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WORLD ECONOMIC AND
FINANCIAL SURVEYS
World Economic Outlook
A Survey by the Staff of the International
Monetary Fund
October 1996
©1996 International Monetary Fund
The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities. |
Contents Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view PDF
files.
Assumptions and Conventions
Preface
Partnership for Sustainable Global Growth
Chapter I. Global Economic Prospects and
Policies
Overview
Industrial
Countries
Developing
Countries
Economies in
Transition
PDF version of Chapter 1 (233k)
Chapter II. World Economic Situation and Short-Term Prospects
Economic Activity, Inflation, and Policy
Stances in Industrial Countries
Economic Situation and Prospects in Developing
Countries
Developments and Prospects in Countries in
Transition
Financial and Foreign Exchange Markets
External Payments, Financing, and Debt
Chapter III. Policy Challenges Facing Industrial Countries in the Late 1990s
Changes in Transmission of Monetary Policy
Banking Sector Risks and Economic
Performance
Strengthening the Functioning of Labor
Markets
Chapter IV. Financial Market Challenges and Economic Performance in Developing
Countries
Challenges of Capital Market Integration
Financial System Requirements in Countries
Lagging Behind
Problems Facing the Heavily Indebted Poor
Countries
Chapter V. Long-Term Growth Potential in the Countries in Transition
Growth Lessons of the Transition Process
Growth Experience in Other Countries
Illustrative Long-Run Growth Scenarios
Policy Issues and Challenges to Sustaining
Growth
Chapter VI. The Rise and Fall of Inflation—Lessons from the Postwar
Experience
Sources of Inflation: Three Inflation Episodes
in Industrial Countries
Role of the Exchange Rate Regime
Guideposts for Anti-Inflationary Monetary
Policy
Special Features of Inflation in Developing and
Transition Countries
Stopping High Inflation
Some Empirical Evidence on Factors
Influencing the
Inflationary Process
Costs of Inflation
Costs of Disinflation
Achieving and Sustaining Price Stability
Annexes
- The Difficult Art of Forecasting
- World Oil Market: Recent Developments and Outlook
Crude Oil Prices
Consumption
Production
Medium-Term Outlook
- World Current Account Discrepancy
- Capital Inflows to Developing and Transition Countries—Identifying Causes and
Formulating Appropriate Policy Responses
Identifying the Causes of Capital Inflows
Policy Responses
Boxes
Chapter
- 1. Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections
- 2. Using the Slope of the Yield Curve to Estimate Lags in Monetary Transmission
Mechanism
- 3. Assessing Overheating in Emerging Market Countries
4. Progress in the Development of Exchange Markets in Africa
5. Financial Repression
- 6. Trade and Growth in the Countries in Transition
7. Bank-Restructuring Strategies in the Baltic States, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Main Issues and Challenges
- 8. Inflation Targets
9. Indexed Bonds and Expected Inflation
10. Effects of High Inflation on Income Distribution
11. Central Bank Independence and Inflation
Statistical Appendix
Assumptions
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries
List of Tables
Output (Tables A1–A7)
Inflation (Tables A8–A13)
Financial Policies (Tables A14–A21)
Foreign Trade (Tables A22–A26)
Current Account Transactions (Tables
A27–A32)
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables
A33–A37)
External Debt and Debt Service (Tables
A38–A43)
Flow of Funds (Table A44)
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A45)
Tables
Chapter
- 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook
Projections
- 2. Industrial Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates
3. European Union: Convergence Indicators for 1995, 1996, and 1997
4. Major Industrial Countries: Questions About Inflationary Pressures
5. Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
6. Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
7. Selected Developing Countries: General Government Budget Balance
8. Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
9. Selected Countries in Transition: General Government Budget Balance
10. Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves
11. Selected Countries: Current Account Positions
12. Developing Countries: Capital Flows
13. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario
- 14. Selected Major Industrial Countries: Responsiveness of Bank-Lending Rate to a Change
in the Policy Interest Rate
15. Changes in the Structure of the Financial System
- 16. Selected Emerging Market Countries: Macroeconomic Indicators
17. Developing Countries: Selected Financial Indicators
- 18. Countries in Transition: Medium-Term Scenario for Output and Inflation
19. Industrial and Developing Countries: Long-Run Growth of GDP Per Capita
20. Rapidly Growing Economies and Countries in Transition: Factors Influencing Growth
21. Postwar Recovery: Sources of Growth in GDP, 1950–73
22. Developing Countries: Total Factor Productivity Growth
23. Countries in Transition: Per Capita Income and Selected Demographic Indicators
24. Countries in Transition: Trends in Educational Attainment of the Population Aged 15 and
Over
25. Countries in Transition: Indicators of the Quality of School Inputs
