《世界经济展望》

管理分化的复苏进程

2021年4月《世界经济展望》:全球经济进一步企稳,但复苏进程出现分化且存在极大不确定性

新冠疫情暴发一年后,全球前景仍然存在巨大的不确定性。尽管疫苗的持续推广提振了人们的情绪,但变异毒株的出现和病亡人数的不断增加引发了人们的担忧。不同国家、部门的复苏进程出现分化,这反映了各国、各部门在疫情下受到的不同冲击,以及其获得政策支持力度的不同。未来的经济前景不仅取决于病毒和疫苗的斗争结果,还取决于在高度不确定性下实施的经济政策减轻这场空前危机带来的长期影响的有效性。

我们预计2021年全球增速为6%,2022年则将放缓至4.4%。与2020年10月《世界经济展望》的预测值相比,我们上调了对2021和2022年的增长预测值。预测值的上调反映了以下因素:少数大型经济体推出了更多财政支持,2021年下半年预计出现疫苗驱动的经济复苏,以及经济活动持续对人员流动下降做出调整和适应。经济前景存在巨大的不确定性,这与新冠疫情的未来发展路径、政策支持帮助实现疫苗驱动复苏的效果以及融资环境的变化情况有关。

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最新增长预测

报告章节

全球前景与政策

2020年经济活动急剧收缩,在我们的记忆中实属罕见;但超常规的政策支持避免了更坏经济结果的出现。新冠疫情暴发一年后,走出这场健康与经济危机的前途日益光明,但前景仍存在巨大的不确定性。经济复苏的力度将在很大程度上取决于有效疫苗在全球范围内的迅速推出。要战胜这场疫情、避免各国国内不平等的持续加剧、防止各经济体人均收入的进一步分化,我们仍有许多工作要做。

第二章:新冠疫情后的影响:中期经济损失的前景

本章研究了新冠疫情衰退可能带来的长期创伤效应并讨论了它们的可能作用渠道。重要的一点是:到目前为止,我们很大程度上避免了在当前危机中出现金融动荡——而这往往与较严重的长期创伤效应有关。本次危机的中期损失预计将低于全球金融危机,但损失的规模仍很巨大:到2024年,全球的预期产出将比疫情前下降约3%。各国创伤效应的预期程度各不相同,这取决于它们的经济结构、政策应对的规模等因素。新兴市场和发展中经济体预计将比发达经济体遭受更严重的长期创伤效应。

第三章:劳动力市场的衰退与复苏:模式、政策和对新冠疫情冲击的反应

新冠疫情对劳动力市场的影响仍在继续,年轻人和低技能劳动者受到的冲击尤其严重。疫情暴发前,劳动力市场就已存在较脆弱岗位的自动化转型趋势。疫情以来,这一趋势有所加快。保留就业的支持性政策在减轻长期创伤效应和缓解新冠疫情对各群体造成的不平等冲击方面极为有效。随着疫情的消退和复苏企稳,当局采取支持劳动者向新行业配置的支持性措施,将有助于更快减少失业并缓解疫情对劳动力市场的长期影响。

第四章:政策换挡:新冠疫情后复苏时期的货币政策溢出效应

发达经济体在新冠疫情初期放松了货币政策,使新兴市场的融资环境大幅改善。展望未来,各国复苏速度不同将给我们带来挑战。本章分析表明,美国经济走强后实施紧缩政策,对大多数新兴市场经济体来说往往是有利的;但若美国突然收紧货币政策,则会引发新兴市场的资本外流。因此,发达经济体必须明确说明其在复苏时期将如何执行货币政策。本章分析也表明,新兴市场经济体可以通过采用更加透明和基于规则的货币和财政框架,减少它们在不利金融溢出效应面前的脆弱性。

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