IMF Executive Board Completes the Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility for Liberia, and Approves US$23.64 Million Disbursement
November 24, 2021
- The completion of the third review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) enables an immediate disbursement of US$23.64 million.
- Restoring macroeconomic stability to lay the foundations for sustainable inclusive growth and addressing weaknesses in governance remain the main program objectives.
- Economic activity is projected to expand by 3.6 percent in 2021, thereby restoring pre-pandemic levels, with prospects for solid medium-term growth provided the reform program remains on track.
- Liberia’s share of the IMF’s allocation of SDRs to its membership in August 2021 will be used to strengthen Liberia’s international reserve position and to help finance its vaccination program and public investment projects.
WASHINGTON, DC: Today, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the third review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The four-year ECF arrangement, with a total access of SDR 155 million (60 percent of quota or about US$214.30 million) was approved by the IMF Executive Board on December 11, 2019. Completion of the third review enables the immediate disbursement of SDR 17 million (US$23.64 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 68 million (US$94.8 million). On August 23, 2021, Liberia received SDR 247.7 million (US$345.3 million) in the context of the general SDR allocation to the IMF’s membership.
Program performance has been mixed, with a favorable fiscal outturn but delays in the implementation of the structural reform agenda. Despite the challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, the authorities have kept the program broadly on track and maintained macroeconomic stability, with the fiscal deficit slightly declining to 4.2 percent of GDP thanks to higher grants, and inflation receding to 13 percent in 2020. While the economy contracted by 3 percent in 2020, for 2021, growth of 3.6 percent is expected, with the fiscal deficit declining further to 2.4 percent of GDP, and inflation reaching the single digits.
The Executive Board granted a waiver of nonobservance of the end-December 2020 quantitative performance criterion on net internal reserves on the basis of corrective action and a waiver of nonobservance of the continuous performance criterion on external arrears of the central government based on its minor nature.
Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Bo Li, Acting Chair and Deputy Managing Director, made the following statement:
“The economy is on track to rebound strongly next year, following the setback from the COVID-19 pandemic. The medium-term outlook is favorable and the authorities are committed to steadfast implementation of their macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform program.
“The authorities intend to use the new SDR allocation to strengthen the reserve position, increase spending on the vaccination program, support high-quality development projects, and retire expensive debt. Fiscal reforms should focus on containing wage bill, enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, improving the quality of public spending, and operationalizing a Treasury Single Account. The authorities are committed to refraining from monetary financing of the budget and non-concessional external borrowing. Timely publication of public procurement information and audits of the government’s Annual Financial Statements remains a priority.
“The accommodative monetary policy stance improves liquidity and supports the recovery. The upcoming currency changeover operation brings benefits but requires strong efforts to manage operational risks and the further elaboration of the time-bound implementation plan to ensure a smooth transition. Further efforts are needed to enhance the central banks’ independence, governance, and transparency.
“Strengthening and developing the financial sector remains a priority. Ongoing bank restructuring and the bolstering of the supervisory toolkit are welcomed measures. The authorities are committed to addressing the high levels of non-performing loans and weaknesses in the AML/CFT regime.
“Efforts to fight corruption are key to the success of the program and better development prospects for the country. While the recent improvements in transparency and the governance framework are welcome, more rigorous implementation of reforms would help to ensure tangible results. It will be important to accelerate structural reforms to improve the business climate for private sector development.”
Table 1. Liberia: Selected Economic Indicators (SEI), 2019-26
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
||||||||||
Est. |
