Policy Papers
2012
April 30, 2012
Update on the Financing of the Fund's Concessional Assistance and Debt Relief to Low-Income Member Countries
Description:
Commitments under new PRGT-supported programs are expected to increase in 2012 in part reflecting the weaker global economic outlook. PRGT commitments in 2011 amounted to SDR 1.2 billion, unchanged from their 2010 level. Staff projections suggest demand could rise to about SDR 2 billion in 2012. If all elements of the 2009 financing package are secured, the PRGT will have an annual average lending capacity of SDR 2.2 billion over 2012–14, or SDR 1.6 billion through 2015.
Additional pledges of SDR 1 billion in loan resources are still required to secure the targeted loan resources approved under the 2009 financing package. Fourteen members have so far pledged SDR 9.8 billion in new loan resources for the PRGT compared with the target of SDR 10.8 billion. New borrowing agreements totaling SDR 9.5 billion have been signed with thirteen lenders.
April 25, 2012
Staff Guidance Note on the Fund’s Engagement with Countries in Fragile Situations
Description: This note aims to provide country teams with broad guidance on engagement with countries in fragile situations. The aim of the guidance note is to help staff maintain focus on issues specific to countries in fragile situations. While engagement should focus on the issues and principles laid out in the note, there is, of course, scope for staff to tailor engagement to country specific circumstances beyond proposed practices.
April 20, 2012
Middle East and North Africa - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges - Deauville Partnership Ministerial Meeting
Description: Historic transitions in the Arab Spring countries are coming under increasing strain frommacroeconomic pressures and unmet social demands. Domestic uncertainty over the countries' future course, compounded by the global slowdown and rising oil prices, took a toll on growth during 2011. The outlook for 2012 and 2013 is equally challenging. The protracted political transition, lower global growth, and euro zone weakness are likely to result in a slow and drawn-out economic recovery, with unemployment at best stabilizing at high levels. Maintaining macroeconomic stability in this environment will be challenging, not least since policy buffers were reduced during 2011. Indeed, gross external and fiscal financing needs of MENA oilimporters are projected at about $93 and $103 billion, respectively, in 2012-13. With capital markets expected to provide only a small part of these funds, official financial support will be essential to allow countries to continue on their path toward economic transformation. But at the same time, countries need to make tangible progress on that path. This requires bold reform and modernization agendas that command broad consensus and are embedded in a sustainable medium-term macroeconomic policy framework to build confidence, anchor expectations, and pave the way for sustained and inclusive growth.
April 18, 2012
Quota Formula Review - Initial Considerations
Description: Executive Directors welcomed the opportunity to initiate discussions on the quota formula review, which is to be concluded by January 2013. They recalled that the agreement to conduct a comprehensive review of the formula was an integral part of the quota and governance reform agreed in 2010. Directors stressed the importance of agreeing on a quota formula that better reflects members’ relative positions in the global economy for future discussions on the 15th General Review of Quotas.
April 18, 2012
Managing Director's Action Plan to the International Monetary and Financial Committee
Description: As described in the latest Consolidated Multilateral Surveillance Report, policy actions in Europe and improving U.S. indicators have helped attenuate financial strains. But recent developments point to the fragility of the world economy and the need to come to grips with a formidable policy agenda. Among the challenges ahead are the immediate risks from a return of stresses in Europe and higher oil prices. Beyond that lie the risks from protracted low growth, too rapid fiscal consolidation in certain cases, deleveraging and uncertain medium-term policy frameworks in some key advanced countries. Many emerging markets may have to deal with inflation risks, elevated oil prices, the resurgence and volatility in capital inflows, and the consequences of extended credit booms. Delays in implementing global regulatory reforms also pose risks.
April 18, 2012
Managing Director's Consolidated Multilateral Surveillance Report to the International Monetary and Financial Committee
Description: After suffering a major setback, global prospects are gradually strengthening again. Improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area in response to the deepening economic crisis there have reduced the immediate threat of a sharp global slowdown. Weak recovery is likely to resume in the major advanced economies, and activity should remain relatively solid in emerging market and developing economies.
April 18, 2012
Progress Report on the Activities of the Independent Evaluation Office
Description: This report summarizes the activities of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) since the 2011 Annual Meetings. In this period, the IEO has advanced work on three ongoing evaluations: International Reserves: IMF Advice and Country Perspectives, The Role of the IMF as Trusted Advisor, and Learning from Experience at the IMF: An IEO Assessment of Self-Evaluation Systems. The IEO expects to submit these evaluations to the Executive Board over the course of the year. The IEO has begun consultations on topics for future evaluations and will present a tentative work program to the Executive Board for review in due course.
April 16, 2012
Enhancing Financial Sector Surveillance in Low-Income Countries - Financial Deepening and Macro-Stability
Description: This paper aims to widen the lens through which surveillance is conducted in LICs, to better account for the interplay between financial deepening and macro-financial stability as called for in the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review. Reflecting the inherent risk-return tradeoffs associated with financial deepening, the paper seeks to shed light on the policy and institutional impediments in LICs that have a bearing on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, macro-financial stability, and growth. The paper focuses attention on the role of enabling policies in facilitating sustainable financial deepening. In framing the discussion, the paper draws on a range of conceptual and analytical tools, empirical analyses, and case studies.
April 16, 2012
Enhancing Financial Sector Surveillance in Low-Income Countries - Background Paper
Description:
This note provides an overview of the literature on the challenges posed by shallow financial systems for macroeconomic policy implementation. Countries with shallow markets are more likely to choose fixed exchange rates, less likely to use indirect measures as instruments of monetary policy, and to implement effective counter-cyclical fiscal policies. But causation appears to work in both directions, as policy stances can themselves affect financial development. Drawing on recent FSAP reports, the note also shows that shallow financial markets tend to increase foreign exchange, liquidity management, and concentration risks, posing risks for financial stability
Also available in French
April 16, 2012
Enhancing Financial Sector Surveillance in Low-Income Countries - Case Studies
Description:
This supplement presents ten case studies, which highlight the roles of targeted policies to facilitate sustainable financial deepening in a variety of country circumstances, reflecting historical experiences that parallel a range of markets in LICs. The case studies were selected to broadly capture efforts by countries to increase reach (e.g., financial inclusion), depth (e.g., financial intermediation), and breadth of financial systems (e.g., capital market, cross-border development). The analysis in the case studies highlights the importance of a balanced approach to financial deepening. A stable macroeconomic environment is vital to instill consumer, institutional, and investor confidence necessary to encourage financial market activity. Targeted public policy initiatives (e.g., collateral, payment systems development) can be helpful in removing impediments and creating infrastructure for improved market operations, while ensuring appropriate oversight and regulation of financial markets, to address potential sources of instability and market failures.
Also available in French