Policy Papers
2010
April 13, 2010
Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability - Supplementary Information
Description:
The modern history of the international monetary system (IMS) starts with the shift from a bimetallic system to the Gold Standard in the 1870s and 1880s. Under the Gold Standard, the major national currencies were freely convertible to gold at a fixed exchange rate, with adjustment largely undertaken through flexible prices, wages and income. This system survived up to the outbreak of the First World War, and while it was subsequently re-established in a modified form following a painful period of post-war disinflation, the economic and political strains of the Great Depression led to the system’s ultimate collapse in the 1930s.
Negotiations between the U.K. and U.S. in the 1940s led to the post war emergence of the Bretton Woods system of fixed and adjustable exchange rates tied to the dollar, with the dollar fixed to gold and the IMF established to oversee the system. However, this system too faced repeated strains, and with the dollar’s link to gold broken and most major currencies floating in the early 1970s, the current arrangements centered on floating currencies were born. The U.S. dollar remained the key reserve currency in the new system, with U.S. Treasury Bills the major reserve asset.
April 13, 2010
Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability
Description: The last comprehensive discussion of reform of the international monetary system (IMS)—the set of official arrangements that regulate key dimensions of balance of payments—international reserves, exchange rates, current payments, and capital flows—was held nearly four decades ago. In light of repeated and costly international financial crises since then, it is timely to review the structure of the IMS to assess how it can be strengthened and made more resilient. At issue is the confluence of, on one side, an unprecedented build-up in global current account imbalances and volatile cross border capital flows, accompanied by a sharp build-up of international reserves, and on the other side, the concentration of those reserves in a few reserve currencies facing new challenges in maintaining fiscal and financial stability. As pre-crisis trends appear set to resume, this tension calls for examining their broader implications for the stability and efficiency of the current system. While the paper views the problems of the IMS through this prism in the tension between high reserve demand and narrow reserve supply, it also inevitably touches on all the components of the IMS—exchange rate arrangements, capital flows, and the global adjustment process. It should also be seen in the broader context of the Fund’s recent work on IMS stability, which started with a paper focused on exchange rate arrangements last summer and will continue in coming months with another on capital flows.
April 1, 2010
Preserving Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis
Description: The global financial crisis has had a significant impact on low-income countries (LICs)’ debt vulnerabilities. Recent debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) indicate that external and fiscal financing requirements have increased. In addition, standard measures of a country’s capacity to repay debt―GDP, exports, and fiscal revenue―are expected to be permanently lower. On average, debt ratios are therefore expected to deteriorate in the near term, particularly for public debt.
March 29, 2010
The FY2011–FY2013 Medium-Term Budget
Description:
The FY 11–13 medium-term budget (MTB) presented in this paper brings to a close the three-year restructuring effort that began with the FY 09–11 MTB. It secures savings of $100 million in real terms while providing sufficient financing for structural operations and the Fund’s response to the global financial crisis.
This budget has been crafted in a period of uncertainty regarding the final scope and duration of the financial crisis as well as the ongoing responsibilities that the Fund may retain even as the crisis unwinds. There is also uncertainty about new responsibilities that may result as a review of the Fund’s mandate is undertaken. Addressing these items will be part of the work agenda to be undertaken in the coming year.
March 29, 2010
Modernizing the Surveillance Mandate and Modalities
Description: This paper is one in a series of follow-up papers on The Fund’s Mandate—An Overview and The Fund’s Mandate—The Legal Framework discussed by the Executive Board on February 22, 2010. This paper proposes ideas to modernize the mandate and modalities of surveillance. It addresses how the Fund might increase the value of its surveillance by considering both the substance of surveillance (what it should do) and its modalities (how to do it). The main ideas focus on how the Fund can do more—and more sharply defined—multilateral surveillance, generate greater value and traction from bilateral surveillance, and integrate the two better. Options to buttress multilateral surveillance include doing more analysis of outward spillovers, holding multilateral consultations as needed on special topics to foster collaboration and collective action, and strengthening financial sector surveillance by mapping interconnectedness across borders and sectors and the transmission channels of macro-financial instability. The adoption of Multilateral Surveillance Decision could help support these ideas. Options to increase the value and traction of bilateral surveillance include promoting better cross-country understanding, with more thematic multi-country reports, producing more timely and topical reports, and increasing outreach and engagement with stakeholders.
March 26, 2010
The Fund’s Mandate—Future Financing Role
Description:
Motivation and approach. Last year’s major reforms of the Fund’s lending instruments, together with the commitment to treble its resources, made a significant contribution to global stabilization as Fund lending created room for policy accommodation and helped countries weather the worst of the crisis. While these reforms have yielded positive results, it is appropriate to ask—as the IMFC has—whether there is scope to build on this experience. This paper tries to answer this question, including by drawing on the lessons of the crisis, as perceived by policymakers, market participants, and academic observers, with whom Fund staff has consulted extensively.
While every effort has been made to explore the pros and cons of various reform options neutrally, some options are clearly more evolutionary (e.g., those building on last year’s headline introduction of the Flexible Credit Line or FCL), while others are of a more radical nature (e.g., Fund provision of pure insurance payouts or collateralized lending). This paper focuses on the former, covering the latter set of ideas in a supplement. Once the Executive Board has had a chance to comment on all options, a more defined and specific set of proposals could be developed by staff for further consideration.
March 25, 2010
Proposed Decision to Modify the New Arrangements to Borrow
Description: This paper sets forth a proposal for an expanded and more flexible NAB. The proposal was developed in close consultation with current and potential participants in the NAB, including through meetings of current and potential participants in April, July, and November 2009 in Washington, D.C. under the chairmanship of Japan.
March 24, 2010
Staff Guidance Note on the Use of Fund Resources for Budget Support
Description: This note provides operational guidance and background information on the use of Fund resources for budgetary financing. It does this in the context of concerns expressed by some Executive Board Directors that, by providing such financing, the Fund might be held accountable for the quality of budgetary spending; that repayment could be subject to country budgetary processes; and that budget financing is the role of other institutions.
March 22, 2010
Borrowing Agreement with the Swedish Riksbank
Description: In light of the multilateral effort to ensure the adequacy of the financial resources available to the International Monetary Fund (the “Fund”), and with a view to supporting the Fund’s ability to provide timely and effective balance of payments assistance to its members, the Swedish Riksbank (“Riksbank”) agrees to lend to the Fund an SDRdenominated amount up to the equivalent of EUR 2.47 billion, on the terms and conditions set out in this paper.
March 19, 2010
Financial Sector Surveillance and the Mandate of the Fund
Description:
Financial sector issues and policies are central to the Fund’s surveillance mission, as the recent crisis has amply demonstrated, and the institution has placed a high priority on enhancing the coverage and depth of analysis of financial sector issues in surveillance. Achieving this goal requires far-reaching operational and resource adjustments, which are already underway. However, these alone may not be enough. Changes in the Fund’s mandate and modalities of surveillance may also be needed.
A key goal of these changes should be to strengthen multilateral surveillance. New analytical tools and effective forms of engagement at the global level are crucial for financial surveillance, given an increasingly interconnected and globalized international financial system. At the same time, financial surveillance at the country level should also be strengthened and become a central part of the Article IV consultation process.