Policy Papers

July 1, 2016

2016 External Sector Report

Description: After narrowing in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and remaining broadly unchanged in recent years, global imbalances increased moderately in 2015, amid a reconfiguration of current accounts and exchange rates. Shifts in 2015 were driven primarily by the uneven strength of the recovery in advanced economies, the redistributive effects of the sharp fall in commodity prices, and tighter external financing conditions for emerging markets (EMs). A relatively stronger U.S. outlook led to a further appreciation of the USD and a depreciation of the yen and the euro. The sharp decline in commodity prices, reflecting both supply shocks and concerns about rebalancing and growth in China, brought about a significant redistribution of income from commodity exporters to importers, and a weakening of commodity exporters’ currencies. Meanwhile, heightened global risk aversion, contributed to softer capital inflows and depreciation pressures in many EMs.

This moderate widening of current account imbalances was largely driven by systemic economies. Surpluses in Japan, the euro area and China grew, supported by improved terms of trade and currency depreciation, while the current account deficit in the U.S. widened amid the steep appreciation of the USD. These widening imbalances were only partially offset by narrowing surpluses in large oil exporters and smaller deficits in vulnerable EMs and some euro area debtor countries.

Similarly, excess imbalances expanded in 2015. External positions in the U.S. and Japan moved from being broadly in line with fundamentals to being “moderately weaker” and “moderately stronger”, respectively. This was partly offset by a further narrowing of excess deficits in vulnerable EMs and euro area debtor countries. Meanwhile, excess surpluses persisted among the larger surplus countries, some of which remain “substantially stronger” than fundamentals (Germany, Korea).

Currency movements since end-2015 helped to partially reverse the trends observed last year, although market volatility following the result of the U.K. referendum to leave the European Union have led to a strengthening of the USD and yen along with a weakening of the sterling, euro, and EM currencies. The implications for external assessments going forward, especially for the U.K. and the euro area, remains uncertain and will likely depend on how the transition is managed and on what new arrangements are adopted.

With output below potential in most countries, and limited policy space in many, balancing internal and external objectives will require careful policy calibration. In general, a more balanced policy mix that avoids excessive reliance on policies with significant demanddiverting effects is necessary, with greater emphasis on demand-supportive measures and structural reforms. Surplus countries with fiscal space have a greater role to play in supporting global demand while reducing external imbalances. Global collective policy action, especially if downside risks materialize, would also help address global demand weakness while mitigating its effects on external imbalances.

July 1, 2016

Gender Diversity in the Executive Board - Draft Report of the Executive Board to the Board of Governors

Description: The Report reflects discussion among Executive Directors on June 7, 2016 and responds to the April 16, 2016 Communique of the Thirty-Third Meeting of the IMFC which stated that “We reiterate the importance of maintaining the high quality and improving the regional, gender, and education diversity of the IMF’s staff, and of promoting gender diversity in the Executive Board.”

June 29, 2016

Report of the Managing Director to the Board of Governors and to the Executive Board Pursuant to Article XVIII, Section 4(c)

Description: This report is submitted pursuant the provisions of the Articles of Agreement relating to a general allocation or cancellation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR). The Articles provide for periodic consideration and decisions on SDR allocations or cancellations in the context of consecutive basic periods of normally five years of duration (Article XVIII, Section 2(a)). The Tenth Basic Period for a general allocation or cancellation of SDRs began on January 1, 2012 and is scheduled to end on December 31, 2016. The Eleventh Basic Period will commence on January 1, 2017.

June 27, 2016

Extension of the Periods for Consent to and Payment of Quota Increases

Description: This paper proposes a further six-month extension of the period for members to consent to an increase in their quotas under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas (“Fourteenth Review”) through December 30, 2016. The current deadline is due to expire on June 30, 2016. However, Board of Governors Resolution No. 66-2 provides that the Executive Board may extend the period for consent as it may determine. An extension under Resolution No. 66-2 will also extend the periods of consent for quota increases under the 2008 Reform of Quota and Voice (Resolution No. 63-2) and the Eleventh General Review of Quotas (Resolution No. 53-2).

This paper also proposes a further six-month extension of the period for payment of quota increases under the Fourteenth Review, and an extension for the payment of the quota increases under the 2008 Reform, through December 30, 2016.

June 23, 2016

Assessing Fiscal Space - An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations

Description: Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting whether a government can raise spending or lower taxes without endangering market access and debt sustainability. Making such a determination requires a comprehensive approach considering, among other things, initial economic and structural conditions, market access, the level and trajectory of public debt, present and future financing needs, and dynamic analysis of the liquidity and solvency of the fiscal position under alternative policies. Balancing these considerations involves careful analysis and judgment.

