Buenos Aires, Argentina May 3, 2001
Mr. Horst Köhler
Managing Director
International Monetary Fund
Washington, D.C. 20431
Dear Mr. Köhler:
Our memorandum of economic policies dated February 14, 2000 outlined the Argentine
government policy framework for 2000-02, in support of which we requested a three-year
stand-by arrangement from the Fund. This program centers on fiscal consolidation and
wide-ranging structural reforms aimed at promoting a sustained recovery of output and
employment, with price stability and a continuing improvement in the external accounts. As
outlined in our subsequent policy memoranda of September 5, 2000 and December 21, 2000,
substantial progress was made in the implementation of these policies. However, adverse
domestic and external developments have repeatedly led to crises that resulted in a sharp
tightening of the financing constraints and hindered a sustained recovery of confidence and
activity. As a result, the government was not able to observe the deficit, primary expenditure, and
debt targets specified under the program for March 31, 2001, for which we are requesting
waivers. The government believes that the resumption of strong economic growth and attainment
of a sustainable fiscal position are at the core of the success of its program. To that effect, it is
implementing a comprehensive package of fiscal and pro-growth, pro-competitiveness measures,
which is described in the attached memorandum and annexes outlining the policies of the
government for 2001 and beyond.
During the period of the arrangement, we will maintain the customary dialogue with the
Fund, and take any further steps that may be needed to promote the achievement of the
government's economic policy objectives, in the light of evolving circumstances. Reviews of the
program will be carried out before September 15, 2001, December 15, 2001, and
March 15, 2002.
Sincerely yours,
/s/
Roque Maccarone
President
Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina
|
|
/s/
Domingo Cavallo
Minister of Economy |
Memorandum
of Economic Policies
I. Background
1. The economic program of the Argentine government,1 supported by the current stand-by
arrangement (SBA) from the Fund, aims at creating conditions for a sustainable recovery of
output and employment, with continued price stability and improvement in the external accounts,
through policies geared to increase national savings and investment and promote further
modernization and competitiveness of the economy. These policies center on a progressive
reduction of the public sector deficit to reach equilibrium by 2005; and on a wide-ranging
structural reform effort in the public finances, financial system, labor market, health system, and
other important sectors of the economy.
2. Although important progress was made during 2000 in the
implementation of these policies, the financial environment deteriorated significantly toward
year-end. The overall deficit of the combined public sector was reduced from 4.2 percent of
GDP in 1999 to 3.6 percent in 2000, including through a decline in nominal noninterest
outlays, breaking the upward trend of previous years. The government also adopted several
measures aimed at reducing fiscal impediments to investment, including the phased elimination of
the tax on interest paid by enterprises and the acceleration of payments of VAT credits to new
investment. A deterioration in the external environment and domestic political developments
adversely affected confidence in October-November, resulting in a drop in private sector deposits
in the banking system, and a widening of spreads on Argentine sovereign bonds. In this difficult
context, the government strengthened its economic program and secured enhanced financial
support from the official and private international community, thereby contributing to a return of
confidence in early 2001. Spreads dropped sharply, interest rates returned to pre-crisis levels, and
private sector deposits bounced back, with some indicators pointing to an incipient recovery in
domestic demand. In March, however, another sharp deterioration in market sentiment took
place, caused by a surprisingly weak fiscal performance in early 2001, renewed political turmoil,
and an increase in the perception of risks abroad. The government has moved decisively to
address these new difficulties and took important legislative initiatives aimed at boosting
competitiveness and promoting investment and growth. These initiatives, which resulted in a
rebound in consumer and business confidence indicators, form the core of the program that is
described below.
3. Real GDP contracted by 0.5 percent in 2000, reflecting mainly a sharp
drop in investment. Although industrial production (seasonally adjusted) grew from
November to February, this process was partly reversed in March and, during the first quarter of
2001, GDP is estimated to have fallen by more than 1 percent from the same period in 2000.
However, domestic costs are declining which, in due course, should contribute to an improvement
in competitiveness. Consumer prices dropped by 1.0 percent year-on-year by March 2001, while
wholesale prices declined by 0.4 percent over the same period.
4. For 2001, the program seeks to reduce the overall deficit of the
Federal Government from the Arg$7.0 billion attained in 2000 to Arg$6.5 billion.
During the first quarter of 2001, however, the deficit of the federal government registered an
overrun of Arg$1 billion over the Arg$2.1 billion program ceiling. Two-thirds of this deviation
was due to a shortfall in revenue, reflecting delays in the implementation of some revenue
measures, a drop in tax compliance in March, and the decline in output. On the expenditure side, a
carry-over of outlays from 2000, higher interest costs on the national debt, and spending overruns
explained the deviation.
