2021  Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

Toward an Inclusive and Resilient Recovery

November 4-5, 2021

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva opens the 22nd IMF Annual Research Conference.

The International Monetary Fund will hold the 22nd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference virtually on November 4-5, 2021.

It is over a year since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and there remains tremendous uncertainty around the evolution of the pandemic. Much depends on the outcome of the ongoing race between a mutating virus and multiple vaccines, and on the ability of policies to provide effective support until we are past this health crisis. After a historic collapse in the first half of 2020, the global economy has partially recovered but prospects diverge dramatically across and within countries. The inequity in access to vaccines, the wide disparities in fiscal space across countries, and structural differences can exacerbate these divergences.

In this context, the 2021 IMF Annual Research Conference will focus on strategies to bring about a resilient recovery by boosting growth and reducing inequality across and within countries. Resilience will require policies to support growth and restore confidence, including the appropriate fiscal-monetary policy mix, addressing the debt overhang, and mitigating the negative impact on employment and income distribution. The conference will bring together academics and policy makers, foster innovative research, and provide a platform for a fruitful exchange of views.

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      Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva opens the 22nd IMF Annual Research Conference.

      Agenda

      Thursday, November 4, 2021

      9:00–9:15 am

      Opening Remarks—Kristalina Georgieva (Managing Director, IMF)

      9:15–10:45 am

      Session 1: Vaccines

      Chair: Antonio Spilimbergo (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF)

      COVID-19 Vaccination and Financial Frictions in Emerging Markets
      Cristina Arellano (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and University of Minnesota), Yan Bai (University of Rochester) and Gabriel Mihalache (Stony Brook University)
      Paper | Presentation
      Discussant: Pierre Yared (Columbia University)
      Presentation

      COVID-19 Vaccines: A Shot in Arm for the Economy
      Niels-Jakob Hansen (IMF) and Rui Mano (IMF)
      Discussant: Aaron Flaaen (Federal Reserve Board)

      10:45–11:00 am

      ***Coffee Break***

      11:00–12:00 pm

      Uneven Distribution of Vaccines, Divergent Recovery, and Policy Responses in Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets

      A conversation between Gita Gopinath (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF) and Raghuram Rajan (University of Chicago, Booth School of Business)

      12:00–1:30pm

      Session 2: Fiscal Policy

      Chair: Vitor Gaspar (Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF)

      A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Policy
      Atif Mian (Princeton University), Ludwig Straub (Harvard University) and Amir Sufi (Chicago Booth)
      Paper | Presentation
      Discussant: Alberto Martin (CREI)
      Presentation

      The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures
      Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln (Goethe Universität Frankfurt), Dirk Krueger (University of Pennsylvania), Andre Kurmann (Drexel University), Etienne Lale (UQAM), Alexander Ludwig (Goethe Universität Frankfurt), and Irina Popova (Goethe Universität Frankfurt)
      Paper | Presentation
      Discussant: Matthias Doepke (Northwestern University)
      Presentation

       1:30–2:00 pm  ***Lunch Break***
       2:00–4:00 pm

       Session 3: Distributional Impacts of the Pandemic

      Chair: Petya Koeva Brooks (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF)

      Macroeconomic Effects of COVID-19 Across the World Income Distribution
      Titan Alon (University of California San Diego), Minki Kim (University of California San Diego), David Lagakos (Boston University), and Mitchell VanVuren (University of California San Diego)
      Paper | Presentation
      Discussant: Jonathan Heathcote (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) 
      Presentation

      A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality and the Output-Pandemia Tradeoff
      Enrique Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania), Eugenio Rojas (University of Florida), Linda Tesar (University of Michigan) and Jing Zhang (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
      Paper | Presentation
      Discussant: Alessandra Fogli (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) 
      Presentation

      The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the COVID19 Pandemic
      Olivier Coibion (University of Texas, Austin), Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley) and Michael Weber (University of Chicago)
      Paper | Presentation
      Discussant: Fernanda Nechio (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
      Presentation

       4:00–4:15 pm  ***Coffee Break***
       4:15–5:30 pm

      Mundell-Fleming Lecture: International Macroeconomics: From the Great Financial Crisis to the Great Lockdown, and Beyond

      Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Management, University of California, Berkeley)
      Presentation

      Introduction by Gita Gopinath (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF)

      Friday, November 5, 2021

       9:00–10:00 am

      Panel Discussion: Uncertainty and Restoring Confidence Following the Pandemic

      Moderator: Martin Wolf (Financial Times)

      Panelists:
      Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University)
      Silvana Tenreyro (London School of Economics and Bank of England)

       10:00–10:30 am  ***Coffee Break***
       10:30–12:30pm

      Session 4: Supply Chains

      Chair: Changyong Rhee (Director, Asia and Pacific Department, IMF)

      Production Networks and Firm-level Elasticities of Substitution
      Brian Cevallos Fujiy (University of Michigan), Devaki Ghose (The World Bank) and Gaurav Khanna (University of California, San Diego)
      Paper | Presentation
      Discussant: Ana Cecilia Fieler (Yale University)
      Presentation

      Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China
      Raphaël Lafrogne-Joussier (CREST-Ecole Polytechnique), Julien Martin (Université du Québec à Montréal) and Isabelle Mejean (CREST-Ecole Polytechnique)
      Paper | Presentation
      Discussant: Rudolfs Bems (IMF) Presentation

      The Transmission Mechanisms of International Business Cycles: Output Spillovers through Trade and Financial Linkages
      Falk Bräuning (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) and Viacheslav Sheremirov (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)
      Paper | Presentation
      Discussant: Javier Cravino (University of Michigan)
      Presentation

       12:30–1:30 pm ***Lunch Break*** 
       1:30–3:00 pm

      Session 5: Mitigation Policies

      Chair: Tobias Adrian (Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF)

      The Effectiveness of Job-Retention Schemes: COVID-19 Evidence from the German States
      Shekhar Aiyar (IMF) and Mai Dao (IMF)
      Paper | Presentation
      Discussant: Stéphane Carcillo (OECD)
      Presentation

      The Distribution of Crisis Credit: Effects on Firm Indebtedness and Aggregate Risk
      Federico Huneeus (Central Bank of Chile), Joseph Kaboski (University of Notre Dame), Mauricio Larrain (PUC and CMF), Sergio Schmukler (The World Bank) and Mario Vera (CMF) Presentation
      Discussant: Giovanni Dell’Ariccia (IMF)
      Presentation

       3:00 pm Closing Remarks

      Conference Organizing Committee: Emine Boz (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review), Andrei Levchenko (Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review and the University of Michigan), Prachi Mishra (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review), and Joannes Mongardini (IMF, Deputy Division Chief, Research Department).

      Conference Coordinators: Tracey Lookadoo and Ariana Tayebi 

      Disclaimer: This web page contains links to papers that will be presented at the 22nd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC). The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.