Monetary Policy and Leading Indicators of Inflation in Sweden
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Summary:
This paper derives a set of leading indicators of inflation for Sweden. It also discusses methodological and policy issues pertaining to the estimation of these indicators. The main findings are: (1) narrow money is the most powerful leading inflation indicator; (2) broad money and inflation expectations have significant predictive information on inflation; (3) the output gap, interest rates, and the credit aggregate have some predictive information on inflation, and this information is confined to a shorter time horizon than either the monetary aggregates or inflation expectations; and (4) implied forward rates have only weak predictive information on inflation.
Series:
Working Paper No. 1997/034
Subject:
Cyclical indicators Economic growth Exchange rates Foreign exchange Inflation Inflation targeting Monetary policy Nominal effective exchange rate Prices
English
Publication Date:
April 1, 1997
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451978926/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA0341997
Pages:
31
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