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Available in PDF (403k) Contents |
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| Preface |
| |
| I |
Overview
Timothy Lane and Marianne
Schulze-Ghattas
References
|
| II |
Background to the Crisis
Javier Hamann
Financial Vulnerabilities
Macroeconomic Considerations
Asset Price Deflation and Bank Failures
References
|
| III |
Program Design
Timothy Lane
Basic Strategy
Exchange Rates
References
|
| IV |
Program Financing and Market Reactions
Timothy Lane and Marianne Schulze-Ghattas
Official Financing and Program Projections
Market Reactions
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| V |
Macroeconomic Environment
Timothy Lane and Steven Phillips
Output Decline and Its Causes
Program Projections
References
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| VI |
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies
Atish Ghosh and Steven Phillips
Monetary Program Design and Implementation
Program Design
Program Implementation
Monetary Policy Stance
Conclusion
Appendix 6.1. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies
References
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| VII |
Fiscal Policy
Timothy Lane and Tsidi Tsikata
Initial Rationale for Fiscal Adjustment
External Adjustment
Financing
Bank Restructuring
What Was Done?
Original Programs
Revisions and Current Prospects
Assessment
Appendix 7.1. Coverage of Reported Fiscal Accounts
Appendix 7.2. Fiscal Adjustment and Current Account Adjustment
Appendix 7.3. Financial Sector Restructuring Costs in the Fiscal Accounts
References
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| VIII |
Structural Reforms
Javier Hamann and Marianne Schulze-Ghattas
Financial Sector and Corporate Restructuring
Governance and Competition Policy
Current and Capital Account Liberalization
Social Sector Policies
General Observations
References
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| IX |
Taking Stock
Timothy Lane
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| Boxes |
| I
| 1.1. | Thailand: Crisis and
Adjustment |
| 1.2. | Indonesia:
The Deepening
Crisis |
| 1.3. | Korea: Crisis
and
Adjustment |
| IV
| 4.1. | Involving Private
Sector
Creditors |
| 4.2. | Projected
Private Capital
Flows in the Three Programs |
| VI
| 6.1. | A Currency Board for Indonesia?
|
| 6.2. | High-Frequency Contagion
in the Exchange and Equity Markets |
| 6.3. | Episodic
Evidence on the
Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Relationship |
| 6.4. | High Interest
Rates in
International Perspective |
| 6.5. | Was There a
Credit Crunch?
|
| VIII
| 8.1. | The World Bank and the Asian
Crisis |
| 8.2. | Indonesia:
Improving
Governance and Competition |
| 8.3. | Social Sector
Policies in
Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand
|
| Tables |
| IV
| 4.1. | Official Financing |
| 4.2. | Exchange Rate
Assumptions
|
| VI
| 6.1. | Czech Republic,
Mexico, and
Sweden: Money and Credit Developments Surrounding Episodes of Devaluation or
Depreciation |
| 6.2. | Required
Monetary
Contraction to Offset Given Risk Premium Shocks |
| 6.3. | Pass-Through
Coefficients
and Implied Expected Real Overnight Rates |
| 6.4. | Effect on
GDP Growth of a
Decrease in Money Growth |
| VII
| 7.1. | Financing of Fiscal
Deficits
|
| 7.2. | Fiscal Policy
in Original
Programs |
| 7.3 . | Sources of
Changes in the
Fiscal Balance
|
| Figures |
| II
| 2.1 . | Indonesia, Korea,
and Thailand:
External Debt and International Reserves |
| 2.2. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Growth and Unemployment |
| 2.3. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Exchange Rate Developments |
| 2.4. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Competitiveness Indicators |
| 2.5. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Central Government Balances |
| 2.6. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Domestic Credit Expansion in Comparison to Nominal GDP Growth |
| 2.7. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Stock Market Prices |
| V
| 5.1. | Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand:
Domestic and External Demand |
| 5.2. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Components of Domestic Demand |
| 5.3. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Net Exports |
| 5.4. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Real GDP Growth |
| 5.5. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Current Account Balance |
| 5.6. | Consensus
Forecasts and
Program Forecasts of Real GDP Growth in 1998 |
| 5.7. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Consumer Price Inflation |
| VI
| 6.1. | Indonesia, Korea, and
Thailand:
Nominal Exchange Rates |
| 6.2. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Reserve and Broad Money Growth, Initial Program Expectations and
Outcomes |
| 6.3. | Korea and
Thailand:
Differences Between Net International Reserves (NIR) and Net Domestic Assets Outturns and
Performance Criteria |
| 6.4. | Indonesia,
Korea and
Thailand: Expected Monthly Rates of Return in U.S. Dollar Terms |
| 6.5. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Nominal and Estimated Real Interest Rates |
| 6.6. | Indonesia,
Korea, and
Thailand: Money and Domestic Credit in Real Terms, July 1996June 1998 |
| VII | 7.1. | Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand: Sectoral Savings-Investment
Balances |