Est. |
1st & 2nd Review |
Proj. |
1st & 2nd Review |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
||||||||
(Annual percentage change) |
|||||||||||||||||
Real sector |
|||||||||||||||||
Real GDP |
-2.5 |
-3.0 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
|||||||
of which, Mining & panning |
13.2 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
7.0 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
5.7 |
6.8 |
7.5 |
5.4 |
|||||||
of which, Non-mining |
-4.7 |
-3.8 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
5.6 |
5.2 |
5.7 |
|||||||
Nominal non-mining per capita GDP
|
554 |
529 |
527 |
584 |
537 |
618 |
625 |
655 |
686 |
723 |
|||||||
Nominal GDP (millions of U.S. dollars) |
3,080 |
3,037 |
3,107 |
3,426 |
3,247 |
3,698 |
3,847 |
4,143 |
4,464 |
4,810 |
|||||||
Inflation |
|||||||||||||||||
Consumer prices (annual average) |
27.0 |
17.0 |
9.8 |
8.4 |
7.0 |
11.5 |
8.3 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|||||||
Consumer prices (end of period) |
20.3 |
13.1 |
8.0 |
9.7 |
6.0 |
12.3 |
6.4 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|||||||
Population (millions) |
4.6 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.4 |
|||||||
(Percent of GDP) |
|||||||||||||||||
Central government operations1 |
|||||||||||||||||
Total revenue and grants |
27.4 |
31.2 |
29.2 |
30.7 |
28.8 |
28.9 |
28.0 |
28.5 |
28.2 |
27.7 |
|||||||
Total revenue |
13.9 |
15.8 |
15.3 |
17.8 |
16.6 |
17.2 |
17.4 |
17.4 |
17.7 |
17.9 |
|||||||
Grants |
13.5 |
15.3 |
13.9 |
12.9 |
12.2 |
11.7 |
10.5 |
11.1 |
10.5 |
9.8 |
|||||||
Total expenditure |
32.2 |
35.4 |
32.2 |
33.1 |
31.2 |
32.9 |
30.0 |
30.2 |
29.6 |
29.1 |
|||||||
Current expenditure2 |
21.4 |
25.1 |
21.2 |
22.6 |
19.9 |
21.2 |
19.5 |
18.5 |
18.0 |
17.8 |
|||||||
Capital expenditure |
10.8 |
10.3 |
11.1 |
10.5 |
11.3 |
11.7 |
10.5 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.3 |
|||||||
Overall fiscal balance, including grants2 |
-4.8 |
-4.2 |
-3.0 |
-2.4 |
-2.4 |
-4.0 |
-2.1 |
-1.7 |
-1.5 |
-1.4 |
|||||||
Overall fiscal balance, excluding grants2 |
-18.3 |
-19.6 |
-16.9 |
-15.3 |
-14.5 |
-15.8 |
-12.6 |
-12.8 |
-12.0 |
-11.2 |
|||||||
Total public debt |
48.9 |
61.8 |
62.0 |
56.1 |
63.5 |
59.0 |
59.4 |
56.2 |
53.2 |
50.1 |
|||||||
Public external debt3 |
35.2 |
40.9 |
42.8 |
38.3 |
45.2 |
38.1 |
38.7 |
37.4 |
36.8 |
36.3 |
|||||||
Public domestic debt4 |
13.6 |
20.9 |
19.2 |
17.9 |
18.4 |
20.9 |
20.6 |
18.8 |
16.4 |
13.9 |
|||||||
(Percent, unless otherwise indicated) |
|||||||||||||||||
M2/GDP |
20.9 |
25.5 |
22.3 |
24.6 |
22.6 |
23.6 |
24.2 |
24.2 |
24.2 |
24.2 |
|||||||
Credit to private sector (percent of GDP) |
15.3 |
16.4 |
16.1 |
16.4 |
16.2 |
16.6 |
17.2 |
17.3 |
17.3 |
17.4 |
|||||||
Credit to private sector (annual percent change) |
-11.3 |
5.5 |
4.0 |
12.7 |
5.1 |
9.4 |
7.9 |
8.1 |
8.2 |
8.2 |
|||||||
(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) |
|||||||||||||||||
External sector |
|||||||||||||||||
Current account balance |
|||||||||||||||||
including grants |
-19.6 |
-16.3 |
-22.2 |
-17.9 |
-22.6 |
-18.9 |
-19.9 |
-19.9 |
-19.3 |
-18.3 |
|||||||
excluding grants |
-25.0 |
-23.7 |
-36.1 |
-23.7 |
-34.8 |
-24.1 |
-24.2 |
-24.6 |
-23.8 |
-22.5 |
|||||||
Trade balance |
-12.8 |
-12.9 |
-18.9 |
-12.6 |
-18.3 |
-10.8 |
-10.2 |
-9.4 |
-7.1 |
-4.3 |
|||||||
Exports |
17.5 |
20.0 |
14.9 |
23.1 |
14.9 |
23.3 |
23.7 |
23.2 |
24.3 |
26.3 |
|||||||
Imports |
-30.3 |
-32.9 |
-33.8 |
-35.7 |
-33.2 |
-34.1 |
-33.8 |
-32.6 |
-31.4 |
-30.6 |
|||||||
Grants (donor transfers, net) |
5.4 |
7.3 |
13.9 |
5.7 |
12.2 |
5.2 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
|||||||
Gross official reserves (millions of U.S. dollars) |
292 |
358 |
403 |
716 |
429 |
719 |
769 |
779 |
811 |
846 |
|||||||
Months of next year’s imports |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
4.4 |
3.0 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
|||||||
CBL's net int'l reserves (millions of U.S. dollars) |
27 |
0 |
70 |
392 |
75 |
362 |
401 |
444 |
504 |
575 |
|||||||
Sources: Liberian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. |
|||||||||||||||||
1 Central government operation is based on a commitment basis and refers to the budgetary central government operations and off-budget projects. |
|||||||||||||||||
2 Projections for 2022 include bank restructuring costs of 0.3 percent of GDP as expenditure. |
|||||||||||||||||
3 Ratios are calculated using external debt (in USD) evaluated at the end of period exchange rate over GDP (in USD) evaluated at the period average exchange rate. |
|||||||||||||||||
4 Including the central government debts from the Central Bank of Liberia. |
IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS
PRESS OFFICER: Meera Louis
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org