 2017–18. Based on the interest rate setting mechanism agreed in 2009, the interest rate for the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) would be zero and the rate for the Standby Credit Facility (SCF) would be 0.25 percent. The interest rate for the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) was set permanently at zero in July 2015.

Since the current mechanism was agreed, the Executive Board has granted successive exceptional interest waivers on all outstanding Fund concessional credit, setting all interest rates charged at zero percent. These waivers have been extended three times, providing interest rate relief to many low-income countries at a time when they faced considerable headwinds from the global economic environment.

A strong case remains for maintaining zero rates on Fund concessional credit at the current global economic juncture. The global outlook for LICs has not significantly improved since the last review and downside risks remain significant. At the same time, many Directors noted at the last review in 2014 that the possibility of a prolonged period of very low interest rates warrants an early re-examination of the mechanism, including an exit strategy from repeated application of the waiver, with the objective of safeguarding the self-sustaining capacity of the PRGT.

The paper seeks to respond to this call. It proposes that the PRGT interest rate mechanism be amended to accommodate anomalies created by a prolonged period of very low interest rates. Specifically, a new threshold is proposed whereby both the ECF and the SCF rate would be set at zero when the 12-month average SDR rate is less than or equal to 0.75 percent. This proposal will likely keep all PRGT interest rates under the mechanism at zero through at least 2020 given current market expectations while incurring only minimal subsidy costs and eliminating the need for continual waivers. In addition, staff proposes to waive interest rate charges on outstanding legacy balances under the Exogenous Shocks Facility (ESF), which are not determined via the interest rate mechanism, until the next review.

August 11, 2016

Staff Guidance Note for the Conduct of Ex Post Peer Reviewed Assessments of Members with Longer-Term Program Engagement

Description: This note updates guidance on key operational aspects of the policy on Longer-Term Program Engagement (LTPE). The updated guidance reflects operational changes following the Board’s decision on April 30, 2015 to replace Ex Post Assessments (EPAs) for members with LTPEs with succinct ex post peer reviewed assessments (PRAs)1 to reflect on the lessons from the past for the design of successor arrangements or usage of the Policy Support Instrument (PSI).

August 9, 2016

Quotas - Data Update and Simulations

Description: The quota database has been updated by one year through 2014. Overall, the results of the update continue the broad trends observed in previous updates, but the shifts between the main country groups are generally smaller. Using the current quota formula, the calculated quota share of Emerging Market and Developing Countries (EMDCs) as a group increases by 0.6 percentage points relative to the 2015 update to 49.3 percent, which is about half the increase in the last update.

The paper takes stock of recent discussions on the quota formula, including the outcome of the Quota Formula Review in 2013 and subsequent discussions in the context of the annual quota data updates. It also updates the illustrative simulations of possible reforms of the quota formula presented previously, using the latest data. These simulations have sought to capture possible reforms that would be broadly in line with the conclusions of the Quota Formula Review and Directors’ guidance is sought on the relative merits of these reforms and the most productive areas for future work.

Download Quota Data: Updated IMF Quota Formula Variables - September 2016

July 25, 2016

The Chairman’s Summing Up - The IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal - An Evaluation by the Independent Evaluation Office - Executive Board Meeting 16/69 - July 19, 2016

Description: Executive Directors welcomed the report by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) on the IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, and appreciated the accompanying statement by the Managing Director. They agreed that the report’s findings provide valuable insights and lessons for handling crises in members of currency unions.

Directors underscored that the work of the IEO continues to play a vital role in enhancing the learning culture within the Fund, strengthening the Fund’s external credibility, and supporting the Executive Board’s oversight responsibilities. Directors broadly shared the general thrust of the IEO’s main findings and broadly endorsed its recommendations, with some caveats.

July 22, 2016

Staff Background Paper for the G20 Surveillance Note - Priorities for Structural Reforms in G20 Countries

Description:

Structural reforms can provide a powerful lift to growth—both in the short and the long term—if they are well aligned with individual country conditions . These include an economy’s level of development, its position in the economic cycle, and its available macroeconomic policy space to support reforms. The larger a country’s output gap, the more it should prioritize structural reforms that will support growth in the short term and the long term—such as product market deregulation and infrastructure investment.

Macroeconomic support can help make reforms more effective, by bringing forward long-term gains or alleviating their short-term costs . Where monetary policy is becoming over-burdened, domestic policy coordination can help make macroeconomic support more effective. Fiscal space, where it exists, should be used to offset short-term costs of reforms. And where fiscal constraints are binding, budget-neutral reform packages with positive demand effects should take priority.

Some structural reforms can themselves help generate fiscal space. For example, IMF research finds that by boosting output, product market deregulation can help lower the debt-to-GDP ratio over time. Formulating a medium-term plan that clarifies the long-term objectives of fiscal policy can also help increase near-term fiscal space.

With nearly all G-20 economies operating at below-potential output, the IMF is recommending measures that both boost near-term growth and raise long-term potential growth. For example:

 In advanced economies, these measures include shifting public spending toward infrastructure investment (Australia, Canada, Germany, United States (US)); promoting product market reforms (Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, Korea, Italy) and labor market reforms (Canada, Germany, Japan, Korea, United Kingdom (UK), US); and fiscal structural reforms (France, UK, US). Where there is fiscal space, lowering employment protection is also recommended (Korea).

