Regional Economic Outlook

Front Matter

Chapter 1: Global Economy in Transition and Outlook for the United States and Canada
As the world economy undergoes key transitions, the pace of global activity has slowed amid higher financial market volatility. In advanced economies, a modest recovery continues, but unevenly. An expanding U.S. economy, led by consumption and job creation, has enabled interest rate lift-off toward gradual monetary normalization. This transition suggests diverging influences from major central banks over global financial conditions and appreciation pressures on the U.S. dollar. In emerging market economies, growth continues to slow, led by China as it rebalances and by continued stress in several large economies in recession. Financial conditions have tended to tighten and uncertainty has risen amid concerns of slower growth and lack of policy space. Alongside this, commodity prices remain weak—notably, in oil markets where a supply glut has led to appreciably lower prices since last year. Consequently, Canada’s economy is likely to see continued sluggish growth before gradually strengthening as it navigates lower oil prices. The main global risks stem from these ongoing transitions and could derail growth if not managed well. Policy priorities include managing vulnerabilities and rebuilding resilience to transition risks while supporting near-term growth, and enhancing productivity and potential growth through crucial structural reforms. Read more...

Chapter 2: Latin America and the Caribbean: Managing Transitions
As the global recovery continues to struggle to gain its footing, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to be negative for the second consecutive year in 2016. The regional recession masks the fact that most countries continue to grow, modestly but surely, with the contraction driven by developments in a few others. While the external environment has had a differentiated impact on the region—with South America heavily affected by the decline in commodity prices and Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean benefiting from the U.S. recovery and, in most cases, lower oil prices—disparities in growth performance also reflect domestic factors. Countries with sound domestic fundamentals continue to adjust relatively smoothly, but domestic imbalances and rigidities have heavily amplified the effects of external shocks in others. In managing the transition to persistently lower commodity prices, policies should focus on preserving buffers and boosting long-term growth. Read more...

Chapter 3: Understanding Corporate Vulnerabilities in Latin America
Firms in Latin America are facing tighter financial market conditions at the global level amid lower potential growth and challenging macroeconomic adjustments at home. This chapter quantifies the impact of company-specific, country-specific, and global factors in driving nonfinancial corporate risk. The analysis suggests that all three factors play a role, albeit to varying degrees and with different implications across countries in the region. Overall, macroeconomic domestic factors, such as the pace of currency depreciation and higher sovereign spreads, have contributed to an increase in corporate risk since 2011, underscoring the importance of robust policy frameworks. The analysis also finds that external conditions—in particular measures of global risk aversion (such as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, VIX)—constitute a dominant driver of corporate risk. Thus, a sustained reversal of the still benign global market conditions could place significant added pressure on firms in the region. Finally, weak firm fundamentals, such as high leverage and low profitability, are also associated with elevated corporate risks. All things considered, solid macroeconomic policy frameworks must be complemented by appropriate monitoring of systemic risks in the corporate sector and, when needed, by policies that facilitate corporate balance sheet repair that will help limit financial spillovers from corporate woes in the coming years. Read more...

Chapter 4: Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Latin America
Recent currency depreciations are expected to create inflation pressure across Latin America, though more modest than in the past. Improvements in monetary frameworks over the past two decades have led to substantial and generalized declines in exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices. In countries with credible monetary policy frameworks, policymakers have space to allow relative prices to adjust through exchange rate depreciation without compromising inflation objectives, as long as medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. Greater vigilance is warranted in economies that show evidence of sizable second-round effects. Read more...

Chapter 5: Infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean
Inadequate infrastructure has been widely viewed as one of the principal barriers to growth and development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Despite the fact that the region’s infrastructure network has been upgraded over the past decade and is broadly comparable with those in other emerging market economies, infrastructure quality across individual countries often compares poorly with their export rivals and, more importantly, considerable catch-up is still required relative to advanced economies. The improvement in infrastructure quality over the past decade reflected both an increase in public investment, facilitated by the commodity boom, and greenfield investment by the private sector, notably in sectors where regulatory impediments had been alleviated. Deepening domestic capital markets helped finance an increasing fraction of private investment in local currency. For most LAC countries, the efficiency of public investment remains below that achieved by advanced economies, notwithstanding improvements in fiscal institutions. Reasonably sound frameworks for public-private partnerships in some large economies should be replicated by others to crowd-in greater private participation. Read more...

List of Country Abbreviations

References

New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department