IMF Working Papers

The Uzbek Growth Puzzle

By Jeromin Zettelmeyer

September 1, 1998

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Jeromin Zettelmeyer. The Uzbek Growth Puzzle, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1998) accessed December 22, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan’s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.

Subject: Agricultural commodities, Capital spending, Commodities, Environment, Expenditure, Macrostructural analysis, Natural resources, Public investment spending, Structural reforms

Keywords: Agricultural commodities, Baltics, Capital spending, Central Asia, Cotton, Eastern Europe, Energy, Growth, Natural resources, Output, Public Investment, Public investment spending, Structural reforms, Transition, Uzbek experience, Uzbek growth experience, Uzbek growth puzzle, Uzbek output path, Uzbek transition experience, Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan country dummy variable, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    36

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 1998/133

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA1331998

  • ISBN:

    9781451855463

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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