IMF Policy Discussion Papers
1998
July 1, 1998
Sequencing Capital Account Liberalizations and Financial Sector Reform
Description: Sequencing Capital Account Liberalizations and Financial Sector Reform
June 1, 1998
Mitigating the Social Costs of the Economic Crisis and the Reform Programs in Asia
Description: This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the likely social impact of the economic crisis and the reform programs in three Asian countries—Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand. The focus is on likely changes in real consumption expenditures arising from higher inflation and increases in unemployment. The current social policy measures adopted in the reform programs should provide significant social safety nets for the poor. However, if the social impact turns out to be larger than projected, it would be worthwhile to assess cost-effective and efficient alternatives for expanding social safety nets. The paper presents some options that could be considered.
May 1, 1998
The Payment System and Monetary Policy
Description: Achieving the primary objective of price stability without unduly compromising the operational efficiency of the payment system constitutes a major problem for central banks. Routine monetary policy presumes a given institutional and technological framework, including aspects of the payment system. Such a monetary policy concerns itself with intraday and interday credit for payments settlements and with float. Liquidity shocks and panics sometimes pose an additional challenge. In recent years, major and rapid institutional and technological changes in the payment system (mainly to lower risks and augment operational efficiency) have affected the monetary policy decision-making process, particularly in the short run.
May 1, 1998
Taxing Agriculture in Pakistan
Description: Pakistan’s economic performance has been marred by persistently high fiscal deficits which have resulted largely from the inability to raise sufficient revenues. Agriculture is a dominant sector of the economy, but generates very limited revenue from direct taxes on agricultural producers. The paper first reviews the history of attempts to tax agriculture in Pakistan, the purpose of which is to underscore the difficulty in adopting and implementing a sound agricultural tax policy. It then examines various alternatives with regard to the taxation of agricultural land and incomes. Finally, it presents the outlines of a full-fledged agricultural income tax that could be implemented within the Constitutional framework in the next three to five years.
May 1, 1998
Africa: Is This the Turning Point?
Description: This paper examines the experience of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to answer the question of whether the region is at a turning point in its economic fortunes. The improvement in growth reflects in part a rise in the utilization of existing capacity. To be sustained, however, a high rate of growth will require an increase in investment rates and/or an increase in total factor productivity—i.e., an improvement in the technological, political, administrative and economic factors that raise the rate of return on both capital and labor. The close link between investment and growth in developing countries over the long term is evident in the empirical growth literature. For developing countries in general, the elasticity of growth with respect to the investment/GDP ratio has been found to lie within the range of 0.3–0.5. Although increasing investment is crucial, action is also needed in many complementary areas in order to raise productivity and growth.
May 1, 1998
External Borrowing in the Baltics, Russia, and Other States of the Former Soviet Union: The Transition to a Market Economy
Description: The external debt of many countries of the Baltics, Russia, and the former Soviet Union has been growing rapidly in recent years and has played an important part in the transition process. However, it is vital to strike a balance between financing transition and ensuring that the external debt is not used to finance wasteful expenditures or delay the transition process. This is especially important since the rising stock of external debt makes the borrowing countries increasingly vulnerable to changes in perceived creditworthiness. Accordingly, countries must adopt policies, including pressing ahead with structural reforms, to ensure that the borrowing is used to promote sound growth.
March 1, 1998
Transparency in Central Bank Operations in the Foreign Exchange Market
Description: Transparency in the economic sphere involves making public sector action visible and understandable to the private sector. Transparency in central bank operations can be seen a complement to the greater transparency being established in policy formulation. Among the most important areas in this regard and the central bank’s operations in the foreign exchange market. This paper looks at the respective roles of overt and covert foreign exchange market operations, and considers that each may be appropriate under particular conditions. Reconciling covert operations with transparency requires rules for full disclosure with as short a lag as possible.
March 1, 1998
Aid Effectiveness: A Survey of the Recent Empirical Literature
Description: The preponderance of evidence from the empirical literature on aid effectiveness suggests that development aid has not had a significant impact on growth in recipient countries. However, there is some evidence that aid has had positive effects when the policy environment has been conducive to growth. Regarding the relationship between aid and the main channels through which its impact on growth could flow—investment and domestic saving—the evidence is mixed, with some indication that aid has had a positive impact where adjustment efforts have been sustained.
1997
December 1, 1997
Bank Soundness and Currency Board Arrangements: Issues and Experience
Description: Bank Soundness and Currency Board Arrangements: Issues and Experience
November 1, 1997
Legal and Institutional Obstacles to Growth and Business in Russia
Description: Although financial stabilization has laid the foundation for growth, structural reform of the economy will determine whether Russia achieves sustained medium-term growth. The next step for Russia is to create an institutional and regulatory environment that fosters investment and promotes new private sector activity. This paper examines the most critical reforms for promoting private sector development: reforming the tax system, reducing red tape and bureaucratic corruption, strengthening the judicial system, and improving capital market infrastructure.