IMF Staff Country Reports

Bulgaria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria

June 13, 2024

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International Monetary Fund. European Dept. "Bulgaria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria", IMF Staff Country Reports 2024, 163 (2024), accessed November 21, 2024, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400276156.002

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Summary

The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Bulgarian economy has shown resilience through a succession of shocks and is achieving a soft landing. Growth slowed in 2023 to 1.8 percent driven by a decline in private investment due to uncertainty and by the unwinding of the inventory buildup of 2021–2022. Growth is expected to rebound this year thanks to the recovery in demand from key trading partners, which will spur exports and private investment, while public investment is to be supported by EU funds. Despite sustained wage and pension growth and inflationary pressures from an expansionary 2024 budget, inflation is projected to continue declining owing to the projected continued fall in global food and energy prices, but it has remained higher than in many European peers. Deep structural reforms are needed to foster higher and more inclusive growth. Addressing declining potential growth and slow income convergence requires containing the decline in the labor force, more investment, higher productivity, greater competitiveness, and further integration into global and regional value chains.

Subject: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Income, International organization, Labor, Monetary policy, National accounts, Pension spending, Revenue administration, Wages

Keywords: EU grant, Fiscal stance, Global, IMF's article, IMF's transparency policy, Income, Pension spending, Policy discussion, Policy measure, Potential GDP, Wages

Publication Details

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