 Recommendations for emerging markets (EMs) focus on raising public investment efficiency ( India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa), labor market reforms (Indonesia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey), and product market reforms (China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa), which would boost investment and productivity within tighter budgetary constraints particularly if barriers to trade and FDI were eased (Brazil, India, Indonesia). Governance (China, South Africa) and other institutional reforms are also crucial. Where policy space is limited, adjusting the composition of fiscal policy can create space to support reforms ( Argentina, India, Mexico, Russia).

 Some commodity-exporting EMs (Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa) are facing acute challenges, with output significantly below potential and an urgent need to rebuild fiscal buffers. To bolster growth, Fund staff recommends product market and legal reforms to improve the business climate and investment; trade and FDI liberalization to facilitate diversification; and financial deepening to boost credit flows.

IMF advice also aims to promote inclusiveness and macroeconomic resilience. The Fund recommends a targeted expansion of social spending toward vulnerable groups (Mexico), social spending for the elderly poor ( Korea), and upgrading social programs for the nonworking poor (US). Recommendations to bolster macrofinancial resilience include expanding the housing supply (UK), resolving the corporate debt overhang (China, Korea), coordinating a national approach to regulating and supervising life insurers (US), and reforming monetary frameworks (Argentina, China).

July 21, 2016

FY2016 - Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn Paper

Description: Operating within a flat real budget envelope, the Fund delivered on the priorities and initiatives laid out in the Global Policy Agenda and Management’s Key Goals (MKGs). Resource pressures were addressed via implementation of streamlining initiatives, strategic reallocation of resources towards higher priority areas, and careful budget management.

In terms of outputs, spending in FY 16 continued the shift from crisis management to crisis prevention, in line with the MKGs. Output shifted moderately from multilateral surveillance and oversight of the global system to bilateral surveillance and capacity development. Lending activity expenditure remained broadly unchanged. Average country spending was broadly aligned with assessment of risk.

The net administrative budget outturn in FY 16 was $1,038 million against an approved budget of $1,052 million. The modest underspend reflects the preservation of the contingency reserve and lower-than-planned travel expenditure. Relative to FY 15, higher budget execution led to a small real (0.8 percent) year-on-year increase in net expenditures.

Total capital expenditures of $131 million were recorded in FY 16 out of the $435 million in available appropriations. HQ1 Renewal expenses made up 70 percent of the spending.

July 20, 2016

Enhancing the Effectiveness of External Support in Building Tax Capacity in Developing Countries

Description: This report responds to the February 2016 request from the G20 for the IMF, OECD, United Nations and World Bank Group to:
“…recommend mechanisms to help ensure effective implementation of technical assistance programs, and recommend how countries can contribute funding for tax projects and direct technical assistance, and report back with recommendations at our July meeting.”

The report has been prepared in the framework of the Platform for Collaboration on Tax (the “PCT”), under the responsibility of the Secretariats and Staff of the four mandated organizations. The report reflects a broad consensus among these staff, but should not be regarded as the officially endorsed views of those organizations or of their member countries.

July 15, 2016

Staff Note for the G20 - The Role of the SDR - Initial Considerations

Description: Following the recent diagnostic of the international monetary system (IMS), the IMF will explore whether a broader role for the SDR could contribute to its smooth functioning. The economic rationale for or against broader use of the SDR will be examined, focusing in particular on identifying any gaps and market failures the SDR could help address in light of the increasingly multi-polar nature of the global economy and growing financial interconnectedness.

This note sets out some initial considerations on this matter. The note sketches some key issues bearing on the role of the SDR in each of three concepts: (i) the official SDR, or “O-SDR”, the composite reserve asset issued and administered by the IMF; (ii) SDR-denominated financial market instruments, or “M-SDRs,” which could be both issued and held by any parties; and (iii) the SDR as a unit of account.

M-SDRs reduce foreign exchange and interest rate risk relative to single-currency instruments, but there are some drawbacks and challenges. The basket nature of M-SDRs would allow the volatility of returns to be lower than for a similar singlecurrency instrument.
However, the SDR only represents one of many possible sets of portfolio weights, and issuers or investors could use existing instruments to replicate their preferred weights at a relatively low cost. There are also challenges to market development, including settling and clearing of M-SDR transactions, dealing with potential basket redefinition, and fostering secondary market trading in order to generate liquidity and market depth.

There are potential benefits to using the SDR as a unit of account, which have to be weighed against other considerations. Publishing economic statistics and financial statements in SDR terms could help users identify valuation changes. Statistical authorities would need to invest in communicating the rationale for any change in practices.

While the official SDR under its current framework is not playing a significant role in the IMS, a re-examination of its role is expected to inform whether any specific reform options should be pursued. The evolution of the IMS has given rise to an active debate on how much concern is posed by high rates of reserve accumulation, global imbalances, and rising claims on reserve issuers, and on whether the O-SDR could contribute to addressing these issues.

July 13, 2016

Currency Amounts in the SDR Basket - Proposed Changes to the Rounding Methodology

Description: Currency amounts are used to determine the daily value of the SDR. Currency amounts are the number of units of each currency in the SDR basket. The value of the SDR (in U.S. dollars) is the sum of these amounts, valued at daily exchange rates of the currencies against the U.S. dollar. These currency amounts are determined on the last business day before the new SDR basket becomes effective (transition date) such that they correspond to the currency weights determined by the IMF Executive Board in the context of the SDR Review, and remain fixed over the SDR valuation period. To facilitate SDR users in adjusting their portfolios to the new basket, the IMF publishes illustrative currency amounts in the lead up to the transition date.