5. Progress was made in reducing the consolidated deficit of the
provinces, which declined from 1.6 percent of GDP in 1999 to 1.1 percent in 2000.
The bulk of the adjustments was carried out by the more indebted provinces which entered
into agreements with the federal government for support in the refinancing of their debt, in
conjunction with specific fiscal adjustment programs. Significant progress was also made by some
of the larger provinces, while in others, including the Province of Buenos Aires, the deficit
remained quite large. The program for 2001 contemplates a further reduction of the deficit of the
provinces to 0.9 percent of GDP. Preliminary first quarter estimates suggest that, on a
commitment basis, the aggregate deficit exceeded the indicative target in the program by a small
amount.
6. During 2000 and the first quarter of 2001, bank credit to the private
sector declined, reflecting the weak economic activity. Private sector deposits rose steadily
during the first nine months of 2000 but declined during the last quarter, because of the impact of
the October-November crisis. With the return of confidence, deposits bounced back in early 2001,
but this recovery was short-lived, and they declined again in March-April. On both occasions, the
central bank eased banks' required liquidity ratios on a temporary basis. The capital adequacy ratio
(Basel criteria) of the banking system remains comfortable, and banks have been steadily building
up provisions to cover the nonperforming loans.
7. The trade balance improved significantly during 2000, contributing to a
narrowing of the external current account deficit from 4.4 percent of GDP in 1999 to
3.3 percent in 2000, with close to three-fourths of this deficit covered by foreign
direct investment. The trade balance improved from a deficit of US$2.2 billion in 1999 to a
surplus of US$1.2 billion in 2000, which more than compensated for the increased interest
burden of the external debt. Exports rose by 13 percent, reflecting a strong performance of
manufactured exports as well as the favorable impact of high energy prices. Exports of
manufactured goods rose by 18 percent, as a result of a surge in export volume in several sectors
including steel, automobile, and chemical products. Imports contracted by 1.2 percent,
reflecting in part depressed investment activity. The external current account deficit in the first
quarter of 2001 is estimated at US$2.6 billion (0.7 percent of annual GDP), some US$0.6 billion
lower than in the same period a year earlier, largely because of a continued strong export
performance. However, financial and political turmoil in March translated into a significant decline
in gross official international reserves (including banks' liquidity requirements held abroad) from
US$32.5 billion at end-December 2000 to US$26.0 billion at end-April 2001.
II. The new policy package and economic program
for 2001 and beyond
8. The government has implemented a wide range of measures to deepen and
expand its strategy of ensuring medium-term fiscal sustainability and promoting a sustained
recovery of economic activity. The new initiatives--embodied in the competitiveness law approved
by Congress on March 28, 2001--include a major effort to strengthen tax revenues, targeted
expenditure cuts, and the granting to the executive of special powers to legislate for the period of
one year on reforms in the public sector, taxation, and regulation.
9. The new measures the government is putting in place aim to restore
confidence, both domestically and externally, accelerate productivity growth, and bolster
competitiveness. They continue to be centered on the maintenance of the convertibility regime.
The government intends to preserve convertibility's main features, e.g., full foreign exchange
backing of the currency, and statutory limitations on central bank financing of the public sector. In
addition, the government intends to reinforce convertibility by including the euro alongside the
U.S. dollar, and thereby promote greater stability of the effective exchange rate of the peso. Draft
legislation has been introduced in Congress specifying that, once parity is established between the
U.S. dollar and the euro, the value of the peso will be defined in terms of equal parts of both
currencies.
10. The policies to promote investment and competitiveness that were
put in place during 2000 will be boosted by a number of new measures the government has taken
in recent weeks, including the reduction to zero of the extra-Mercosur import tariff on most
capital goods, and the granting of tax subsidies for domestic producers of capital goods. At the
same time, the extra-Mercosur import tariff on a range of consumer goods was temporarily raised
to 35 percent to stimulate domestic production and employment in these sectors, while mitigating
the fiscal impact of the tariff reduction on capital goods. These duties will return to Mercosur's
common external tariff by the end of 2002. In addition, the government will lead a concerted
effort to eliminate distortions and reduce costs in the productive sectors. This effort will center on
"competitiveness plans" to be subscribed by the government, business, and labor in
specific sectors, and will involve the elimination of distortive taxes and regulations, including by
the provinces and municipalities, as well as through agreements with workers in regard to more
flexible labor arrangements. The elimination of tax distortions will be gradually extended to the
rest of the economy, as fiscal conditions allow. The tax incentives to promote investment
described in the MEP of December 21, 2000 are being implemented, as well as a reduction in the
VAT rate on capital goods to 10.5 percent, further reducing the financing cost of
investment. The government is also accelerating the program of public works aimed at easing
infrastructure bottlenecks and stimulating activity in the construction sector. The law authorizing
the lease-and-operate programs for basic infrastructure was approved in March.