Fund staff has over the years developed a variety of indicators to inform assessments of fiscal space in bilateral and multilateral surveillance. The Fund’s core operational framework for such analysis is the debt sustainability framework, which includes a number of indicators, while allowing room for staff judgment. Surveillance also relies importantly on indicators developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD)––including those that have been used in the internal Vulnerability Exercise and Fiscal Monitors––while more recent methods based on fiscal stress tests and probabilistic approaches proposed in IMF (2016) are also promising. In addition, teams have used scenario analysis and general equilibrium modeling approaches to evaluate fiscal policy choices and their implications for sustainability. When applied to fiscal space, each indicator and approach has pros and cons and none covers all the relevant factors. Ultimately, therefore, assessing fiscal space requires judgment, informed by a broad range of tools.

This note seeks to bring together various approaches developed by Fund staff to outline a consistent set of considerations and indicators to help inform assessments of fiscal space, especially for advanced and emerging markets. The intent is to facilitate continued consistency between country team assessments by providing some common considerations and approaches to inform their judgment. The proposed framework will support Fund surveillance and policy advice going forward, informing discussions of the appropriate fiscal stance at all stages of the economic cycle.

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June 20, 2016

Implementation Plan in Response to the Board-Endorsed Recommendations for the IEO Evaluation Report on Self-Evaluation at the IMF

Description: This paper sets out Management’s response to the Independent Evaluation Office’s (IEO) evaluation report on Self-Evaluation at the IMF.

The implementation plan proposes specific actions to address the recommendations of the IEO that were endorsed by the Board in its September 18, 2015 discussion of the IEO’s report, namely: (i) adopt a broad policy or general principles for self-evaluation in the IMF, including its goals, scope, outputs, utilization, and follow-up; (ii) give country authorities the opportunity to express their views on program design and results, and IMF performance; (iii) for each policy and thematic review, explicitly set out a plan for how the policies and operations it covers will be self-evaluated; (iv) develop products and activities aimed at distilling and disseminating evaluative findings and lessons.

The implementation of some of these proposed actions is already underway. The paper also explains how implementation will be monitored.

June 8, 2016

Statement by the Managing Director on the Work Program of the Executive Board - Executive Board Meeting - June 8, 2016

Description: The Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda (GPA) presented to the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) in April called on member countries to reinforce their commitment to strong, sustainable, inclusive, job-rich, and more balanced global growth and to employ a three-pronged approach with monetary, fiscal, and structural actions (Figure 1). The global economy has been impaired by growth that has been too slow for too long, but it can get back on a stronger and safer track with a more forceful and balanced policy mix. Building on the approach of being agile, integrated, and member-focused, the GPA outlined how the Fund would support members in crafting a better policy mix toward durable global growth. The Fund would assist by clarifying the contours of available policy space, providing more tailored financial support and capacity development, and continuing to address new challenges.

June 7, 2016

Strengthening the Framework for Post Program Monitoring

Description: Post-Program Monitoring (PPM) is an important part of the Fund’s safeguards architecture. It provides a framework for closer engagement with members that have substantial outstanding Fund credit but are no longer in a program relationship, and helps identify risks and provide advice on policies that will assist these members in repaying the Fund. The significant expansion in Fund credit since the global financial crisis, much of it through medium-term financing of members with high access levels, puts a premium on this form of monitoring. The design and implementation of the current policy can be strengthened. Read More

June 3, 2016

Guidance Note on the Assessment of Reserve Adequacy and Related Considerations

Description:

This note provides operational guidance to staff on reserve adequacy discussions in the IMF’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance. It is based on the views presented in the policy paper Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Specific Proposals and the related Board discussion. The note addresses key issues related to Staff’s advice on the assessment of the adequacy of reserves and related items, including answering the following questions:

• What is the expected coverage of reserve issues at different stages of the bilateral surveillance process (Policy Note, mission, and Staff Report)?
• Which reserve adequacy tools best fit different economies based on their financial maturity, economic flexibility, and market access?
• What do possible reserve needs in mature markets relate to, and how can their adequacy be assessed?
• How can reserve adequacy discussions for emerging and deepening financial markets be tailored and applied to better evaluate reserve levels in: (i) commodity-intensive economies; (ii) countries with capital flow management measures (CFMs); and (iii) partially and fully dollarized economies?
• What reserve adequacy considerations hold for countries with limited access to capital markets? How can metrics for these economies be tailored to evaluate their reserve needs?
• How should potential drains on reserves be covered?
• What are the various measures of the cost of reserves for countries with and without market access?

May 13, 2016

Group of Twenty - Reinvigorating Trade to Support Growth: A Path Forward

Description: Reinvigorating trade integration should be a key component of the global policy agenda to boost growth. Trade policy’s new frontiers such as services, regulatory cooperation, and trade and investment complementarities carry high potential to bolster efficiency and productivity. But with governments differing on whether to continue the WTO Doha Round, there is an urgent need to identify a path for the global trading system in today’s more complex trade policy landscape. A long interregnum without a path forward would risk fragmenting the global trade system and undermining its governance.
Tackling trade policy issues important to the global economy may require flexible approaches to multilateral negotiations, including modalities such as plurilaterals.
Enhanced coherence efforts are also needed to ensure that regional trade agreements and multilateralism coexist productively.