Sub-Saharan Africa
Keeping the Pace
October 2013
©2013 International Monetary Fund
The October 2013 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa provides a comprehensive report on the prospects for growth in the region, as well as the major risks to the outlook. Generally, growth is expected to remain strong despite a downward revision since the May 2013 report. The report analyzes drivers of growth in nonresource-rich sub-Saharan African countries, and examines the risks to frontier market economies of volatile capital flows as they become more integrated with international capital markets.
| Contents | ||
| Abbreviations | ||
| Acknowledgements | ||
| In Brief | ||
| 1. Keeping the Pace | ||
| International Context | ||
| The Regional Outlook: Baseline Scenario | ||
| Are Sub-Saharan African Current Account Deficits a Source of Concern? | ||
| Scenario Analysis: Commodity Price Variations | ||
| Risks, Policy Challenges, and Recommendations | ||
| Concluding Remarks | ||
| Annex | ||
| 2. Drivers of Growth in Nonresource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries | ||
| The Overall Growth Experience in the Sample Countries | ||
| Evidence from Country Cases | ||
| Concluding Remarks and Outlook | ||
| Annex | ||
| 3. Managing Volatile Capital Flows: Experiences and Lessons for Sub-Saharan African | ||
| Frontier Markets | ||
| Short-Term Flows in Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets | ||
| Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets | ||
| Concluding Remarks | ||
| Annex | ||
| Statistical Appendix | ||
| References | ||
| Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–13 | ||
| Boxes | ||
| 1.1. | Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers through Trade? | |
| 1.2. | Government Debt: Old and New Risks | |
| 1.3. | Sub-Saharan Africa’s Progress in Achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) | |
| 1.4. | Has Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Been Inclusive? | |
| 2.1. | Is It Real? Alternative Benchmarks Evaluating GDP Estimates | |
| 2.2. | The Role of Total Factor Productivity in the Growth Acceleration of Nonresource-Rich Low-Income Countries | |
| 2.3. | Investment in Mozambique | |
| 2.4. | Examples of National Programs Aimed at Raising Yields | |
| 3.1. | Drivers of Portfolio Flows to Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets | |
| 3.2. | Capital Flows Management Measures in Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets | |
| 3.3. | Examples of Macroprudential Policies | |
| 3.4. | Nigeria—Capital Flows and Policy Response | |
| 3.5. | Ghana’s Recent Experience in Portfolio Flows | |
| 3.6. | Zambia—Copper and Capital | |
| Tables | ||
| 1.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth | |
| 1.2. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Debt Indicators | |
| 1.3. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators | |
| 1.4. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Bonds Issued, 2013 | |
| 1.5. | Scenario Assumptions | |
| 1.6. | Selected Regions; Percentage of Countries Meeting Specific Benchmarks | |
| 1.7. | IMF Statistics Department Technical Assistance Missions in Sub-Saharan Africa | |
| 2.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Real GDP and Real GDP per Capita Growth, Average 1995–2010 | |
| 2.2. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Sectoral Growth in Real GDP | |
| 2.3. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Annual Change in Relative Employment Shares through 2010 | |
| 2.4. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Economic Indicators | |
| 2.5. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Cost of Doing Business Indicators | |
| 2.6. | Burkina Faso: Cotton Reforms, 1992–2008 | |
| 2.7. | Determinants of Real per Capita Output Growth | |
| 3.1. | Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets: Average Private Flows | |
| 3.2. | Cross-Border Bank-Related Flows to Sub-Saharan African Countries | |
| 3.3. | Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets: Real Exchange and International Reserves Performance | |
| 3.4. | Determinants of Gross Portfolio Investment Flows | |
| 3.5. | Determinants of Equity and Bond Flows in Sub-Saharan Africa | |
| Figures | ||
| 1.1. | World Economic Forecast Revisions | |
| 1.2. | International Commodity Prices | |
| 1.3. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Forecast Revisions Relative to April 2013 | |
| 1.4. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth and Percentile in the World Distribution of Growth | |
| 1.5. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Food and Nonfood Inflation | |
| 1.6. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Bond Flows to Emerging Market and Frontier Economies | |
| 1.7. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Equity Flows to Emerging Market and Frontier Economies | |
| 1.8. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real Exchange Rate Developments by Traditional Country Groups, 2001–13 (June) | |
| 1.9. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Distribution of External Current Account Balance-to-GDP Ratio (Center Quintiles), 2000–13 | |
| 1.10. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Ratio of External Current Account Balance to GDP, 2000–13 | |
| 1.11. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Account Developments, by Country Groupings: 2001–13 | |
| 1.12. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Balance of Payments, 2009–12 Average | |
| 1.13. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Account Financing 2009–12 Average | |
| 1.14. | Sub-Saharan Africa: External Current Account Balance-to-GDP Ratio, 2012–18 | |
| 1.15. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Distribution of External Debt-to-GDP Ratio (Center Quintiles) 2000–13 | |
| 1.16. | Sub-Saharan Africa: External Debt-to-GDP Ratio, 2000–13 | |
| 1.17. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Commodity Price Scenarios | |
| 1.18. | Statistical Capacity Indicator | |
| 2.1. | Selected Regions: Real GDP Index | |
| 2.2. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Index | |
| 2.3. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Real GDP Index | |
| 2.4. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Contributions of Sectors to Real GDP Growth, Average 1995–2010 | |
| 2.5. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: The Virtuous Circle, Average 1995–2010 | |
| 2.6. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Worldwide Governance Indicators | |
| 2.7. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Expenditure on Education | |
| 2.8. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Credit to the Private Sector | |
| 2.9. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Adults with an Account at a Formal Financial Institution, 2011 | |
| 2.10. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Donor Financing, Average 1995–2010 | |
| 2.11. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Misalignment with Equilibrium Exchange Rate | |
| 2.12. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Saving and Investment, 1995–2010 | |
| 2.13. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Public Capital Expenditure, 1995–2010 | |
| 2.14. | Uganda: Private Investment, 1996–2010 | |
| 2.15. | Sub-Saharan African Sample Countries: Infrastructure Indicators | |
| 2.16. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Share of Agriculture in GDP | |
| 2.17. | Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Contributions of Sectors to Services Growth, Average 2000–11 | |
| 2.18. | Selected Countries: Contributions to Real GDP per Capita Growth, 2000–11 | |
| 3.1. | Selected Regions: Capital Inflows: 2000–12 | |
| 3.2. | Selected Regions: Private Investment | |
| 3.3. | Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets: External Loans from and Deposits at BIS-Reporting Banks | |
| 3.4. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Fluctuations in Equity and Bond Flows | |
| 3.5. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Frontier Markets: Exchange Rate Depreciation, 2013 | |
| 3.6. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Exchange Rate Volatility, 2013 | |
| 3.7. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Bond Yield to Maturity Spreads to 10-year U.S. Bonds, 2013 | |
| 3.8. | Sub-Saharan Africa Frontier Markets: Twin Deficits | |
| 3.9. | Sub-Saharan Africa Frontier Markets: Portfolio Flows | |
| 3.10. | Sub-Saharan Africa Frontier Markets: Net Portfolio Flows and Gross International Reserves | |