Coping with Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities and Spillovers
Tokyo, Japan
November 7-8, 2016
Amid concerns over the slowdown in the economic growth, recent economic and noneconomic movements are casting a dark shadow over the global economy. In advanced economies (AEs), asynchronous monetary policies are giving complicated and mixed spillovers to emerging and developing countries. While the result of the UK’s referendum on the Brexit in June immediately exerted a negative effect on the financial markets, markets are recovering to similar level to the pre-Brexit: however, there are various uncertainties surrounding its process and likely resolutions. China’s rebalancing is also wielding influences on the region through various channels given the greater portion and tighter linkages of the Chinese economy to the global and regional economy.
This high-level capacity building seminar, jointly organized by the University of Tokyo and the IMF’s Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, will examine the risks surrounding the global and regional economy as well as the spillover effects of such vulnerabilities and the policies taken by the AEs and China to the region. It will then discuss desirable and necessary policy options which emerging and developing countries should consider taking so as to cope with the macroeconomic vulnerabilities and spillovers.
Program
November 7, 2016 |
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| 9:00 am | Registration |
9:20 am |
Welcome Remarks Mr. Chikahisa Sumi, Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (OAP), International Monetary Fund (IMF) |
Session 1: Global Macroeconomic Outlook, Vulnerabilities and Spillovers Chair: Mr. Giovanni Ganelli, Deputy Head of Office, OAP, IMF Presentation 1-1: Global macroeconomic vulnerabilities and spillovers Presenter: Ms. Oya Celasun, Division Chief, Research Department, IMF Presentation This presentation will discuss the global economic outlook, as well as vulnerabilities underlining the global economy and their spillover channels so as to illustrate global and regional economic risks.Presentation 1-2: China’s slowdown and rebalancing Presenter: Dr. Yiping Huang, Professor, National School of Development, China Center for Economic Research, Peking University Presentation This presentation will discuss China’s rebalancing and its implications for the global economy and the region, including various spillover channels (trade, financial spillovers, etc.). Comment: Dr. Kenichi Ueda, Associate Professor, the Faculty of Economics, the University of Tokyo (UTokyo) Comment Discussion: (N.B. Opportunities for brief factual questions for clarification will be provided after each presentation.) |
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Special Session: |
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Session 2: Macroeconomic policies of advanced economies (AEs) and spillovers to the region Chair: Prof. Naoyuki Shinohara, Professor, UTokyo Presentation 2-1: Fed’s Monetary Policy Presenter: Mr. Antulio Bomfim, Senior Adviser, Division of Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve BankThis presentation will discuss the implications of Fed’s exit from UMPs, in particular interest rate lift-off policy and how and under what conditions it might be implemented. Presentation 2-2: The Macroeconomic Mix in Europe Presenter: Ms. Isabel Vansteenkiste, Head of the Surveillance Division in the Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) Presentation This presentation will mainly discuss the recent EU’s monetary policies. Other factors which could significantly impact the global and regional economy, such as monetary-fiscal coordination and the impact of “Brexit” will also be discussed. Presentation 2-3: Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative Easing and Negative Interest Rate Policy Presenter: Mr. Shigeto Nagai, Director General, International Department, Bank of Japan (BOJ) PresentationThis presentation will discuss the recent policies by the BOJ, including the impact of the negative interest rate policy. Comment: Dr. Hoe Ee Khor, Chief Economist, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) Comment: Mr. Hiroshi Ugai, Senior Economist, Economics Research Division, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Comment Comment: Prof. Junko Koeda, Associate Professor, School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Comment Discussion: (N.B. Opportunities for brief factual questions for clarification will be provided after each presentation.) |
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1:10 pm |
End of the Open Sessions |
The following sessions are for the seminar participants and restricted guests only. |
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Session 3-1: Spillovers and policy response by emerging and developing markets This session will look at spillovers mainly from the point of view of receiving emerging/developing countries in Asia. In particular, it will analyze the impact of AE’s asynchronous monetary policies, China’s slowdown and rebalancing, and the impact of “Brexit”. The session will also look at recent trends in capital flows to emerging markets, and discuss what kind of policies have been successful in managing both inflows and outflows effectively. The session will begin with a broad overview, followed by discussion of country experiences. Chair: Prof. Masahiro Kawai, Project Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, UTokyo Presenter: Dr. Filippo di Mauro, Visiting Fellow, the National University of Singapore, and the former Senior Adviser, Directorate General Research, ECB Presentation Comment: Dr. Rudolfs Bems, Associate Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, UTokyo Comment Discussion: |
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Session 3-2: Country Experiences Chair: Dr. Rudolfs Bems, Associate Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, UTokyo Presentations: Country Experiences and Responses Mr. Hoanuk Joo, Director, Economic Analysis Division, Economic Policy Bureau, Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Korea Dr. Hendar, Deputy Governor, Bank Indonesia Comment Mr. Diwa C. Guinigundom, Deputy Governor, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Philippines Comment Each presentation to be followed by brief Q&A Discussion: |
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November 8, 2016 |
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Panel Discussion Moderator: Mr. Sumi, Director, OAP, IMF Panelists: Mr. Bomfim, FRB Ms. Celasun, IMF Dr. Huang, Peking University Mr. Nagai, BOJ Ms. Vansteenkiste, ECB Discussion |
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Concluding RemarksMr. Chikahisa Sumi, IMF |
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