International Conference on Understanding International Commodity Price Fluctuations; March 20-21, 2013

IMF Seminars, Conferences, and Economic Forums

Understanding International Commodity Price Fluctuations

March 20—21, 2013, Washington, D.C.

International Conference organized by the IMF's Research Department and the Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies at Oxford University.

The Research Department of the International Monetary Fund and the Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies at Oxford University will hold an international conference on Understanding International Commodity Price Fluctuations at the IMF’s headquarters in Washington DC on March 20—21, 2013.

The conference is open to the public, but registration is required. The registration is now closed! Registered attendees will be required to present photo identification on entering the IMF at 700 19th Street, N.W. Washington D.C. For questions regarding the conference, please send an email to UICPF@imf.org.

Understanding International Commodity Price Fluctuations

WEDNESDAY, March 20, 2013
8:30 a.m.	Introduction Tony Venables, Oxford University Opening Remarks David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF Opening Remarks Video
8:45 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.	SESSION I. SETTING THE STAGE Video of Session I Chair: Javier Blas, Financial Times “Understanding International Commodity Price Fluctuations” Keynote Speaker: José Ocampo, Columbia University, former United Nations Undersecretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs “Trends and Super-cycles of commodity prices” Discussion
10:00 a.m. – 10:15 a.m.	Coffee Break
10:15 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.	SESSION II. ENERGY PRICES Video of Session II Chair: Olivier Blanchard, International Monetary Fund Speaker: James Hamilton, University of California, San Diego “Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices” Presentation Speaker: Eyal Dvir, Boston College “Demand Effects and Speculation in Oil Markets: Theory and Evidence” Presentation Speaker: Scott C. Linn, University of Oklahoma “The Response of U.S. Natural Gas Futures and Spot Prices to Storage Change Suprises and the Effect of Escalating Physical Gas Production” Presentation Discussion
12:15 p.m. – 1:45 p.m.	LUNCH Lunch Address: Christof Rühl, BP “Tight oil and Shale Gas: Global Implications” Lunch Address Video by Christof Rühl
1:45 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.	SESSION III. POLICY PANEL: ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ENERGY SOURCES Policy Panel Video Chair: Rick van der Ploeg, Oxford University Panelists: Javier Blas, Financial Times Presentation James Hamilton, University of California, San Diego Presentation Karen Harbert, Institute for 21st Century Energy (U.S. Chamber of Commerce) Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University Presentation Christof Rühl, BP
3:30 p.m. – 3:45 p.m.	Coffee Break
3:45 p.m. – 4:30 p.m.	Introductory Remarks: José Viñals, International Monetary Fund Introductory Remarks Video Keynote Speaker: Gary Gensler, Chairman, Commodity Futures Trading Commission “Financialization and Regulation of Commodity Markets”
4:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.	SESSION IV. FINANCIALIZATION OF COMMODITY MARKETS Video of Session IV Chair: Andrei Kirilenko, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Speaker: Michel Robe, American University “Speculators, Commodities and Cross-Market Linkages” Presentation Speaker: Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan “Quantification of the High Level of Endogeneity and of Structural Regime Shifts in Commodity Markets” Presentation Speaker: Vladimir Filimonov, ETH Zürich Entrepreneurial Risks, and David Bicchetti, UNCTAD “Quantifcation of the High Level of Endogeneity and of Structural Regime Shifts in Commodity Markets” Presentation Discussion
6:30 p.m. – 8:00 p.m.	Cocktail Reception (by invitation only)
Thursday, March 21
8:30 a.m. – 9:30 a.m.	SESSION V. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES Video of Session V Chair: Tony Venables, Oxford University Speaker: Kaddour Hadri, Queen’s University, Belfast “Breaking the Dynamic of Relative Primary Commodity Prices in Levels and Volatilities since 1650” Presentation Speaker: Gawon Yoon, Kookmin University “When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices” Presentation Discussion
9:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.	SESSION VI. FORECASTING COMMODITY PRICES Video of Session VI Chair: Jorg Decressin, IMF Speaker: Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University “Carry Trade” Model of Commodity Prices” Presentation Speaker: Kenneth D. West, University of Wisconsin “Using Co-Movements to Forecast Commodity Prices” Presentation Speaker: João Victor Issler, Fundação Getulio Vargas “Using Common Features to Understand the Behavior of Metal-Commodity Prices and Forecast them at Different Horizons” Presentation Discussion
11:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.	COFFEE BREAK
11:15 a.m. – 12:45 p.m.	SESSION VII. FOOD PRICES Video of Session VII Chair: Shenggen Fan, Director General, International Food Policy Research Institute Speaker: Scott Irwin, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign “Bubbles in Food Commodity Markets: Four Decades of Evidence” Presentation Speaker: Fernando Avalos, Bank for International Settlements “Do oil prices drive food prices? A natural experiment” Presentation Speaker: Will Martin, World Bank “Implications of Domestic Price Insulation for Global Food Price Volatility” Presentation Discussion

For More Information

Organizing Committee: Rabah Arezki (IMF), Prakash Loungani (IMF), Rick van der Ploeg (Oxford University) and, Tony Venables (Oxford University)

Conference Coordinators: Hites Ahir (IMF) and Celia Kingham (Oxford University) Email: UICPF@imf.org

Understanding International Commodity Price Fluctuations

Understanding International Commodity Price Fluctuations

Thursday, March 21