21st Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference
Living in the Extreme: Economics of Pandemics, Climate Change and Tail Risks
November 5-6, 2020
The International Monetary Fund held the 21st Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference virtually on November 5-6, 2020.
Extreme events pose enormous challenges to the global economy, as evidenced by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the increased frequency of disasters due to climate change. During such events, historical patterns and conventional approaches become obsolete. Decisions need to be made with limited information about the facts on the ground and with far-from-accurate forecasts about the future. When extreme events are global, there is diminished scope for international risk sharing, and pressures on government institutions, domestic and international, become acute. In light of these challenges, this year’s conference focused on “Living in the Extreme: Economics of Pandemics, Climate Change and Tail Risks.” The conference brought together researchers and policymakers to discuss innovative research in this area and facilitate the exchange of views.
For questions regarding the conference, please email ARC@imf.org.
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Thursday, November 5, 2020 |
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9:30–9:35 am |
Opening Gita Gopinath (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF) |
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9:35–11:35 am |
Session 1: Financial Markets and Cross-Border Flows
After COVID-19 Chair: Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (Assistant Director, Research Department, IMF and University of Maryland Neil Moskowitz Professor of Economics) Stock Prices, Lockdowns, and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus
Steven J. Davis (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago),
Dingqian Liu (American University) and Xuguang
Simon Sheng (American University)
Discussant: Stefano Giglio (Yale School of Management) Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on/Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk
Anusha Chari (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill),
Karlye Dilts Stedman (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City), and
Christian Lundblad (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
Discussant: Mahvash Qureshi (IMF) Aggregate Balance Sheet Effects of Exchange Rates at the Onset of COVID-19 Crisis Galina Hale (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) and Luciana Juvenal (IMF)
Discussant: Kristin Forbes (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
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11:35–11:45 am |
***Coffee Break*** |
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11:45–1:00 pm |
Session 2: COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy Chair: Christopher Erceg (Deputy Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF) Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?
Veronica Guerrieri (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago),
Guido Lorenzoni (Northwestern University), Ludwig
Straub (Harvard University), and Iván Werning (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Discussant: Fabrizio Perri (Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis) Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?
Vadim Elenev (Johns Hopkins University), Tim
Landvoigt (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania), and
Stijn Van Neiweurburgh (Columbia Business School)
Discussant:
Giovanni Dell’Ariccia (IMF) |
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1:00–1:45 pm |
***Lunch Break*** |
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1:45–2:45 pm |
Policy Discussion I: Policy Responses to
Climate-Related Disasters Moderators:
Kristalina Georgieva
(Managing Director, IMF) Panelists: Mark Carney (UN) William Nordhaus (Yale University) |
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2:45–3:00 pm |
***Coffee Break*** |
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3:00–4:15 pm |
Mundell-Fleming Lecture by Carmen Reinhart (The World Bank): Debt and Financial Crises: Implications for the Post-COVID Landscape Introduction by Gita Gopinath (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF) |
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Friday, November 6, 2020 |
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9:30–11:30 am |
Session 3: Natural Disasters and Extreme Events Chair: Antonio Spilimbergo (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF) Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries
Alessandro Cantelmo (Bank of Italy), Giovanni
Melina (IMF), and Chris Papageorgiou (IMF
Discussant: François Gourio (Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago) Natural Disasters, Climate Change, and Sovereign Risk
Enrico Mallucci (Federal Reserve Board)
Discussant: Laura Alfaro (Harvard Business School) The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters
Brigitte Roth Tran (Federal Reserve Board) and
Daniel Wilson (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Discussant: Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley) |
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11:30–11:45 am |
***Coffee Break*** |
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11:45–1:00 pm |
Session 4: Global Supply Chains, Globalization and
COVID-19 Chair: Linda Tesar (Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review and University of Michigan) Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic Barthélémy Bonadio (University of Michigan), Zhen Huo (Yale University), Andrei A. Levchenko (University of Michigan), and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (University of Texas at Austin) Discussant: Lorenzo Caliendo (Yale University)
Bomin Jiang (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Daniel Rigobon (Princeton University), and
Roberto Rigobon (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Discussant: David Baqaee (University of California, Los
Angeles) |
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1:00–1:45 pm |
***Lunch Break*** |
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1:45–3:00 pm |
Session 5: Heterogenous Effects of COVID-19 Chair: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Management, University of California, Berkeley) How do People Respond to Small Probability Events with Large, Negative Consequences?
Martin Eichenbaum (Northwestern University), Miguel Godinho de Matos (Católica Lisbon School of Business and Economics), Francisco Lima (Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa), Sergio Rebelo (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University), and Mathias Trabandt (Freie Universität Berlin, DIW and IWH)
Discussant: Francisco Buera (Washington University) Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age
Francesca Caselli (IMF), Francesco Grigoli (IMF), Damiano Sandri (IMF), and Antonio
Spilimbergo (IMF)
Discussant: Stephen Redding (Princeton University) |
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3:00–3:15 pm |
***Coffee Break*** |
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3:15–4:15 pm |
Policy Discussion II: COVID-19: Policy Response and
International Aspects Moderator: Gita Gopinath (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF) Panelists: Penny Goldberg (Yale University) Paul Krugman (City University of New York) |
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4:15 pm |
Closing Remarks Gita Gopinath (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF) |
Conference Program Committee: Emine Boz (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review) and Linda Tesar (Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review and the University of Michigan)
Conference Coordinators: Tracey Lookadoo and Ariana Tayebi
Disclaimer: This web page contains links to papers that will be presented at the 21st Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC). The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.