IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), Interim Assessment, Crisis in Asia: Regional and Global Implications, December 1997--Contents

Transcript of a Press Conference by Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department - December 19, 1997

WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS
World Economic Outlook
INTERIM ASSESSMENT

Crisis in Asia: Regional and Global Implications
December 1997

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
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Contents

	Assumptions and Conventions

	Preface

Chapter I. 66k pdf file	Overview

Chapter II. 215k pdf file	Buildup to Present Difficulties
		Successful Performance Changes in External Environment Macroeconomic Management and Exchange Arrangements Financial Sector and Other Structural Weaknesses Box Overconsumption Versus Overinvestment: The Crises in Mexico and Thailand Compared Tables Selected Asian Economies: Capital Flows International Bank Lending to East Asia Figures Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP Selected Asian Economies: Consumer Price Inflation Selected Asian Economies: Current Account Balances Selected Asian Economies: Sectoral Financial Balances Selected Economies: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates Selected Asian Economies: Exchange Rates Selected Asian Economies: Export Market Growth Selected Asian Economies: Growth in Export Revenues Selected Asian Economies: Foreign Exchange Reserves
		Box 1. Mexico and Thailand: Private Consumption and Private Gross Fixed Investment

Chapter III. 182k pdf file	Onset of the Crisis and Its Evolution
		Phase I (January–April 1997): Lead-Up to the Crisis in Thailand Phase II (May–Beginning of July 1997): The Thai Crisis Phase III (Beginning of July–Mid-October 1997): Crisis Engulfs the ASEAN-4 Phase IV (Mid-October–Mid-December 1997): Spillovers Across Global Financial Markets Figures Selected Economies: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates Selected Economies: Three-Month Interest Rates Selected Economies: Equity Prices Selected Yield Spreads over U.S. Treasury Bonds Selected Economies: Secondary Market Yield Spreads on U.S. Dollar-Denominated Eurobonds Selected World Equity Prices Selected Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates and Bond Yields Emerging Market Economies: Private Market Financing

Chapter IV. 116k pdf file	Economic Developments and Financial Conditions in the Advanced Economies
		Box Japan: Financial Sector Fragilities and the Stock Market Figures Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates Major Industrial Countries: Yield Curves Major Industrial Countries: Unemployment Rates Selected European Union Countries and the United States: Indicators of Consumer Confidence Selected European Union Countries and the United States: Indicators of Business Confidence

Chapter V. 83k pdf file	The Global Outlook: How Much Has It Changed?
		The Revised Baseline Alternative Scenarios Boxes Effects of the East Asian Financial Crises on Trade with Industrial Countries Alternative Scenarios: Assumptions and Interpretation Tables Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections Revisions to World Economic Outlook Projections for Selected Asian Countries Major Industrial Countries: Actual and Structural Budget Balances for General Government Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, and Newly Industrialized Economies: Net Capital Flows Overview of Current Account Projections Selected Countries: GDP Growth Forecasts Alternative Scenarios: Some Simulation Results
		Box 3. Industrial Countries: Shares of Trade with Emerging Market Economies and Ratios of Trade to GDP

Chapter VI. 83k pdf file	Conclusions and Policy Considerations
		Box Policy Responses to Exchange Market Crises Figures Box 5. Short-Term Interest Rates in Selected Crisis Episodes

Statistical Appendix 116k pdf file	Statistical Appendix
		Assumptions List of Tables

Selected Topics 33k pdf file	World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–97