The Risk of a U.S. Hard Landing and Implications for the Global Economy and Financial Markets

The IMF's flagship reports, the Global Financial Stability Report and the World Economic Outlook, provide the institution's assessment of the outlook for the global economy and financial markets. In reaching this assessment, IMF staff listen carefully to outside opinions, even contrarian ones. Nouriel Roubini has been warning for over a year of the likelihood of a recession in the United States and of its significant effects on the global economy. In this talk, Roubini provides an updated assessment of the U.S. and global economic and financial conditions. His talk addresses:

• whether a U.S. recession is looming;
• by how much U.S. house prices can be expected to decline;
• how long the financial turmoil can be expected to last;
• whether Federal Reserve and other central banks can come to the rescue; and
• whether countries will be able to decouple from developments in the United States.

This page provides links to a summary of the talk, a transcript of the event, and a webcast.

The views expressed by Professor Roubini are his alone and should not be attributed to the IMF.