Advances and Challenges in Regional Integration
Jointly organized by Hitotsubashi University and the IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
March 3-4, 2016
A decade ago, there was much discussion about when Asia might achieve full economic integration, including the establishment of a monetary union. This reflected rapid expansion of intra-regional trade in Asia, and the optimism in the success of European integration, as the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome was approaching. Now, while there remains a broad consensus on the desirability of economic integration, the landscape has become more nuanced.
Asia saw rapid advances in the integration of its economies over the last quarter century. This integration occurred spontaneously mainly through trade, driven by the integration of Asian economies into the Global Value Chain (GVC). This integration has expanded the export growth model of individual Asian economies into a regional wide driver of growth, supporting the traditional view that economic integration confers substantial benefits to the economy.
This successful episode of trade integration was accompanied by a growing policy push towards further integration. The AEC Blueprint, launched in 2007, will see completion in 2015, while the number of regional trade arrangements has increased rapidly. However, the complex web of competing arrangements has raised questions as to whether the ‘noodle bowl’ of trade arrangements are helping or not, and whether countries must look to deeper integration beyond trade liberalization, including liberalization in the movement of capital and labor, in order to achieve further gains. Importantly, despite the importance of migrant labor for a number of countries within the region, there has been little focus on freer movement of labor.
The established optimistic view that further integration, supported by policy measures, will lead to higher growth has recently suffered from some setbacks. On the one hand, there has recently been deceleration of trade growth within Asia, possibly reflecting in part the broadening of the range of production processes undertaken by China in GVC. This process has to some extent been offset by the large increase of demand in China for final goods, supplied by its Asian neighbors, but the recent slowdown in Chinese growth is casting a shadow on trade prospects of the region. The problems in Europe is casting the European experience in a less favorable light, highlighting the importance of political and fiscal integration to support economic integration. The recent quest for a ‘high-quality’ trade arrangement has sharpened the perennial question of how existing producers that would suffer from trade liberalization might be protected or compensated. Moreover, the slowing global growth has resulted in some retrogression of trade liberalization.
Turning to financial integration, there was always less unanimity in its perceived benefits, with Asian economies generally preferring to take a gradual approach towards capital account liberalization and opening up of its financial markets. Nonetheless, advances in globalization of financial markets inevitably encompassed Asia, leading to integration of Asian economies into the global capital markets.
The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 and the recent Global Financial Crisis impressed policy makers in the region the potential dangers of relying on extra-regional players to provide financial services to facilitate trade and investment within the region. However, this led to a policy push towards regional financial integration rather than an outright rejection of financial opening. In that vein, much official effort has gone into developing an ‘Asian Bond Market’ to intermediate regional savings into regional investment opportunities, as well as the effort to create a stronger regional safety net for balance of payments crisis. Nonetheless, the progress of financial integration in the region lags well behind those achieved in the real sectors. While there are efforts to further integrate regional financial markets, including through the ambitious ASEAN Banking Integration Framework to create a single banking market in ASEAN, other factors such as the volatility of global capital flows and the concerns for domestic financial stability consequences restrain integration efforts.
This seminar will discuss the current state of economic and financial integration within Asia, and the policies that will be required to promote effective and welfare-increasing integration for all the Asian economies.
Program
March 3, 2016 |
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8:30 am - |
Registration |
9:00 am - | Welcome Remarks Prof. Akira Ariyoshi, Professor, Asian Public Policy Program (APPP), Hitotsubashi University Mr. Odd Per Brekk, Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (OAP), International Monetary Fund (IMF) |
9:10 am - |
Opening Address Mr. Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Deputy Managing Director, IMF |
9:30 am - |
Keynote Address Prof. Anne O. Krueger, Senior Research Professor of International Economics, the School for Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, and Senior Fellow, the Stanford Center for International Development |
10:00 am - |
Coffee break |
10:20 am - |
Session 1: Evolving nature of economic integration and policy challenges Presentation 1-1: Changing pattern of integration Presentation 1-2: The future of Regional Arrangements Presentation 1-3: Regional labor mobility General Discussions |
12:50 pm - |
Photo Session |
1:00 pm - |
Lunch |
2:30 pm - |
Session 2: Financial integration Chair: Mr. Odd Per Brekk, IMF The current state of financial integrationPresentation 2-1: Overview Presenter: Dr. Yati Kurniati, Director of Macroprudential Policy Department, Bank Indonesia Presentation 2-3: View from private financial institutions Presenter: Mr. Go Watanabe, Chief Executive Officer, Asia & Oceania Region, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. (Brief Q&A could follow each presentation) |
3:45 pm - |
Coffee Break |
4:00 pm - |
Session 2 (continued): 4. Thailand: Ms. Alisara Mahasandana, Senior Director, International Department, Bank of Thailand General Discussions |
5:15 pm |
End of first day seminars |
6:30 pm - |
Cocktail |
7:00 pm - |
Keynote Address |
March 4, 2016 |
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10:00 am - |
Panel Discussion Prof. Fukunari Kimura, Keio University and ERIA Prof. Anne O. Krueger, Johns Hopkins University SAIS, and the Stanford Center for International Development Dr. Yati Kurniati, Bank Indonesia Mr. Daikichi Momma, Director-General, International Bureau, Ministry of Finance, Japan Mr. Alexandros T. Mourmouras, IMF Dr. Cyn-Young Park, ADB |
12:00 pm - |
Concluding Remarks |
12:15 pm - |
Lunch |
2:00 pm |
End of Seminar |
This seminar is funded by the Government of Japan through its JSA trust fund at the IMF. |