Sub-Saharan Africa
Staying the Course
October 2014
©2014 International Monetary Fund
The October 2014 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa anticipates continued strong growth in much of Sub-Saharan Africa, driven by efforts to invest in infrastructure and by strong agricultural production. However, the current Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is exacting a heavy toll, with spillovers to neighboring countries. In addition, external threats to the region's overall positive outlook include global financial conditions and a slowdown in emerging market growth. Other topics are building resilience in fragile states and addressing the infrastructure deficit.
| Contents | ||
| Abbreviations | ||
| Acknowledgements | ||
| Executive Summary | ||
| 1. Staying the Course | ||
| Introduction and Summary | ||
| Will Stronger Global Ties Continue to Support Growth? | ||
| Public Debt: Vulnerabilities in Some Countries | ||
| The Outlook: Strong Prospects, but Downside Risks | ||
| 2. Building Resilience in Fragile States in Sub-Saharan Africa | ||
| Introduction | ||
| The Analytics of Fragility | ||
| Factors and Policies Associated with Building Resilience | ||
| Case Studies | ||
| The Way Forward | ||
| 3. Addressing the Infrastructure Deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa | ||
| Introduction and Summary | ||
| Stylized Facts: The Current Status of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Infrastructure | ||
| The Financing of Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Broad Overview | ||
| The Way Forward: Policies to Reduce the Infrastructure Deficit | ||
| Conclusions | ||
| Statistical Appendix | ||
| References | ||
| Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–14 | ||
| Boxes | ||
| 1.1. | Comparing the Cost of Sovereign Bond Issuance in Domestic and Foreign Currencies | |
| 1.2. | More Diversification than Previously Thought? Examples from Recent National Account Rebasing | |
| 2.1. | Gauging Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa | |
| 2.2. | Logit Framework | |
| 3.1. | Regional Infrastructure | |
| 3.2. | Financial Contracts to Facilitate Infrastructure Investments | |
| 3.3. | Role of Multidonor Budget Support and Donors in Leveraging Private Capital | |
| 3.4. | New Infrastructure Financing Initiatives | |
| Tables | ||
| 1.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth | |
| 1.2. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators | |
| 2.1. | Average Change in CPIA Scores by Country Groups | |
| 2.2. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Social Indicators | |
| 3.1. | Strengths and Weaknesses of Infrastructure Financing Modalities | |
| Figures | ||
| Chapter 1 | ||
| 1.1. | World GDP Growth and Sub-Saharan Africa Export Growth | |
| 1.2. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Exports by Partner | |
| 1.3. | World Export Interconnectedness, 2000 and 2013 | |
| 1.4. | Current Account Balances and Investment, 2010–13 | |
| 1.5. | Selected Economies: Change in Sovereign Spreads since May 2013 and Fiscal Balance over 2013–14 | |
| 1.6. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Outstanding International Sovereign Bonds for Markets Access Economies | |
| 1.7. | Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP Growth Synchronization: 1990–2013 | |
| 1.8. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Transmission of Shocks from Advanced and Emerging Economies | |
| 1.9. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Gross External Financing, Average 2012–13 | |
| 1.10. | Sub-Saharan African Selected Countries: Currency Depreciation and Inflation Between end-April 2013 and end-July 2014 | |
| 1.11. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Public Sector Debt, 2004–13 | |
| 1.12. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Contribution to Public Sector Debt Accumulation, 2011–13 | |
| 1.13. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2004–13 | |
| 1.14. | Market Access Countries: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2011 versus 2013 | |
| 1.15. | Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: Largest Negative Fiscal Balance Deviation from Projection, 2013 | |
| 1.16. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Primary Fiscal Balance and Capital Expenditure, 2013 | |
| 1.17. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Average Grant Element, 2001–12 | |
| 1.18. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Impact on GDP Level from External Shocks | |
| Chapter 2 | ||
| 2.1. | Building Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa | |
| 2.2. | Macroeconomic Indicators | |
| 2.3. | Average Growth Volatility in Real GDP per Capita: 1990s versus 2000s | |
| 2.4. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP per Capita Growth Acceleration and Deceleration, 1990–2011 | |
| 2.5. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Institutions and Policy Space | |
| 2.6. | Sub-Saharan African Fragile States: Fiscal Space Indicators | |
| 2.7. | Sub-Saharan African Fragile States: Social Indicators | |
| 2.8. | Overall CPIA Scores | |
| 2.9. | Factors in Building Resilience | |
| 2.10. | Political Stability, 1996–2011 | |
| 2.11. | CPIA Public Sector Management and Institutions Cluster, 2005–13 | |
| 2.12. | Government Revenue, 1990–2013 | |
| 2.13. | Control of Corruption, 1998–2012 | |
| 2.14. | Rule of Law, 1998–2012 | |
| 2.15. | Real GDP per Capita | |
| Chapter 3 | ||
| 3.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Levels of Infrastructure Development, 2000 and 2010 | |
| 3.2. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Sectoral Infrastructure Developments | |
| 3.3. | Emerging and Developing Economies: Purchasing Power Parity GDP per Capita versus Quality of Infrastructure, 2013 | |
| 3.4. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Rank of Deviations of World Economic Forum Scores, 2013 | |
| 3.5. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Public Infrastructure and External Financing Sources, 2007 and 2012 | |
| 3.6. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Private Participation in Infrastructure Investment by Country, 1995–2012 | |
| 3.7. | Sub-Saharan Africa: New Syndicated and Large Bilateral Loans for Infrastructure by Lender Nationality, 2006–13 | |
| 3.8. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Tenor of New Syndicated and Large Bilateral Loans | |
| 3.9. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Average Public Investment versus Change in Quality of Infrastructure Scores, 2006–13 | |
| 3.10. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Low-Income Countries: Median General Government Revenue, 1990–2013 | |