IMF Working Papers

Monetary Policy and Leading Indicators of Inflation in Sweden

By Josef Baumgartner, Göran Zettergren, Ramana Ramaswamy

April 1, 1997

Download PDF

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Josef Baumgartner, Göran Zettergren, and Ramana Ramaswamy. Monetary Policy and Leading Indicators of Inflation in Sweden, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1997) accessed December 21, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper derives a set of leading indicators of inflation for Sweden. It also discusses methodological and policy issues pertaining to the estimation of these indicators. The main findings are: (1) narrow money is the most powerful leading inflation indicator; (2) broad money and inflation expectations have significant predictive information on inflation; (3) the output gap, interest rates, and the credit aggregate have some predictive information on inflation, and this information is confined to a shorter time horizon than either the monetary aggregates or inflation expectations; and (4) implied forward rates have only weak predictive information on inflation.

Subject: Cyclical indicators, Economic growth, Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Nominal effective exchange rate, Prices

Keywords: Cyclical indicators, Exchange rates, GDP deflator, Inflation, Inflation expectation, Inflation report, Inflation targeting, Inflation well, Leading indicators, Nominal effective exchange rate, Real GDP, Sweden, Time horizon, Underlying inflation, WP, Yield curve

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    31

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 1997/034

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA0341997

  • ISBN:

    9781451978926

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

You May Also Be Interested In...

How Has Dollarization Served Timor-Leste So Far?

December 20, 2024

A Confidence-Financial Inclusion Nexus in the Caucasus and Central Asia?

December 20, 2024

Ukraine: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine

December 20, 2024

Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Arrangements Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Second Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania

December 20, 2024