Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

May 1, 2001

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Format: Chicago

Steven T Phillips, and Alberto Musso. Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2001) accessed December 26, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.

Subject: Balance of payments, Capital account, Capital account balance, Current account, Current account balance, Inflation, Prices

Keywords: Capital account, Capital account balance, Cross-program data, Current account, Current account balance, East Asia, Follow-up program dummy, Forecasts, IMF, IMF-supported program, Inflation, Program number, Program objective, Program outcome, Program projection, Program scenario, Program year, Programs, Projection error, Projections, Transition economy program, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

34
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2001/045
Stock No:

WPIEA0452001
ISBN:

9781451846478
ISSN:

1018-5941

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