11. While efforts are proceeding to boost investment spending, the government
is implementing several structural measures aimed at promoting competition in domestic
markets and facilitating a better allocation of capital and labor resources in the economy.
Using the new legislative powers the government has streamlined the anti-trust legislation and
issued regulations for the Protection of Competition Law. Similarly, the new regulatory
framework of the telecommunications sector is being implemented, permitting the government to
proceed in the last quarter of 2001 with the auction of two third-generation telecommunications
frequencies. Also, the government has recently issued enabling regulations for the labor market
reform, which is proceeding well. All sectors with collective labor contracts that are still subject
to the ultra-actividad clause (which retains in effect a pre-existing contract in the absence of a new
agreement) will be required to renegotiate such contracts during a period not exceeding two years
from end-June 2001, or they will be submitted to binding arbitration. Also, progress is being made
to extend social security identification to hitherto unregistered workers affecting, among others,
domestic employees. Such programs are now being extended to seasonal, youth, and part-time
employees, and those in small and medium-sized enterprises (PYMES).
12. With the policy package now in place, the government expects confidence
in the economy to improve and projects a recovery of economic activity through year-end, led by
domestic consumption, and complemented later in the year by accelerating investment as the
measures described above have their full effects. The government projects that real GDP growth
will gradually accelerate to a pace of around 5 percent by year end, corresponding to output
growth in a range of 2-2.5 percent for the year on average. Inflation is expected to
remain subdued, owing to the absence of cost pressures, and unemployment is expected to begin
declining as the recovery gains pace.
13. The external trade surplus is expected to increase to US$1.8 billion in 2001,
as sustained growth of exports resulting from the coming on stream of investments in the
chemical, paper and basic metal industries should more than offset lower external sales of
agro-industrial products and the increase in imports associated with the expected economic
recovery. The external current account deficit is expected to widen slightly, to the equivalent of
3.4 percent of GDP, with the improvement in the trade balance more than offset by a decline in
interest earnings abroad. Because of the relatively long maturity of Argentina's external debt, total
interest payments on external debt should not be affected significantly by the increase in spreads
observed in recent months. Over the medium term, the current account is projected to narrow
further, to under 3 percent of GDP, reflecting the continued improvement in the trade
performance and a deceleration of the growth of interest payments, in line with the decline of the
external debt in relation to GDP and lower interest rates. The bulk of the current account is
expected to be covered by FDI, and the remainder by net financial inflows to the private sector, as
the public sector gradually reduces its reliance on foreign financing, reflecting the planned fiscal
consolidation and the further development of the domestic capital market.
14. The government remains committed to achieving a sustained reduction of
the public debt in relation to GDP over the medium term, which it regards as essential to reduce
the country's vulnerability to events in the capital markets, and to lower risk spreads, and hence
interest costs, for private and public borrowers, thereby promoting a recovery of economic
activity. Attainment of these objectives is embodied in the fiscal responsibility law that
establishes a path for the reduction of the federal budget deficit, including its elimination by 2005.
Provincial governments subscribed to a similar undertaking in the federal fiscal pact.
The medium-term fiscal consolidation is based on the freezing of nominal primary
spending at the 2000 level by both the federal and provincial governments, and the strengthening
of structural reforms, including in tax administration, the social security system, and in the public
administration.
15. The deviation from the fiscal deficit target in the first quarter of 2001
reflected the effects from weaker tax performance and from nonimplementation of certain
measures that, with unchanged policies, were projected to compound into a cumulative deviation
for the year of as much as Arg$3.7 billion. This result is not acceptable to the government as it
would violate the targets specified under the Fiscal Responsibility Law as well as those
under the Fund program. To ensure the attainment of the fiscal target for 2001, the
government therefore has introduced a package of additional measures amounting to
Arg$3.8 billion (1.3 percent of GDP). These measures are centered on the financial
transactions tax and the elimination of the VAT exemptions on the revenue side, and targeted tax
cuts and improved efficiency on the expenditure side.
- The financial transactions tax went into effect in early April and applies on the debit and
credit side of all checking account transactions, with few exemptions (e.g., transactions in
household saving accounts, stock market operations, and salary payments). The tax is to expire at
end-2002. The rate, initially set at 0.25 percent, was raised to 0.40 percent effective May 1 and
the increase can be credited towards VAT and income tax payments. The tax is projected to yield
about Arg$2.5 billion for the rest of the year.
