| Contents |
|
| | Preface |
|
Part
1
136k pdf file
|
Section I. Introduction | |
| Overview |
| What's New? |
| Box | |
| 1. | MULTIMOD: Summary of the
Mark III Generation | |
|
|
|
Section II. The Philosophy and
Basic Structure of MULTIMOD | |
| Philosophical Underpinnings |
|
| History and Country
Disaggregation | |
| Commodity Disaggregation and
Behavioral Units | |
| The Supply Side and the
Unemployment-Inflation | |
| |
Nexus |
| Consumption, Investment, and
International Trade | |
| Fiscal Policy: Government
Spending, Taxes, and Debt | |
| | Monetary Policy |
| Oil, Primary Commodities, and
Nontradables | |
| Financing Constraints and
Absorption for Developing |
| | Countries |
| Accounting Identities, Arbitrage
Conditions, Interest Rates, |
| | and Exchange Rates |
| Boxes |
| 2. | The Spillover Effects of
Government Debt | |
| 3. | Government
Expenditure Multipliers Under Alternative Monetary Policy Reaction Functions |
| Tables |
| Box 2. Effects of a Five-Year
Temporary Tax Cut That Permanently Increases the Debt-to-GDP Ratio of the United States
by 10 Percentage Points |
| Box 3. Effects of a 1 Percent of GDP
Permanent Increase in Government Expenditure in Japan Under Alternative Monetary Policy
Reaction Functions |
|
Part
2
84k pdf file
|
Section III. The Steady-State Analogue Model and Mark
III Solution Methodology |
| An Example of Parallel Equations in
DYNMOD and |
| | SSMOD |
| The Steady-State Model as an
Interpretive Device | |
| On Using SSMOD to Construct the
Control Solution | |
| On Using SSMOD to Obtain
Terminal Conditions | |
| The Mark III Solution
Methodology | |
| Boxes |
| 4. Government Debt, Net Foreign
Liabilities, and the Real Exchange Rate |
| 5. Traditional Solution Techniques
and the MARK III Methodology |
| Table |
| Box 4. Long-Run Effects of
Temporary Tax Cuts That Permanently Increase Debt-to-GDP Ratios by 10 Percentage
Points |
| Figure |
|
| Box 5. Convergence Properties of
Mark III | |
|
Part
3
167k pdf file
|
Section IV. The Inflation-Unemployment
Nexus | |
| The Short-Run Trade-Off Between
Inflation and |
| | Unemployment |
| Implications of Linear and Convex
Phillips Curves | |
| Specification of the Mark III Phillips
Curve | |
| Intrinsic and Expectational
Dynamics | |
| Proxies for Inflation
Expectations | |
| Estimates of the Mark III Phillips
Curve | |
| The Dynamic Effects of Output
Gaps on Unemployment | |
| The CPI Equations and Import Price
Pass-Through | |
| Boxes |
| 6. | Model of a Convex Phillips
Curve | |
| 7. | A Simple
Prior-Consistent Filter for Measuring the Natural Rate |
| 8. | Asymmetries and
Country-Specific Differences in the Real and Nominal Effects of Shocks |
| Tables |
| 1. | Phillips Curve Model |
|
| 2. | Unemployment Equations |
|
| 3. | CPI Equations |
| 4. | Estimated Effects on
the CPI of a 1 Percent Increase in Import Price |
| Box 8. The Asymmetric Effects of
Positive and Negative Money Supply Shocks |
| Figures |
|
| 1. | A Convex Short-Run Phillips
Curve | |
| 2. | Unemployment and Output
Gaps | |
| Box 7. Estimates of the Natural Rate
of Unemployment | |
|
Part
4
204k pdf file
|
Section V. Consumption and Saving Behavior: A
Life-Cycle Perspective |
| The Basic Model |
|
| | Consumption |
| | The Behavior of Dynastic
Households | |
| | The Life-Cycle Behavior of
Disconnected Generations | |
| The Small Open Economy
Case | |
| The Closed Economy Case |
|
| Extensions |
| | Liquidity Constraints |
|
| | Population and Productivity
Growth | |
| Income Profiles: Theory and
Calibration | |
| | Specification Issues |
|
| | Data and Estimation |
|
| | Steady-State Calibration |
|
| Estimates of the Mark III
Consumption Function | |
| Appendix. Fiscal Policy Effects in a
Small Open Economy | |
| Box | |
| 9. | The Global Crowding-Out Effects
of Government Debt |
| Tables |
| 5. | Small Open
Economy Model: Behavioral Equations and Laws of Motion |
| 6. | Closed Economy
Model: Behavioral Equations and Laws of Motion |
| 7. | Extended Closed
Economy Model with Liquidity Constraints and Population and Productivity Growth |
| 8. | Relative Income
Profiles: Nonlinear Least Squares Estimates |
| 9. | Theoretical and
Projected Steady-State Age Distributions |
| 10. | Estimated
Parameters of the Mark III Consumption-Saving Model |
| Box 9. Steady-State Effects of
Simultaneous 10 Percentage Point Increases in Ratios of Government Debt to GDP of All
Industrial Countries |
| Figures |
|
| 3. | Estimated Income Profiles |
|
| 4. | Higher Public Debt
Through a Temporary Tax Cut in Canada |
| 5. | Higher Public Debt
with Permanently Higher Fiscal Spending in Canada |
|
Part
5
142k pdf file
|
Section VI. Investment | |
| Appendix. Investment, Output, and
Interest Rate |
| | Responses to Demand and Supply
Shocks |
| Figures |
|
| 6. | Impulse Responses in Relation to
the Investment Block | |
|
|
|
Section VII. International Trade | |
| Imports |
| Exports |
| Adding Up of World Trade and
Current Account Balances | |
| Tables |
| 11. | Volume Equations for
Imports | |
| 12. | Bilateral Total Exports,
1996 | |
| 13. | Volume Equations for
Exports | |
| 14. | Export Price Equations |
|
| Figures |
|
| 7. | Import-Activity Ratios and Relative
Import Prices | |
| 8. | Export-Activity
Ratios and Real Competitiveness Indices |
|
Part
6
77k pdf file
|
Section VIII. Extensions of the
Core Model | |
| Extensions of Country
Coverage | |
| Other Modifications |
|
| | Fiscal Consolidation |
|
| | Endogenous Productivity
Growth | |
| | Military Expenditures |
|
| Boxes |
| 10. | Steps Necessary to
Integrate Additional Industrial Countries |
|
| |
References
|
