Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040

By Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Aditya Pande

May 22, 2017

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Aditya Pande. Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2017) accessed December 23, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.

Subject: Commodities, Environment, National accounts, Non-renewable resources, Oil, Oil prices, Prices, Renewable resources, Transportation

Keywords: Adoption of EVs, Battery EVs, Electric car car industry, Electric vehicle, Energy transition, EV market, Global, Graph line, Lifetime cost competitiveness, Lithium-ion battery, Motor vehicles adoption, Motor-vehicle ownership, Non-renewable resources, Oil, Oil demand, Oil price, Oil prices, Penetration projection, Project EVs, Renewable energy, Renewable resources, Transportation, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

42
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2017/120
Stock No:

WPIEA2017120
ISBN:

9781484301128
ISSN:

1018-5941

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