Statistical Forum

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

08:45–09:00

Welcoming Remarks

09:00–09:45

Session I

Statistics for Global Economic and Financial Stability: Recent Progress
Louis Marc Ducharme, Director, Statistics Department, IMF

The international community has made considerable progress since the onset of the global crisis in closing the data gaps identified through the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative and other international fora. However gaps remain, including related to the private sector, public sector, and international flows. There are also current and needed methodological changes/advances.

09:45–11:15

Session II

Risk Exposures in International and Sectoral Balance Sheets
Philip Lane, Professor, Trinity College Dublin
Presentation

The analysis of international and sectoral balance sheets will deepen the understanding of private sector vulnerabilities to external and domestic shocks across countries. In particular, understanding the macro-financial linkages and risk transfers across countries and across countries is essential, with important interactions between cross-border and inter-sectoral risk exposures. This session will also focus on the value of information on other economic flows, which is important for understanding the impact of the crisis on national/global wealth.

Chair: André Loranger, Assistant Chief Statistician, Statistics Canada
Discussant: Gülbin Şahinbeyoğlu, Executive Director, Central Bank of Turkey
Discussant: Peter van de Ven, Head of National Accounts Division, Organisation for Economic 
Co-operation and Development

11:15–11:30

Coffee break

11:30–13:00

Session III

From-Whom-to-Whom: Interconnectedness and Spillovers
Kevin Cowan, Manager, Central Bank of Chile
Presentation

Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS), and the BIS’ International Banking Statistics (IBS) data are extremely rich, offering a domestic and global perspective on interconnectedness and spillovers. These data, along with the sectoral balance sheets, monetary and financial statistics, and financial soundness indicators, could also shed light on the policy response to balance sheet adjustments and the transmission of shocks.

Chair: José Viñals, Financial Counselor and Director, Monetary and Capital
Markets Department, IMF
Discussant: Tara Rice, Chief, Global Financial Institutions, Federal Reserve, United States
Discussant: Glenn Hoggarth, Senior Economist, Bank of England
Discussant: Pietro Franchini, Manager, Bank of Italy

13:00–14:30

Luncheon Address
Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, IMF

14:30–16:00

Session IV

Shadow Banks and Global Contagion: Identifying the Systemic Risks at the Edges of the Financial Sector
Hyun Song Shin, Professor, Princeton University
Presentation

This session will explore—using various financial sector data covering banks and non-bank institutions, such as the BIS-IBS and ECB’s credit institutions and money market funds balance sheet data—the prominent role played by shadow banks in propagating the financial crisis, and systemic risks in the financial sector. It could also address the interplay of macro-prudential and macroeconomic policies.

Chair: Lars Frisell, Director of Economics and Chief Economist, Central Bank of Ireland
Discussant: Fabrizio López‐Gallo Dey, Risk Assessment Manager, Financial Stability Division,    
Bank of México
Discussant: Benjamin Cohen, Special Advisor, Bank for International Settlements
Discussant: Rashad Cassim, Head of Research, South African Reserve Bank

16:00–17:30

Session V

Fault Lines in the Public Sector
Jüergen von Hagen, Professor, University of Bonn
Presentation

Cutting-edge statistics on government debt and debt securities can also shed light on the public sector’s exposures and risks maps across domestic sectors and the global economy, as well a clearer picture on who bears the risks of public sector debt. They could also clarify the negative sovereign bank feedback loops.

Chair: Daikichi Momma, Executive Director (Japan), IMF
Discussant: Christian Durand, Deputy Director General, Banque de France
Discussant: Richard Hughes, Division Chief, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

17:30–18:30

Reception Cocktail

18:30–20:30

Dinner (by invitation)

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

09:30–10:30

SessionVI

Capital Flows: How Do We Know When there is a Problem?
Wang Xiaoyi, Deputy Administrator, State Administration of Foreign Exchange
Presentation

The free flow of capital across the globe can have important benefits for countries and for the global economy. Capital flows can also pose important risks however. They are volatile and can be large relative to the size of a country’s financial markets or economy. This can lead to booms and busts in credit or asset prices, and makes countries more vulnerable to contagion from global instability. Are the current and emerging data sets adequate to tell us whether or not these flows pose a problem?

Chair: Olivier Blanchard, Director, Research Department, IMF
Discussant: Charles Collyns, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Institute of  
International Finance
Discussant: Werner Bier, Deputy Director General Statistics, European Central Bank

10:30–10:45

Coffee break

10:45–12:15

Round Table Discussion

Economic Statistics: The Next Wave

Chair: Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, IMF
Participant: Anne Krueger, Professor, Johns Hopkins University
Participant: Richard Berner, Director, Office of Financial Research, United States
Participant: Lars Frisell, Director of Economics and Chief Economist, Central Bank of Ireland
Participant: Nigel Jenkinson, Adviser, Financial Stability Board
Participant: Willem H. Buiter, Chief Economist, Citigroup, London, United Kingdom

12:15–12:45

Concluding Remarks
Robert Heath, Deputy Director, Statistics Department, IMF

13:00–14:00

Lunch