- The elimination of VAT exemptions, together with the net effect of the changes in
nominal tariffs on consumer and capital goods imports, and some other revenue measures are
projected to yield in net terms Arg$0.4 billion in the remainder of 2001.
- Regarding expenditure measures, in April, the government issued an administrative order
to cut discretionary expenditures in a number of ministries and agencies, projected to yield
Arg$245 million through year-end.
- It also issued three decrees to improve the administration and reduce abuse in the system
of family allowance and other selected programs of the social security administration (ANSES),
projected to yield around Arg$180 million through year-end.
- In addition, the government will cut Arg$125 million in various programs with attached
external financing, and obtain savings of Arg$250 million by clamping down on fraudulent welfare
and social insurance claims, as well as unjustified pension payments and transfers to provincial
pension funds, and other measures. The reform of the public administration will result in savings
of Arg$50 million. The government is confident that with these measures the expenditure target
under the program for the year will be attained, but is requesting modifications of the fiscal
performance criteria for end-June and end-September.
16. The new measures
that have been introduced greatly improve the outlook for 2002, when these measures
will be in effect for the full year. In addition, the government intends to make a concerted effort to
strengthen tax administration, reversing the deterioration that has occurred in this area. Therefore,
and notwithstanding a projected increase in the interest bill and the nonrecurrence of certain
nontax revenues, the government remains confident of its ability to meet the targets for 2002
specified in the Fiscal Responsibility Law.
17. The financing plan for 2001 has been modified toward more
domestic financing. In April, the government placed US$3.5 billion domestically, which more than
compensated for the decision not to seek recourse to the international bond market in the
remainder of 2001. Included in this placement was the issue of a bond for US$2 billion that banks
can compute towards their liquidity requirements. This bond has a maturity of one year and had
not been contemplated in the original financing program; the government request that the
performance criterion on the short-term debt of the federal government be modified accordingly.
The borrowing needs for 2001 are fully financed with the disbursements from official and bilateral
sources, and the commitments of domestic participants already negotiated in December 2000,
including through liability management operations. The government continues to attach utmost
importance to market-based solutions for the concentration of maturities in the coming years, and
is actively pursuing discussions on voluntary public debt exchanges to achieve a more even path
of debt service obligations over time.
18. The government is working with the provinces to strengthen the local
public finances. Preliminary estimates suggest that the provinces incurred a deviation of
Arg$70 million from the indicative ceiling for their deficits (commitment basis) of
Arg$0.6 billion in the first quarter of 2001, while the net increase in their debt during the
same period was Arg$850 million--a deviation of Arg$250 million from the program--because of
the cash settlement of certain commitments made in 2000. The adjustment and debt refinancing
programs of provincial governments with the central government, now including eleven
provinces, are working well, and those provinces are making progress in consolidating their
finances. Moreover, in April 2001, the central government concluded an additional agreement
with the province of Buenos Aires, which envisages the elimination of the fiscal deficit of the
provincial government in four annual steps from a target of US$1.7 billion in 2001 to
balance in 2005, and includes binding agreements on improving the health of the Bank of the
Province of Buenos Aires. The agreement is an important step forward in Argentina's
intergovernmental fiscal relations and enhances the coordination between the financing operations
of the central and provincial governments. The deficit of US$1.7 billion in the province of Buenos
Aires is higher than that projected last December; but stronger balances now expected in other
jurisdictions, especially the City of Buenos Aires and the provinces of Mendoza, San Luis and
Santa Cruz, make it possible to retain the program's original annual targets for the consolidated
provincial deficit. The government requests that the quarterly (indicative) targets for the
consolidated provincial government deficits for end-June and end-September be revised slightly to
reflect the compensation of the overrun in the first quarter of the year; the target for
end-December remains unchanged. The targets on the debt of the consolidated public sector
would also need to be modified. In May, the government will publish and post on the internet the
first report on the implementation of the federal fiscal pact, explaining the actions taken by
provincial governments to improve their legislation and to increase transparency in their
operations, and indicating their progress in containing primary spending and reducing their
deficits. In addition, the national government intends to request technical assistance from the Fund
to explore possible new mechanisms to strengthen its ability to coordinate and control provincial
government borrowing within the framework of the Argentine federal system.
19. To improve tax administration, the Internal Revenue
Agency (AFIP) has completed the design of the national tax audit plan. Reallocations were made
in the staffing of the agency, and to strengthen the internal independence of the auditing units,
which have begun implementing the audits of 100,000 taxpayers, as envisaged in program. The
program is ahead of schedule and already some 9,100 desk audits have been carried out--yielding,
among others, valuable information on the reliability of the information systems--and the program
is on track to be finished on schedule by the sixth review of the program. Plans are now being
developed to cross-check the information obtained from the financial transactions tax with
individual tax payers, which is expected to enhance tax compliance. In addition, the government is
making progress in setting up special tax courts, and the judiciary has begun selecting specialized
personnel in this area. The government has prepared plans to streamline tax payments facilities
arrangements, with a view to increase transparency and reduce discretionality in this process.
