Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Pacific
October 2009
World Economic and Financial Surveys
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Asia has rebounded fast from the depth of the global crisis. Initially, the region was hit extremely hard, with output in most countries shrinking by much more than even those nations at the epicenter of the crisis. But starting in February 2009, Asia's economy began to revive. Exports and industrial production have increased again, financial pressures have eased, confidence has largely been restored. What explains this remarkable comeback? What challenges does the recovery pose to Asian policymakers? These are the main questions addressed in the IMF's October 2009 "Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific." The report discusses the latest developments in Asia, examines the prospects for the period ahead, and considers the policy steps needed to sustain the recovery and rebalance Asia's medium-term growth. |
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Contents
| Definitions | |||
| Executive Summary | |||
| I. | Asia’s Recovery in the Global Context | ||
| What Has Been Driving Asia’s Recovery? | |||
| What Lies Ahead? | |||
| Key Policy Challenges | |||
| II. | How Japan Recovered from Its Banking Crisis: Possible Lessons for Today | ||
| Japan’s Lost Decade: From Crisis to Recovery | |||
| How Does the Current Great Recession Compare with Japan’s Lost Decade? | |||
| Potential Implications for the Global Outlook and Policies | |||
| III. | Corporate Savings and Rebalancing in Asia | ||
| Does Higher Corporate Saving Affect Household Behavior? | |||
| What Influences Corporate Savings in Asia? | |||
| The Policy Implications | |||
| Conclusion | |||
| Appendix 3.1. Corporate and Household Savings | |||
| Appendix 3.2. Regressions on the Determinants of Corporate Savings | |||
| References | |||
| Boxes | |||
| Chart | Data | 1.1 | How Have Low-Income Countries in Asia Fared Amid the Global Crisis? |
| Chart | Data | 1.2 | Fiscal Stimulus: Assessing Effectiveness and Sustainability |
| Chart | Data | 1.3 | Monetary Transmission in Asia: Is It Working? |
| Chart | Data | 1.4 | Capital Inflows and Policy Responses |
| Chart | Data | 1.5 | Implications of the Global Crisis for Asia’s Potential Output |
| 1.6 | Economic Impact of Recent Natural Disasters in Asia | ||
| Chart | Data | 1.7 | Exit from SME Support Measures |
| Chart | Data | 1.8 | Global Shifts in Demand: Making Up for Weaker Consumption in the United States |
| Chart | Data | 1.9 | Macro-Stabilization in Mongolia: An Emerging Success Story |
| Chart | Data | 3.1 | Corporate Savings, Household Income, and Private Spending in Japan |
| Chart | Data | 3.2 | Savings in China |
| Tables | |||
| 1.1 | Asia: Real GDP | ||
| 2.1 | Japan: Public Funds Allocated to the Financial Sector (1999–2008) | ||
| 3A.1 | Private and Corporate Savings | ||
| 3A.2 | Impact of Corporate Savings on Private Savings by Region: Sensitivity to Measures of Private Savings | ||
| 3A.3 | Private Consumption and Household Property and Nonproperty Income | ||
| 3A.4 | Difference in Mean Corporate Savings, Post-2000 versus Pre-2000 | ||
| 3A.5 | Corporate Savings and Corporate Governance | ||
| 3A.6 | Results from Firm-Level Regression | ||
| Figures | |||
| Chart | Data | 1.1 | Current Recession: Real GDP Growth |
| 1.2 | Assessing Global Growth Momentum | ||
| Chart | Data | 1.3 | World Growth |
| Chart | Data | 1.4 | World Trade and Asia’s Industrial Production |
| Chart | Data | 1.5 | Selected Asia: Industrial Production and Contribution of Final External Demand to Total Value Added |
| Chart | Data | 1.6 | Selected Asia: Real GDP Growth |
| 1.7 | Asia: Growth Momentum | ||
| Chart | Data | 1.8 | Asia: Industrial Production during 2008–09 |
| Chart | Data | 1.9 | Selected Asia: Volume of Exports during 2008–09 |
| Chart | Data | 1.10 | Asia: Value of Exports during 2008–09 |
| Chart | Data | 1.11 | Asia: Electronics and Nonelectronics Exports |
| Chart | Data | 1.12 | U.S. Retail IT Inventories and Asian Electronics Exports |
| Chart | Data | 1.13 | Emerging Asia (excluding China): Direction of Exports |
| Chart | Data | 1.14 | Discretionary Fiscal Measures, 2009 |
