IMF Working Papers

Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate—The Case of Brazil

By Roberto Perrelli, Shaun K. Roache

May 12, 2014

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Roberto Perrelli, and Shaun K. Roache Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate—The Case of Brazil, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2014) accessed December 12, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Emerging markets have experienced a sizeable decline in their neutral real interest rates until recently. In this paper we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil’s time-varying neutral rate based on a range of structural and econometric models. We assess the implications of incorrectly estimating a time-varying neutral rate using a small structural model with a simple monetary policy instrument rule. We find that policy prescriptions are very different when facing uncertainty of neutral rate and of output gap. Our result contrasts sharply with Orphanides (2002), suggesting that the best response to neutral rate uncertainty is to ensure policy remains highly sensitive to inflation and output variations.

Subject: Central bank policy rate, Financial services, Inflation, Output gap, Potential output, Prices, Production, Real interest rates

Keywords: Central bank policy rate, Equilibrium real interest rate, Global, Inflation, Inflation expectation, Inflation gap, Inflation surprise, Inflation targeting regime, Inflation variability, Interest rate gap, Natural rate of interest, Neutral rate, Output gap, Policy rate reduction, Potential output, Rate uncertainty, Real interest rates, Small monetary model, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    32

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2014/084

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2014084

  • ISBN:

    9781484385210

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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