These plans will be put into effect in the coming months.
20. The government is proceeding with the reform of the public
administration with a view to streamlining its activities, eliminating redundant entities and
programs, reducing overlapping and duplication of functions across administrative units and levels
of government, strengthening controls over procurement practices and the cost-effectiveness of
spending programs, and boosting efficiency and the quality of services provided by the public
administration. The special powers obtained by the Executive to act in these areas will result in a
sharp acceleration of this process.
21. In late 2000, the government issued two decrees to reform the pension
system and the health organizations (Obras Sociales). As described in the
MEP of December 12, 2000 these reforms aim at strengthening the intertemporal solvency and
equity of the pension system, and open up the health organizations to competition, while
promoting efficiency in the provision of health care. Both decrees have since been challenged in
the courts and the government has suspended them from going into effect to help advance a
negotiated solution to these challenges, and to prevent inequities resulting from an uneven
implementation of the decrees. The government is committed to both initiatives as they represent
essential building blocs to improve economic efficiency and fiscal sustainability in the medium
term. The decrees are expected eventually to be upheld by the courts. Nevertheless, the
government sees now a possibility to obtain agreement in Congress on a draft law to reform the
pension system that would not only obey the principles underlying the questioned decree but
would improve upon it on several key aspects. The government intends to introduce this draft
legislation to congress in the coming months. The restructuring of the health system for
retirees (PAMI) is proceeding well and the transfers (including PAMI's own
revenue) from the Treasury to PAMI are limited at US$200 million a month, as was envisaged in
the restructuring program.
22. The government will maintain the strong liquidity and capitalization
defenses of the banking system, which are essential to buttress confidence and permit the
recovery of the economy. The importance of keeping ample liquidity reserves was demonstrated
during the recent episode of financial difficulties when, to confront a decline in deposits in March,
the central bank could maintain adequate liquidity conditions by reducing the liquidity
requirements by two percentage points to 18 percent. During the remainder of 2001, as deposits
recover, this reduction will be reversed.
23. The government has also introduced changes to the Charter of the central
bank to allow regulatory changes that will lower costs for banks and remove a number of
distortions that inhibited the development of checking accounts. In particular, the central
bank will now distinguish between liquidity requirements applied to time deposits and reserve
requirements applied to checking and savings accounts. In regard to liquidity requirements, banks
will operate as until today. On reserve requirements, they will be authorized to count cash in vault
toward meeting the requirements, as well as to fulfill requirements against peso liabilities with
public sector bonds denominated in pesos. The modifications to the Charter of the central bank
will also allow it to remunerate reserve requirements. Given the paramount importance of
maintaining an adequate level of prudential protection of the banking system, particularly in
connection with time deposits, which show the largest reaction to instability in financial markets,
the incorporation of cash in vault and government bonds to the reserve requirements will be fully
offset by accordingly raising the statutory ratio of liquidity requirements on time deposits.
Furthermore, the central bank will not authorize banks during the remainder of 2001 to increase
the amount of bonds held as part of their liquidity requirements.
24. With a view to fostering the development of domestic capital markets, the
government will enact shortly, with the new delegated powers, a bill on best practices in the
financial sector, increasing the transparency and the requirements for public information
about financial transactions, and strengthening corporate governance, particularly in regard to
minority shareholders' rights. Also, recently, a first round of discussions on the FSAP has been
held, and the assessment is expected to be completed by the next review of the program.
25. With a view to help
reactivate investment spending, the government
has reached an agreement with other Mercosur
countries to reduce temporarily the custom
duties on non-Mercosur imports of capital
goods to zero. At the same time, custom
tariffs have been increased on a number
of consumption good imports, up to a
rate of 35 percent. These trade policy
changes are estimated to affect about
28 percent of non-Mercosur imports, and
to result in a slight increase in Argentina's
average tariff from 11.6 percent to 11.8
percent of non-Mercosur imports. They
shall not remain in effect beyond end-2002
and do not, in any way, signal a departure
from Argentina's commitment, either to
Mercosur, or to the recent agreement
reached with 34 other countries of the
Western Hemisphere, to complete negotiations
for the Free Trade Area of the Americas
by January 2005.
Technical
Memorandum of Understanding
This memorandum presents a detailed definition of the variables included in the quantitative
performance criteria table annexed to the Policy Memorandum.
