Japan out of the Lost Decade: Divine Wind or Firms’ Effort?

By Ichiro Tokutsu, Kazuo Ogawa, Mika Saito

July 1, 2012

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Ichiro Tokutsu, Kazuo Ogawa, and Mika Saito. Japan out of the Lost Decade: Divine Wind or Firms’ Effort?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2012) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

A surge of exports in the 2000s helped Japan exit the severe decade-long stagnation known as the lost decade. Using panel data of Japanese exporting firms, we examine the sources of the export surge during this period. One view argues that the so-called "divine wind" or exogenous external demand boosted Japanese exports. The other view emphasizes the role of supply factors such as productivity gains, materialized after long-fought restructuring efforts during the lost decade. Estimating the firm-level export function allows us to assess the relative importance of these demand and supply factors. Evidence shows that firms' efforts were more important than the divine wind.

Subject: Export performance, Exports, International trade, National accounts, Production, Productivity, Total factor productivity, Transportation

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, B. equilibrium export price, Export, Export function, Export growth, Export performance, Exports, Global, Lost Decade, Margin equation, Margin variable, North America, Price-Cost Margin, Productivity, Total Factor Productivity, Transportation, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

40
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2012/171
Stock No:

WPIEA2012171
ISBN:

9781475505191
ISSN:

1018-5941

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