Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook:Sub-Saharan Africa
April 2007
World Economic and Financial Surveys
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Full text in: Français |
Sub-Saharan Africa's growth performance during the past three years has been the best in more than three decades, and higher oil revenues and increased debt relief have been used to make progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Despite spending pressures, most countries have managed to preserve macroeconomic stability with policies intended to support and sustain the region’s higher growth. This latest REO is complemented by analyses on the macroeconomic challenges for oil producers, changing trade patterns, including with China, and the development of government debt markets. |
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Contents
| Abbreviations | |
| Preface | |
| I. | Highlights |
| II. | Developments in 2006 and Prospects for 2007 |
| Developments in 2006 | |
| Prospects for 2007 | |
| III. | Macroeconomic Challenges for Africa's Oil Producers: How to Seize the Opportunities and Avoid the Pitfalls |
| Introduction | |
| Policy Challenges Ahead | |
| Conclusions | |
| IV. | Sub-Saharan Africa's Emerging Export Pattern |
| Introduction | |
| Evolution of SSA Export Patterns through 2005 | |
| Export Patterns by Product | |
| Export Patterns by SSA Country Groupings | |
| A Closer Look at SSA's Manufacturing Exports | |
| Benchmarking SSA's Trade Performance | |
| Making Trade an Engine of Development | |
| Constraints on Manufacturing in SSA | |
| V. | Local-Currency Government Debt Markets in Africa: Experiences and Policy Challenges |
| Introduction | |
| Government Debt Markets and Economic Performance | |
| Principal Characteristics and Size of Government Debt Markets in Africa | |
| Structural Challenges in Domestic Debt Markets | |
| Strategies for Sustainable Market Development | |
| Appendix I. Additional Tables and Figures | |
| Appendix II. Methodological Notes to Chapter IV | |
| Statistical Appendix | |
| Data and Conventions | |
| List of Tables | |
| References | |
| Publications of the IMF African Department, 2003-2007 | |
| Tables | |
| 2.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Indicators, 2002-07 |
| 3.1. | Sub-Saharan African OPCs: Quality of Public Sector Management and Institutions, 2005 |
| 4.1. | Sectoral Composition of Exports, 1985-2005 |
| 4.2. | Growth Rates of Broad Export Categories, 1985-2005 |
| 4.3. | Destination Shares of Broad Export Categories, 1990 and 2005 |
| 4.4. | Top Two Markets and Suppliers of Major Manufacturing Exports |
| 4.5. | Undertrading in Developing Countries, 2000-05 |
| 4.6. | Undertrading in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-05 |
| 5.1 | Domestic Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2000 |
| 5.2 | Commercial Bank Holdings of Domestic Debt |
| Figures | |
| 2.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth |
| 2.2. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Contribution to GDP Growth |
| 2.3. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Inflation, 2000-06 |
| 2.4. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Commodity Prices |
| 2.5. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Foreign Reserves |
| 2.6. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Destination of Exports |
| 2.7. | Sub-Saharan Africa: External Debt, 2000-06 |
| 2.8. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Components of Total Net Official Development Assistance |
| 2.9. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real Effective Exchange Rate |
| 2.10. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Debt Trading Volumes |
| 2.11. | Oil-Exporting Countries: Contribution to GDP Growth |
| 2.12. | SSA Oil-Exporting Countries: Fiscal Spending and Oil Revenues, 2002-06 |
| 2.13. | SSA Oil-Exporting Countries: External Spending and Oil Exports, 2002-06 |
| 2.14 | SSA Oil-Exporting Countries: Current Account and Official Reserves |
| 2.15. | International Comparison: Doing Business Indicators |
| 2.16. | Oil-Importing Countries: Contribution to GDP Growth |
| 2.17. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth, 2007 |
| 2.18. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Median Inflation and Countries with Inflation Below 10 Percent |
| 2.19. | Sub-Saharan Africa, Euro Area, and the United States: Real GDP Growth |
| 2.20. | Sub-Saharan Africa, Euro Area, and the United States: GDP Growth Correlation |
| 3.1. | SSA: Oil Production and Oil Prices, 1965-2006 |
| 3.2. | SSA Oil-Producing Countries: Oil and Non-Oil Revenues, 2002 and 2006 |
| 3.3. | SSA Oil-Producing Countries: Portion of Oil Revenue Spent, 2002 and 2006 |
| 3.4. | SSA Oil-Producing Countries: Change in International Reserves and Non-Oil Primary Fiscal Balances, 2002 and 2006 |
| 3.5. | SSA Oil-Producing Countries: Impact of Fiscal Policies, 1970-2006 |
| 3.6. | Selected Indicators in Oil-Producing Countries, 2005 |
| 3.7. | SSA Oil-Producing Countries: Oil and Gas Production, 2001-56 |
| 3.8. | SSA Oil-Producing Countries: Non-hydrocarbon Primary Balance, 2003-45 |
| 3.9. | SSA Oil-Producing Countries: Permanently Sustainable Non-Oil Primary Deficits (3.2 percent return) |
| 3.10. | SSA Oil-Producing Countries: Permanently Sustainable Non-Oil Primary Deficits (4 percent return) |
| 3.11 | SSA Oil-Producing Countries: Real Growth and Sustainable Government Expenditure, 2003-55 |
| 3.12. | Nigeria: Impact of Scaling Up Government Spending, 2002-12 |
| 4.1. | Share of World Trade by Region, 1970-2005 |
| 4.2. | Destination of Sub-Saharan African Exports |
| 4.3. | Total Merchandise Exports by Destination, 1985 and 2005 |
| 4.4. | Destination Shares of Sub-Saharan African Exports, 1990 and 2005 |
| 4.5. | Exports of Major Merchandise Categories, 1985-2005 |
| 4.6. | Selected Economies: Major Product Category Shares of Total Exports |
| 5.1. | Holders of Domestic Debt in Selected African Countries, 2000 |
| 5.2. | Securitized Debt in Selected African Countries, 2004 |
| 5.3. | Holders of Debt in Selected African Countries, 2001-05 |
| Boxes | |
| 2.1. | Trends in Poverty and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 2.2. | Information and Communication Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 2.3. | Debt Relief and Credit Rating in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 2.4. | Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 2.5 | Policies to Promote Private Sector Development in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 3.1. | Limited Oil Reserves and Long-Term Fiscal Policies |
| 3.2. | Oil and Gas Reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 3.3. | Simulating the Impact of Scaled-Up Public Spending |
| 3.4. | Implementation of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in Africa |
| 4.1. | China's Financial Relations with Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 4.2. | International Service Outsourcing to Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 5.1. | Is There a Link Between Domestic Debt and Growth? |
| 5.2. | Government Securities Markets in Kenya |
| 5.3. | Debt Management: The Essentials |
| 5.4. | Government Debt and Private Bond Market Development in Africa |