1. Cumulative balance of the Federal Government.
|
Cumulative balance
of the Federal Government |
Limit
(floor, in millions of Arg$) |
|
End-June 2001 (performance
criterion) |
-4,939
|
End-September 2001 (performance
criterion) |
-6,249
|
End-December 2001 (performance
criterion) |
-6,500
|
End-December 2002 (indicative)
|
-5,000
|
|
The balance of the Federal Government comprises the results of the Federal Government and
of the Central Bank (BCRA). The result of the Federal Government is defined to include: the
balances of PAMI, the Fondo Fiduciario de Infraestructura, and the issue of bonds in exchange for
Plan Canje tax certificates; and to exclude transfers from the Central Bank, privatization
receipts, and capital gains realized on the sale of financial assets. The result of the Federal
Government will be measured from below the line on the basis of: (a) the information provided by
public sector debt reporting system (SIGADE), including all short-term debt of the Federal
Government; (b) net asset transactions of the Federal Government as reported by the
Secretaría de Hacienda, the Dirección Nacional de Cuentas
Internacionales (DNCI) and the Gerencia de Manejo de Reservas Internacionales of
the BCRA; and (c) information on bank borrowing and bank deposits provided by the
BCRA. The result of the BCRA is defined as interest earnings on gross international reserves (as
defined below) plus interest on government bond holdings of the BCRA minus net interest paid on
reverse repos. The limits on the balance of the Federal Government will be subject to the
following adjustors:
a) The limits will be adjusted downward (i.e., the deficit will be allowed to rise) by up to
Arg$210 million for the issue of bonds in exchange for Plan Canje tax certificates;
b) The limits will be adjusted downward (i.e., the deficit will be allowed to rise) by the early
payment of accrued interest on bonds surrendered in bond exchanges, and upward by the
extinction of the obligation to continue to pay interest on the same bonds after the exchange.
Should the bonds issued in exchange for the bonds rescued carry coupons due at some point in
2001, those coupons should be netted out of the upward adjustor just mentioned;
c) The end-June 2001 and end-September 2001 limits will be adjusted upward by the value
of the nontax revenue from the sale of collateral released through the rescue of Brady bonds
effected through those dates;
d) The end-December 2001 limit will be adjusted downward by fifty percent of the shortfall in
revenue from the concession of telecommunication frequencies relative to the amount envisioned
in the program (US$800 million).
2. Cumulative ceiling on primary expenditure of the Federal Government.
|
Cumulative primary expenditures of the Fed. Gov.
|
Limit (ceiling, in millions of Arg$)
|
|
End-June 2001 (performance criterion)
|
26,657
|
End-September 2001 (performance criterion)
|
40,184
|
End-December 2001 (performance criterion)
|
53,212
|
|
This ceiling applies to the noninterest expenditure of the Federal Government (including the
deficit of PAMI) as reported by the Secretaría de Hacienda.
3. Cumulative balance of the provincial governments.
|
Cumulative provincial government balance
|
Limit (floor, in millions of Arg$)
|
|
End-June 2001 (indicative)
|
-1,450
|
End-September 2001 (indicative)
|
-2,080
|
End-December 2001 (indicative)
|
-2,760
|
End-December 2002 (indicative)
|
-2,000
|
|
The balance of the provincial governments
comprises the consolidated result of
the provinces,
including the city of Buenos Aires.
The result of these jurisdictions will
be measured from above the line, with
expenditure defined on an accrual basis
and including all interest on bonds issued
by the province of Buenos Aires to recapitalize
Banco Provincia, according to
the information provided by the Secretaría
de Hacienda. These limits will be
indicative.
4. Cumulative change in the debt of the Federal Government.
|
Cumulative change in the debt of the Fed. Gov.
|
Limit (ceiling, in millions of Arg$)
|
|
End-June 2001 (performance criterion)
|
5,039
|
End-September 2001 (performance criterion)
|
6,399
|
End-December 2001 (performance criterion)
|
6,700
|
End-December 2002 (indicative)
|
5,000
|
|
The change in the debt of the government will be defined as the difference between the stock
of debt at each relevant date in 2001, valued at end-2000 exchange rates and measured at end of
period, and the stock of debt at end-2000. The debt of the Federal Government includes all
foreign currency denominated and Argentine peso denominated debt obligations and guarantees,
as defined in EBS/00/128 (June 30, 2000) and Executive Board Decision adopted August 24,
2000 and incorporated herein by reference, of the Federal Government (including public
enterprises, PAMI, INDER, and trust funds). These debt obligations include those with local and
foreign financial institutions, international organizations, bonds and bridge loans. The data used to
monitor debt developments will be taken from SIGADE, including all short term Federal
Government debt. The limit on the change in federal government debt will be adjusted in the
following ways:
a) Upward (downward) by the increase (decline) in the deposits of the Federal Government in
the Central Bank, the domestic banking system and abroad, adjusted for any margin observed in
the cumulative balance of the federal government performance criterion as defined in 1 above;
b) Upward (downward) for the net increase (decrease) in the valuation of net debt
operations--including both placements and amortizations--made after December 31, 2000 in
currencies other than the U.S. dollar arising from the difference between actual exchange rates
and those of end-December 2000. To ensure the timely calculation of this adjustor, the authorities
will provide the Fund with information on all debt operations (placements and amortizations) on a
weekly basis indicating the currencies and exchange rates at which the operations were carried
out.
