Enhancing China’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: The Path to a High-Income Economy

October 2, 2013

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Malhar S Nabar, and Papa M N'Diaye. Enhancing China’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: The Path to a High-Income Economy, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2013) accessed November 21, 2024

Also available in: 中文

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

China’s current growth model—which has delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty—has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to experience diminishing returns. Delays in advancing the government’s reform agenda will mean that vulnerabilities continue to grow and the probability of stalled convergence increases. On the other hand, with reforms to accelerate TFP growth and shift the economy away from its continued reliance on capital accumulation, China can grow at a healthy pace and maintain its convergence toward the level of high income economies. Evidence from China’s provinces indicates that there is room to improve productivity and sustain such a convergence toward the level of more prosperous economies.

Subject: Economic sectors, Employment, Expenditure, Labor, Production, Public expenditure review, Services sector, Total factor productivity

Keywords: Capital accumulation, China, China reform payoff, Convergence, Convergence process, Economy, Employment, Employment share, Global, Headline GDP, Output gap show, Public expenditure review, Service sector, Service sector reform, Service sector share, Services sector, Share of employment, TFP, TFP growth, Total factor productivity, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

20
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2013/204
Stock No:

WPIEA2013204
ISBN:

9781484354957
ISSN:

1018-5941

Notes

Also available in Chinese

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