Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence

By Natalia T. Tamirisa, Prakash Loungani, Herman O. Stekler

June 1, 2011

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Natalia T. Tamirisa, Prakash Loungani, and Herman O. Stekler Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2011) accessed December 3, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries‘ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa.

Subject: Banking crises, Econometric analysis, Economic theory, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial crises, Financial markets, Rational expectations, Vector autoregression

Keywords: Africa, Asia and Pacific, Banking crises, Banking crises episode, Banking crisis, Crises, Data set, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Europe, Forecasts, Information rigidity, Middle East, Possibility recession, Rational expectations, Recession episode, Recession year, Recessions, Vector autoregression, Western Hemisphere, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

41
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2011/125
Stock No:

WPIEA2011125
ISBN:

9781455263424
ISSN:

1018-5941

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