c) Downward for any privatization proceeds;
d) By the difference between the result of the Central Bank in 2001 as defined in 1 above and
the transfers effectively made by the Central Bank to the Federal Government;
e) Upward, by up to Arg$2.1 billion, for debt issued in 2001 for the consolidation of past
obligations (including bonds issued in exchange for Plan Canje tax certificates, and for the
capitalization of interest on previously issued consolidation bonds), by up to
Arg$800 million for consolidation of past obligations of INDER, and by up to
Arg$400 million for payments due to judicial rulings relating to past claims on the Social
Security Administration (ANSES);
f) Downward (upward) by the reductions (increases) in nominal debt arising from debt
cancellations or swaps in 2001;
g) Downward for an amount equivalent to the difference between the proceeds from the sale
of collateral released through the rescue of Brady bonds in 2001 and the nontax revenue obtained
as a result of these operations;
h) Upward for debt issued in 2001 to finance the Fiscal Stabilization fund by up to
US$450 million in 2001;
i) Upward, by up to Arg$1,850 million, for amounts relating to borrowing in 2001 by the
Provincial Development Trust Fund for the restructuring of provincial debt; and
j) Upward, by up to US$1.5 billion, for borrowing in 2001 from multilateral agencies on
behalf of provinces, municipalities, and official banks (deuda indirecta) in 2001;
k) Upward by the early payment of accrued interest on bonds surrendered in bond exchanges,
and downward by the extinction of the obligation to continue to pay interest on the same bonds
after the exchanges. Should the bonds issued in exchange for the bonds rescued carry coupons
due at some point in 2001, those coupons should be netted out of the downward adjustor
mentioned in the last sentence;
l) The limits for end-June 2001 and end-September 2001, downward by the value of the
nontax revenue from the sale of collateral released through the rescue of Brady bonds effected
through those dates;
m) The end-December 2001 limit will be adjusted upward by 50 percent of the shortfall in
revenue from the concession of telecommunication frequencies relative to the amount envisioned
in the program (US$800 million).
5. Cumulative change in short term debt of the Federal Government.
|
Cumulative change
in federal short term debt |
Limit (ceiling, in millions of Arg$) |
|
End-June 2001 (performance
criterion) |
3,500
|
End-September 2001 (performance
criterion) |
3,500
|
End-December 2001 (performance
criterion) |
3,500
|
|
The short term of the Federal Government consists of all domestic and foreign federal and
federally guaranteed debt with an original maturity of one year or less.
6. Cumulative change in the debt of the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS).
|
Cumulative change in debt of the CPS
|
Limit (ceiling, in millions of Arg$)
|
|
End-June 2001 (performance criterion)
|
6,639
|
End-September 2001 (performance criterion)
|
8,524
|
End-December 2001 (performance criterion)
|
9,460
|
End-December 2002 (indicative)
|
7,000
|
|
The change in the debt of the Consolidated public Sector includes the sum of the changes in
the debt of the Federal Government as defined in 4 above (including all the corresponding
adjustments) and that of the provincial governments and the city of Buenos Aires, net of changes
in intergovernmental debt (including debt to the Provincial development Trust Fund arising from
debt restructuring operations). The debt of the provincial governments and the City of Buenos
Aires will be defined to include obligations to local and foreign financial institutions (as reported
by the Secretaría de Hacienda with respect to the end March, 2001 performance criterion,
and subsequently by the Central Bank), to international organizations, and bonds (excluding peso
denominated bonds placed outside the financial system). The limit in this provincial debt will be
adjusted: (a) downward for any privatization receipts; (b) downward for capital
gains realized in the sale of financial assets; (c) upward by the nominal value of the bond issued by
the province of Buenos Aires to clean up bad loans from the balance sheet of Banco Provincia,
net of the book value of any loans that, having become nonperforming after March 31, 2001, may
be acquired by the provincial government as part of this operation; and (d) upward (downward)
for any increase (decrease) in net deposits of the provinces in the banking system during the year.
