How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts: Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth

April 1, 2000

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Prakash Loungani. How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts: Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2000) accessed December 26, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions? (3) Are forecasts efficient and unbiased? (4) How does private sector performance compare with that of international organizations? (5) Is forecaster discord a reliable predictor of forecast accuracy? Two key results emerge. First, the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished. Second, there is high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations.

Subject: Balance of payments, Economic growth, Economic recession, GDP forecasting, Income inequality, National accounts, Private capital flows, Production, Production growth, Tax incentives

Keywords: Africa, Asia and Pacific, B. forecasting recession, Consensus, Developing country sample, Eastern Europe, Economic recession, Forecaster discord, Forecasting, GDP, GDP forecasting, Global, IMF, Income inequality, Industrialized country sample, Positive correlation, Private capital flows, Production growth, Real GDP, Recession year, Recessions, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

32
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2000/077
Stock No:

WPIEA0772000
ISBN:

9781451849981
ISSN:

1018-5941

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