26. Countries in Transition: Population Growth
27. Selected Countries in Transition: Simulated Growth Rates
28. Selected Countries in Transition: Reform of Social Protection Systems
29. Selected Countries in Transition: Indicators of Capital Flows
30. Countries in Transition: Indicators of External Viability, 1995
31. Countries in Transition: Broad Money
32. Selected Countries in Transition: Problem Loans
33. Selected Countries in Transition: Bank Interest Rate Spreads
- 34. Exchange Rate Regime and Inflation
35. Importance of Seigniorage in Developing Countries
36. Inflation and Output Growth Before and After Stabilization
37. Probability of Being Above 100 Percent in Next Year at Different Rates of Inflation in
Current Year
Annex
- 38. Consumption of Petroleum by Groups of Countries
39. Crude Oil Production
40. Average Growth Rates in Consumption of Petroleum, by Groups of Countries
- 41. Discrepancies on World Current Account
- 42. Potential Indicators for Analyzing Causes of Capital Inflows in Developing and
Transition Countries
43. Symptoms of Causes of Capital Inflows
44. Macroeconomic Policy Matrix for a Country with Balanced Policies Experiencing Capital
Inflows
Box
- Number of Quarters Between Changes in the Yield Gap and the Maximum Impact on the
Growth of Output, Unemployment, and Inflation
- Developing Countries: Financial Repression and Economic Performance
- Inflation Targets in Selected Countries
Charts
Chapter
- 1. World Indicators
2. European Union: General Government Budget
Positions
3. Industrial Countries: Real Interest Rates
- 4. Commodity Price Indices
5. Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps
6. Three Major Industrial Countries: Policy-Related Interest Rates and Ten-Year Government
Bond Yields
7. European Union and the United States: Indicators of Consumer Confidence
8. Major Industrial Countries: Monetary Conditions Indices
9. Selected Countries More Advanced in Transition: Inflation
10. Selected Countries Less Advanced in Transition: Inflation
11. Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
12. Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates
13. United States and Japan: Equity Yield Gap and Stock Market Prices
14. Selected Emerging Market Countries: Equity Prices
15. Emerging Market Countries: Equity Prices
16. Elasticity of World Trade with Respect to World Output
17. Developing Countries and Countries in Transition: External Debt and Debt Service
- 18. Major Industrial Countries: Real Short-Term Interest Rate Differential Versus Real
Exchange Rates
19. Major Industrial Countries: Simulated Response of Real Output to a Monetary Policy
Tightening
20. Japan: Investment Spending Over Recovery Cycles, Small and Medium-Sized
Enterprises
21. European Union and the United States: Output, Capital, Employment, and
Compensation
- 22. Developing Countries: Net Private Capital Flows, 1990–95
23. Developing, Industrial, and Transition Countries: Current Account Convertibility
24. Developing Countries: Openness
25. Selected Emerging Market Countries: Indicators of Demand Pressure
26. Developing Countries: Foreign Direct Investment in Selected Countries
27. Developing Countries: Financial Development and Economic Growth, 1976–94
28. Developing Countries: Real Interest Rates and Financial Intermediation,
1976–94
29. Developing Countries: Debt-Export Ratios of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries, Average
1992–94
30. Developing Countries: Net Resource Transfers to Heavily Indebted Poor Countries,
1990–94
- 31. Economies in Transition: Inflation and Real Output Growth, 1992–95
32. Economies in Transition: Index of Reform Progress (IRP) and Real Output Growth
33. Economies in Transition: Unemployment and Real Output Growth
- 34. Inflation
35. Price Level in the United States and the United Kingdom
36. Industrial Countries: Inflation and Real Output Growth
37. Selected Industrial Countries: Inflation
38. Developing Countries: Inflation Across Regions
39. Selected Industrial and Developing Countries: Inflation and Money Growth,
1960–95
40. Influences of Various Factors on Inflation
41. Response of Inflation to Various Shocks
42. Industrial Countries: Inflation and Inflation Variability, 1960–95
43. Industrial Countries: Variability in Inflation and Real Output Growth, 1960–95
44. Inflation and Real Output Growth, 1965–95
45. Asymmetric and Symmetric Model Responses to Overheating
Annex
- 46. Industrial Country Real Output Growth: World Economic Outlook Forecast
Compared with Actual
47. Major Industrial Countries: Comparison of World Economic Outlook and
Consensus Forecasts Errors
- 48. Crude Petroluem Price in Current and Real Terms
49. Commercial Stocks of Petroleum
50. West Texas Oil Prices: Spot and Futures Contracts
51. Industrial Countries: Consumption of Petroleum
52. Global Oil Reserves and Consumption
53. Distribution of Crude Oil Reserves in 1990
- 54. Global Discrepancies on World Current Account and on World Financial Flow
Box
- Selected Emerging Market Countries: Impact of the Output Gap on Inflation,
1975–95
- Countries in Transition: Trade Volume and Output Growth
- Industrial Countries: Central Bank Independence and Inflation
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