The data used to monitor the provincial debt will be provided by the Secretaría de
Hacienda, the SIGADE, and the Central Bank. The stock of debt will be valued at end-2000
exchange rates and measured at end period.
7. The net domestic assets (NDA)
of the BCRA
The net domestic assets (NDA) of the
BCRA are defined, as shown below, as
the difference between monetary liabilities
and net international reserves (NIR)
of the BCRA, both measured on the basis
of end-of-period data.
The limit on NDA will be adjusted upward by the equivalent of purchases from the IMF
under the arrangement.
The limit for December 2001 will be adjusted upward for up to Arg$200 million on account
of temporary liquidity needs reflected in an equivalent increase in repos (pases activos).
|
|
2000
|
|
2001
ceilings1
|
|
Nov.
|
Dec.
|
|
Mar. (prel.)
|
Jun.
|
Sept.
|
Dec.
|
|
|
(In
millions of pesos, end of period) |
A.
Net international reserves (a –
b) |
20,267
|
22,852
|
|
|
|
|
|
a.
Gross international reserves2 |
23,360
|
25,832
|
|
|
|
|
|
b.
Foreign liabilities3 |
3,093
|
2,980
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B.
Net domestic assets (C – A) |
2,705
|
2,642
|
|
2,152
|
2,399
|
2,097
|
1,836
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C.
Monetary liabilities (c + d + e) |
22,972
|
25,494
|
|
|
|
|
|
c.
Currency issued |
13,330
|
15,078
|
|
|
|
|
|
d.
Government deposits4 |
919
|
920
|
|
|
|
|
|
e.
Reserve deposits of banks5 |
8,723
|
9,495
|
|
|
|
|
|
1Performance
criteria.
2Include the BCRA holdings
of gold, SDR's, foreign currency in the
form of cash and deposits abroad, government
securities of investment grade of OECD
countries, and Argentina's net cash balances
within the Latin American Trade Clearing
System (ALADI), excluding the accounting
effects of holdings of reverse repo operations.
This definition of reserves excludes
central bank holdings of government bonds.
3End-December position projected
as of December 11, 2000. Liabilities
to the IMF valued at US$1.30 per SDR.
Excludes purchases from the IMF arrangement.
4Includes government and ANSES
deposits.
5Legal bank reserves and liquidity
requirements (reverse repo). |
Structural Benchmarks
Tax administration
- Implementation of plans to streamline tax payments facilities arrangements
(4th review)
- Completing 80,000 desk audits (5th review)
- Completing 100,000 desk audits (6th review)
- Full implementation of the Tax Frauds Tribunal (6th review)
Social Security Reforms
- Implementation of restructuring plan for family allowances (4th
review)
- Submission to congress of draft law on pension reform (4th review)
Provincial finances
- Publication by the Ministry of Economy of quarterly public reports on the
implementation by the federal government and each province of commitments undertaken in
pacto federal (starting with 3rd review)
Financial system
- Presentation of draft legislation to facilitate the process of banking resolution
(5th review)
Trade policy
- Announcement of the timetable for the elimination of the CET surcharge by end 2002
(4th review)
Competition and deregulation
- Regulatory proposal for ports system (4th review)
- Implementation of new regulatory framework in the telecommunications sector
(5th review)
Argentina: Quantitative Performance Criteria for 2001–021
2 |
(In
millions of Argentine pesos or U.S. dollars) |
|
|
Revised
Program
|
|
Jan–Jun
2001 |
Jan–Sep
2001 |
Jan–Dec
2001 |
Jan–Dec
2002 |
|
1. Cumulative balance of the
Federal Government |
(4,939) |
(6,249) |
(6,500) |
(5,000) |
|
|
|
|
|
2. Cumulative primary expenditure of the
Federal Government |
26,657 |
40,184 |
53,212 |
. . .
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. Cumulative consolidated balance of
the Provincial Governments3 |
(1,450) |
(2,080) |
(2,760) |
(2,000) |
|
|
|
|
|
4. Cumulative change in the debt of the
Federal Government |
5,039 |
6,399 |
6,700 |
5,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
5. Cumulative change in the short-term
debt of the Federal Government |
3,500 |
3,500 |
3,500 |
. . .
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. Cumulative change in the debt of the
Consolidated Public Sector |
6,639 |
8,524 |
9,460 |
7,000
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. Stock of net domestic assets of the
Central Bank |
2,399 |
2,097 |
1,836 |
. . .
|
|
1As defined in
the Technical Memorandum of Understanding.
2Targets for 2002 are indicative at present, to be substituted by performance criteria
during the fifth review of the program.
3Indicative. |
1The program is described in detail in the Memoranda of Economic Policies (MEPs) of February 14, September 5, and December 21, 2000. |