IMF World Economic Outlook May 1997

    WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS
  World Economic Outlook
   A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
May 1997

©1997 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
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Contents

Assumptions and Conventions

Preface

Chapter I. Global Economic Prospects and Policies (423k pdf file)
      Advanced Economies
      Developing Countries
      Transition Countries

Chapter II. World Economic Situation and Short-Term Prospects (4953k pdf file)
      Economic Activity, Inflation, and Policy Stances in Advanced
           Economies
      Economic Situation and Prospects in Developing Countries
      Developments and Prospects in Transition Countries
      Financial and Foreign Exchange Markets
      External Payments, Financing, and Debt

Chapter III. Meeting the Challenges of Globalization in the Advanced Economies (4223k pdf file)
      Features of Modern Globalization
      Causes and Implications of Deindustrialization
      Trade and Wages
      Capital Market Integration and Implications for Policy

Chapter IV. Globalization and the Opportunities for Developing Countries (5626k pdf file)
      Forces of Integration
      Implications for Relative Income Patterns and Convergence
      Policies to Boost Growth and Promote Convergence
      Economic Convergence and the Importance of Policy
             Complementarities
      Reaping Gains From Globalization and Avoiding Marginalization

Chapter V. Integration of the transition Countries into the Global Economy (3097k pdf file)
      Liberalization of Trade and Payments
      Trade Liberalization
      Revival and Reorientation of Trade
      Progress with Financial Integration
      Regional Integration Initiatives

Annex
Globalization in Historical Perspective

Boxes

Revised Country Classification

Policy Assumption Underlying the Projections

Statistical Appendix

File 1 (4906k pdf file)
File 2 (5215k pdf file)

Tables

Chapter

1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates
3. Major Industrial Countries: Questions About Inflationary Pressures
4. Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
5. European Union: Convergence Indicators for 1995, 1996, and 1997
6. Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
7. Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
8. Selected Economies: World Export Market Shares
9. Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
10. Developing Countries: Capital Flows
11. Cost of Air Transportation Telephone Calls, and Computer Price Deflator
12. Industrial Countries: Growth of Output and Employment
13. Cross-Border Transactions in Bonds and Equities
14. Gross Foreign Direct Investment Plus Portfolio Investment
15. Foreign Exchange Trading
16. Advanced Versus Developing Countries Including New Industrialized Economies: Diversification of Exports
17. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Increased Polarization and Reduced Mobility in Cross-Country Relative Income
18. Developing Countries: Convergence and Growth in Selected Countries
19. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Policies and Economic Performance
20. Developing Countries Including Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Relationship Between Policies and Growth, 1985-95 and Conditional Probabilities of Success
21. Countries in Transition: Progress in Integration and Economic Performance
22. Countries in Transition: Dollar Wages in Manufacturing or Industry
23. Countries in Transition: Net Medium- to Long-Term Financial Flows
24. Countries in Transition: Gross External Debt to Export Ratios
25. Countries in Transition: Credit Ratings and Country Risk Rankings
26. Countries in Transition: Net Foreign Direct Investment

Charts

Chapter

1. World Industrial Production
2. World Indicators
3. European Union: General Government Budget Positions
4. Commodity Prices
5. Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps
6. Three Major Industrial Countries: Policy-Related Interest Rates and Ten-Year Government Bond Yields
7. Major Industrial Countries: Monetary Conditions Indices
8. Selected European Countries: Real Total Domestic Demand
9. European Union and the United States: Indicators of Consumer Confidence
10. Selected Asian Countries: Growth in Export Revenues
11. Selected Countries in Transition: Inflation
12. Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
13. Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates
14. United States: Equity Market Capitalization, Price-Earnings Ratio, Dividend Yield, and Yield Gap
15. Emerging Market Countries: Equity Prices
16. Elasticity of World Trade with Respect to World Output
17. Developing Countries and Countries in Transition: External Debt and Debt Service
18. Selected Advanced Economies: Employment by Sector as a Share of Total Civilian Employment
19. Selected Advanced Economies: Value Added by Sector as a Share of GDP at Current Prices
20. Selected Advanced Economies: Value Added in Manufacturing, Constant Prices
21. Selected Advanced Economies: Balance of Trade in Manufactured Goods
22. The Changing Structure of Employment
23. Selected Advanced Economies: Employment
24. Selected East Asian Economies: Share of Manufacturing in Employment
25. Selected Advanced Economies: Changes in Ratios of Earnings Deciles
26. Selected Advanced Economies: Unemployment Rates
27. Selected Advanced Economies: Foreign Direct Investment Outflows
28. Selected Advanced Economies: Dispersion of Covered Interest Differentials
29. Selected Advanced Economies: Mean and Dispersion of Nominal Short-Term Interest Rates
30. Advanced Economies: U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential
31. Selected Advanced Economies: Mean and Dispersion of Real Short-Term Interest Rates
32. Selected Advanced Economies: Mean and Dispersion of Nominal Bond Yields
33. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Trade
34. Developing Countries: Net Private Capital Flows
35. Developing Countries: Net Private Capital Flows, 1990-96
36. Developing, Advanced, and Transition Countries: Current Account Convertibility
37. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Real Per Capita Income
38. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Relative Economic Performance
39. Advanced and Developing Countries: Convergence in per Capita Income, 1965-95
40. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Convergence in Absolute Income, 1965-95
41. Selected Economies: Exports, Imports, and per Capita Real Income
42. Countries in Transition: Ratio of Trade to Output
43. Central and Eastern European Countries: Composition of Trade by Partner
44. Selected Countries in Transition: Real Exchange Rates vis-à-vis U.S. Dollar
45. Countries In Transition: Medium- to Long-Term Net Financial Flows

Annex

46. Advanced Countries: Effective Tariff Rates
47. Selected Countries: External Capital Flows
48. Selected Major Industrial Countries: Current Account Balances
49. Selected Countries: Dispersion of Real Interest Rates