Iraq: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq

May 16, 2024

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Format: Chicago

Iraq: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2024) accessed December 3, 2024

Summary

The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that domestic stability has improved since the new government took office in October 2022, facilitating the passage of Iraq’s first three-year budget, which entailed a large fiscal expansion starting in 2023. The ongoing fiscal expansion is expected to boost growth in 2024, at the expense of a further deterioration of fiscal and external accounts and Iraq’s vulnerability to oil price fluctuations. Without policy adjustment, the risk of medium-term sovereign debt stress is high and external stability risks could emerge. Key downside risks include much lower oil prices or a spread of the conflict in Gaza and Israel. A fiscal adjustment is needed to stabilize debt over the medium term while protecting critical social and capital spending. Large savings can be attained from containing the outsized public wage bill and policy measures aimed at mobilizing additional non-oil revenues. Private sector development and economic diversification are crucial to ensure long-term external sustainability and foster private job creation.

Subject: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, International organization, Monetary policy, Oil prices, Prices, Revenue administration

Keywords: CBI bill, Decarbonization pathway, Fiscal stance, Global, Governance improvement, Governance reform, Iraq's governance framework, Middle East, North America, Oil prices

Publication Details

Pages:

68
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Country Report No. 2024/128
Stock No:

1IRQEA2024001
ISBN:

9798400275357
ISSN:

1934-7685

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