United States and the IMF
Research at the IMF
The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy Prepared by the IMF Research Department, December 8, 2000
See Also:
World Economic and Financial Surveys Series
World Economic Outlook - October 2000
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Financial Implications of the
Shrinking Supply of U.S. Treasury Securities |
Garry J. Schinasi, Charles F. Kramer, and R. Todd Smith
Research Department
March 20, 2001
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Contents
Preface
- Introduction and Summary
- Historical Development of Government Securities Markets
- The Major Government Securities Markets
- The Evolution of the U.S. Treasury Market
- The Actual and Projected Decline in the Supply of U.S. Treasury
Securities
- Key Characteristics and Roles of Government Securities and
Government Securities Markets
- Key Characteristics
- Roles of Government Securities in National and International Markets
Benchmark interest rates
Hedging interest rate risk
Position funding and liquidity management
Investment and position taking
Government securities as near-monies and safe havens
- Recent Market Developments and Private and Official Reactions to the
Shrinking Supply of U.S. Treasuries
- Recent Financial Market Impact
Rising interest-rate spreads
Reduced liquidity and greater volatility
Less reliable U.S. treasury yield curve
Diminished reliability of U.S. treasuries
- Private Efforts to Become Benchmark Issuers
- Changes in U.S. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
- Private and Public Policy Questions Raised by the Shrinking Supply of
Treasury Securities
- Are There Private Substitutes for Government Benchmarks?
- What Are the Possible Consequences for Day-to-Day Liquidity Management and
Longer-Term Portfolio Management?
- How Might the Ability to Hedge Interest-Rate Risk be Affected?
- Are There Natural Substitutes for U.S. Treasuries as a Universally Accepted Collateral?
- How Might Market Dynamics be Altered by the Absence of a Credit-Risk Free Safe
Haven?
- Is the International Role of the Dollar Likely to be Affected?
- Conclusions
Tables
- Global Bond Markets
- Relative Size of Repo Markets
- Assets of U.S. Federal Reserve Board
- U.S. Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities
Figures
- Public Debt, 1940-2004
- Composition of the U.S. Public Debt
- Maturity Distribution of Interest-bearing Publicly Held Treasury Debt, 2000-2030
- Ownership of U.S. Treasury Securities
- Ownership of U.S. Treasury Securities Outside of U.S. Federal, State, and Local Government
Accounts
- Projected Treasury Debt
- Projected Path of Publicly Held Treasury Debt
- U.S. Corporate Bonds: Yields and Spreads
- Ten-Year Swap and Treasury Rates
- Bid-Ask Spreads of U.S. Treasury Bills
- Bid-Ask Spreads of U.S. Treasury Notes
- Off-the-Run On-the Run Yield Spread of One-Year U.S. Treasury Bills
- Volatility of 10-Year Swap Spread
- U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
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