IMF World Economic Outlook October 1997 -- Contents

WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS
World Economic Outlook
October 1997

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
©1997 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
Disclaimer
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view pdf files.

Contents

Assumptions and Conventions

Preface

Chapter I.
132k pdf file

Global Economic Prospects and Policies
	Advanced Economies Developing Countries Transition Countries

Chapter II.
215k pdf file

Issues in the Current Conjuncture
	Global Issues Advanced Economies Developing Countries Transition Countries

Chapter III.
148k pdf file

EMU and the World Economy
	EMU: A New Policy Regime Establishing Conditions for a Successful EMU Managing Uncertainties in the Preparations for EMU External Effects of EMU Reaping the Benefits of EMU: Importance of Fiscal and Labor Market Reforms

Chapter IV.
126k pdf file

Exchange Rate Arrangements and Economic Performance in Developing Countries
	Changing Pattern of Exchange Rate Arrangements Factors Underlying the Evolution of Exchange Rate Arrangements Analytical Issues in the Choice of Regime Macroeconomic Characteristics of Exchange Rate Regimes Exchange Rate Arrangements: Problems and Policies Challenges of Rapid Growth and Capital Inflows for Exchange Rate Regimes Capital Account Convertibility

Chapter V.
119k pdf file

Monetary and Financial Sector Policies in Transition Countries
	Recent Conduct of Monetary Policy Development of Market-Based Instruments for Monetary Policy Development of Efficient Banking Systems Other Factors Affecting Conduct and Transmission of Monetary Policy New Challenges for Monetary Policy

Annexes
87k pdf file

I	China—Growth and Economic Reforms Economic Reforms Sources of China’s Growth The Unfinished Agenda
II	Implications of Structural Reforms Under EMU Alternative Reform Scenarios for EMU Sensitivity Analysis I: Aggregate Demand Shocks Under EMU Sensitivity Analysis II: Asymmetric Demand Shocks Under EMU

Boxes
121k pdf file

Chapter
I	Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections Alternative Exchange Rate Assumptions for Japan
III	The European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact Asymmetric Shocks: European Union and the United States
IV	Currency Boards Dollarization
V	Financial Sector Problems and Monetary Policy in Countries in Transition Relative Price Adjustment and Price Convergence in Transition Countries
Annex
I	Hong Kong, China: Economic Linkages and Institutional Arrangements
II	Scenario Assumptions

Statistical Appendix
293k pdf file

Assumptions
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries
List of Tables
    Output (Tables A1–A7)
    Inflation (Tables A8–A13)
    Financial Policies (Tables A14–A21)
    Foreign Trade (Tables A22–A26)
    Current Account Transactions (Tables A27–A32)
    Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A33–A37)
    External Debt and Debt-Service (Tables A38–A43)
    Flow of Funds (Table A44)
    Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables A45-A46)

Tables
161k pdf file

Chapter
II	Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices Selected Economies: Current Account Positions Capital Flows to Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, and Newly Industrialized Economies Major Industrial Countries: Questions About Inflationary Pressures Selected Latin American Countries: Macroeconomic Indicators of Cyclical Change Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Economic Developments and Their Distribution
III	European Union: Convergence Indicators for 1996, 1997, and 1998 United States, Japan, and the European Union: Relative Economic Size and Relative Use of Currencies Implications of EMU for Europe and the Rest of the World—Simulation Results
IV	Developing Countries: Officially Reported Exchange Rate Arrangements Geographical Distribution of Officially Reported Exchange Rate Arrangements Implicit Weights of U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen in Nominal Values of Selected Asian Currencies Considerations in the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Exchange Rate Regime and Main Source of Export Earnings Currency Crashes by Exchange Rate Regime
V	Countries in Transition: Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Policy Instruments, August 1997 Countries in Transition: Annual Growth Rates of Broad Money and of Domestic Credit Countries in Transition: Real Interest Rates Countries in Transition: Income Velocity of Broad Money Countries in Transition: Money Multipliers Russia and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Rankings of Progress with Establishment of Market-Based Monetary Operations and Government Securities Markets Selected Countries in Transition: Interest Rate Spreads Countries in Transition: Changes in Consumer Prices, December 1995–December 1996 Countries in Transition: Dollarization Ratios Selected Countries in Transition: Net Capital Inflows
Annex
I	China: Alternative Estimates of the Sources of Economic Growth China: Sources of Growth During the Reform Period
II	Simulation Results for Euro-Area Demand Shock Simulation Results for Asymmetric Demand Shock in the Euro Area
Box
4	Correlation Coefficient of Output Growth with Anchor Areas, 1964–90

Figures
288k pdf file

Chapter
I	World Output and Inflation European Union: General Government Budget Positions Changing Relative Positions in the World Economy
II	Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps Major Industrial Countries: Monetary Conditions Indices Three Major Industrial Countries: Policy-Related Interest Rates and Ten-Year Government Bond Yields European Union and the United States: Indicators of Consumer Confidence Selected Advanced Economies: Inflation Developing Countries: Inflation Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates Equity Prices Major Industrial Countries: Average Earnings and Unit Labor Costs in the Manufacturing Sector Commodity Prices Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates Selected Advanced Economies: Employment and Unemployment Selected Advanced Economies: Unemployment Rates Japan: Output Developments India and Pakistan: Macroeconomic Indicators
III	Trade Within the European Union Selected Advanced Economies: Openness European Union: Inflation and General Government Balance European Union: Inflation, General Government Balance, and Gross Debt Selected Developing and Transition Countries: Trade and Financial Links with the European Union Selected Developing and Transition Countries: Shares of Trade with the European Union
IV	Developing Countries: Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Developing Countries: Share of Output and Trade by Exchange Rate Regime Developing Countries: Growth and Inflation by Exchange Rate Regime Developing Countries: Openness by Exchange Rate Regime Developing Countries: Exchange Rate Movements of Countries with Pegged and Countries with Officially Declared Flexible Exchange Rate Arrangements
V	Selected Countries in Transition: Inflation Latvia, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Importance of Seigniorage in 1996
Annex
I	China: Indicators of Structural Transformation and External Opening China: Macroeconomic Cycles in the Reform Period
Box
2	Japan: Real Effective Exchange Rate Japan: World Economic Outlook Baseline and MULTIMOD Simulation Results
4	Correlation of Demand and Supply Shocks with Anchor Areas
6	Foreign Currency and Cross-Border Deposits
8	Countries in Transition: Overall Price Level Gaps, 1996