Nowcasting (NWC)
Deadline passed
Session No.: AT 24.10
Location: Ebene, Mauritius
Date: April 8-19, 2024 (2 weeks)
Delivery Method: In-person Training
Primary Language: English
Interpretation Language: French Portuguese
Target Audience
Junior and middle-level officials from Ministries of Finance, Central Banks, and other interested public institutions.
Qualifications
Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience, a basic understanding of time-series econometrics and be comfortable using EViews (econometric software package). It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed a few general macroeconomic courses, such as Macroeconomic Forecasting and Analysis (MFA), Macroeconomic Diagnostic (MDS), face-to-face or online.
Course Description
This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, provides participants with cutting-edge nowcasting tools that familiarize them with the concepts and methods to incorporate high-frequency economic indicators into the forecasting process, while integrating this training into technical assistance on data compilation and dissemination. Each topic is complemented by hands-on workshops and assignments designed to illuminate the steps required to formulate a nowcasting model and generate a nowcast. The NWC course is five days in face-to-face mode, or nine days in virtual mode.
Course Objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
- Understand and be proficient in the steps required to manage time-series data in EViews, estimate an OLS regression and calculate its associated forecasts in EViews.
- Formulate several useful statistical procedures in EViews, including consolidation of time series from higher to lower frequencies; interpolation techniques; seasonal adjustment; and use of leading indicators.
- Identify appropriate high-frequency indicators useful for the nowcasting macroeconomic variables and prepare them for use in a nowcasting exercise.
- Formulate and estimate a nowcasting regression using several approaches (including Bridge, MIDAS, and U-MIDAS estimators).
- Generate a nowcast from the base regression and consolidate competing forecasts using combination forecasts.
- Evaluate the accuracy of the nowcast using several forecasting performance indicators.
- Apply the nowcasting tools to their own country data and interpret the nowcast appropriately in policy making settings.
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