Public Information Notice: IMF Discusses Applications of and Methodological Refinements to Assessments of Sustainability, September 5, 2003
Press Release: IMF Soliciting Public Comment Related to the Design of an Operational Framework for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries, July 15, 2003
Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries—Towards a Forward-Looking Strategy, May 5, 2003
Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries - Report on Workshops in Paris, Berlin, and Accra - May/June 2003, July 9, 2003
Debt Initiative for the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs)
A Factsheet
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs)—Documents |
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Sustainability Assessments—Review of Application and Methodological Refinements
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Prepared by the Policy Development and Review Department In collaboration with the Monetary and Financial Systems Department and in Consultation with Other Departments
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June 10, 2003
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Contents
- Introduction
- Sustainability Assessments: Experience and Conceptual Issues
- Experience with Use of Sustainability Templates
- Assessment
- Summary
- Calibration of Sensitivity Tests
- Event Study Approach
- Stochastic Simulation Approach
Probability Density Function of Debt Outcomes
Calibration of Sensitivity Tests in Standard Template
- Summary
- Scenario Analysis
- Contingent Liabilities
- Stress-Test Approach
- Cross-Country Evidence
- Summary
- Interpreting Debt Ratios
- Debt Thresholds
- Debt-Stabilizing Primary Surplus
- Financing Needs
- Summary
- Proposed Changes and Enhancements
- Design, Use, and Resource Implications of the Standard Template
- Publication of Debt Sustainability Assessments
- Issues for Discussion
References
Text Tables
- Preparation and Publication of Debt Sustainability Analysis Using Standard Template
- Examples of Contingent Liabilities
- Estimated Costs of Banking Crisis Across Selected Financial System Indicators
- Revised External Debt Sustainability Template
- Revised Public Debt Sustainability Template
Figures
- Pre-Crisis Trends in Key Variables
- Stochastic Simulation of Debt Ratio
- Probabilistic Bounds and P-values
- Frequency Distributions of P-values of First, Second,
and Third Most Extreme Sensitivity Tests
- Estimated Costs of Banking Crises
- Public and External Debt Ratios in Sovereign Debt Crisis
- Fitted Probability of Sovereign Debt Crisis
- Debt Ratio and Gross External Financing Need
Boxes
- How Good (or Bad) are WEO Projections of External and Public Debt?
- Presentation of DSA in Staff Reports: An Example
- Retrospective Debt Sustainability Analysis in Four Capital Account Crises
- An Early Warning Model of Sovereign Debt Crises
- Proposed Enhancements to Standard Debt Sustainability Framework
Appendices
- Errors in WEO Projections of Public and External Debt
- Stochastic Simulation of External Debt Ratio
- Cross-Country Evidence on the Cost of Banking Crises
- Methods Employed by Investment Houses and Rating Agencies for Assessing Debt Sustainability
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