| Chart | Data | 1.15 | Composition of Fiscal Stimulus Measures, 2009 |
| Chart | Data | 1.16 | Asia: Fiscal Stimulus Implementation, 2009:H1 |
| Chart | Data | 1.17 | Asia Business Cycle: Nominal Policy Rates |
| Chart | Data | 1.18 | Deposit Money Banks: Excess Reserves at Crisis Peak |
| Chart | Data | 1.19 | Emerging Asia: Net Capital Inflows |
| Chart | Data | 1.20 | Selected Asia: Portfolio Inflows and Change in Exchange Rates |
| Chart | Data | 1.21 | Asia: Nominal Exchange Rate against U.S. Dollar |
| Chart | Data | 1.22 | Stock Markets |
| Chart | Data | 1.23 | Emerging Asia: External Bond Issuance by Sector and Rating |
| Chart | Data | 1.24 | Selected Asia: TED Spread |
| Chart | Data | 1.25 | Emerging Markets: Bank Credit to Private Sector |
| Chart | Data | 1.26 | Selected Asia: Bank Capital-to-Asset Ratios |
| Chart | Data | 1.27 | China: Credit and Fixed-Asset Investment |
| Chart | Data | 1.28 | Asia Business Cycle: Real Private Consumption Expenditure |
| Chart | Data | 1.29 | Asia Business Cycle: Employment |
| Chart | Data | 1.30 | Asia: Consumer Confidence and Volume of Retail Sales |
| Chart | Data | 1.31 | Japan and NIEs: Real Private Capital Formation |
| Chart | Data | 1.32 | United States: Ratio of Imports to Retail Sales—Electric and Electronic Products and Parts |
| Chart | Data | 1.33 | Selected Asia: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization |
| Chart | Data | 1.34 | Asia: Output Gaps |
| Chart | Data | 1.35 | Japan, China, and India: Contributions to Growth |
| Chart | Data | 1.36 | Selected Asia: Contributions to Growth |
| Chart | Data | 1.37 | Asia: Consumer Prices |
| Chart | Data | 1.38 | Asia: Current Account Balances |
| Chart | Data | 1.39 | Asia GDP Growth |
| 1.40 | Comparing Asia Now with Japan in the 1990s and Early 2000s | ||
| Chart | Data | 1.41 | Property Prices |
| Chart | Data | 1.42 | Fiscal Impulse in 2010 |
| Chart | Data | 1.43 | Asia: Difference Between Broad Money Growth and Nominal GDP Growth |
| Chart | Data | 1.44 | Selected Asia: Contributions of Final External Demand to Total Value Added |
| Chart | Data | 1.45 | Contributions to Growth in World Imports: Consumer Goods |
| Chart | Data | 1.46 | Selected Asia: Private Savings—Changes in the Share of Household and Nonhousehold Savings in GDP |
| Chart | Data | 2.1 | Phases in Japan’s Banking Crisis |
| Chart | Data | 2.2 | Japan: Industrial Production and Unemployment |
| Chart | Data | 2.3 | Japan: Fiscal Stimulus and Growth |
| Chart | Data | 2.4 | Japan: Policy Rate and Stock Market Index |
| Chart | Data | 2.5 | Japan: Nonperforming Loans |
| Chart | Data | 2.6 | Japan: Bank Capital and Lending |
| Chart | Data | 2.7 | Japan: “Triple Excesses” of the Corporate Sector |
| Chart | Data | 2.8 | Japan: Contributions to GDP Growth |
| Chart | Data | 2.9 | Japan: Corporate Leverage and Investment |
| Chart | Data | 2.10 | Japan: Public Debt |
| Chart | Data | 2.11 | Bank of Japan Assets |
| 2.12 | Recovery Heat Maps in Japan: Three Phases of the Banking Crisis | ||
| 2.13 | Recovery Heat Maps in Advanced Economies in 2009 | ||
| Chart | Data | 2.14 | Household Debt |
| Chart | Data | 2.15 | Japan: Real GDP |
| Chart | Data | 3.1 | Change in Savings since 2000 |
| Chart | Data | 3.2 | Difference in Mean Corporate Savings, Post-2000 versus Pre-2000 |
| Chart | Data | 3.3 | Non-Asian Emerging Markets: Savings |
| Chart | Data | 3.4 | Emerging Asia (excluding China): Savings |
| Chart | Data | 3.5 | Emerging Asia Corporate Savings |
| Chart | Data | 3.6 | Leverage in Emerging Asia |
| Chart | Data | 3.7 | Private and Corporate Savings |
| Chart | Data | 3.8 | Household and Corporate Savings |
| Chart | Data | 3.9 | Corporate Savings Offset by Households |
| Chart | Data | 3.10 | Households: Consumption and Disposable Property Income |
| Chart | Data | 3.11 | Marginal Propensities to Consume |
| Chart | Data | 3.12 | Financial Reform, 2005 |
| Chart | Data | 3.13 | Corporate Governance Quality, 2008 |
| Chart | Data | 3.14 | The Effect of Financial Liberalization on Corporate Savings |
| Chart | Data | 3.15 | The Effect of Corporate Governance Reform on Corporate Savings |
| Chart | Data | 3.16 | Financial Reform since the Asian Crisis |
| Chart | Data | 3.17 | Measure of Investor Protection in Asia |