Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

By Richard Hemming, Axel Schimmelpfennig, Michael Kell

May 23, 2003

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Richard Hemming, Axel Schimmelpfennig, and Michael Kell. Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2003) accessed November 22, 2024

Summary

Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial--that is, currency, debt, and banking--crises. This paper addresses four questions: What are the fiscal causes of crises? Which fiscal vulnerability indicators help to predict crises? Can fiscal variables explain the severity of crises? And what are the fiscal consequences of crises? Its findings are based on statistical analysis of a large data set of fiscal variables for 29 emerging market economies over 1970-2000 and detailed case studies of 11 emerging market crises during the 1990s that focus on structural and institutional dimensions of fiscal vulnerability.

Subject: Banking crises, Currency crises, Early warning systems, Financial crises, Fiscal policy, Public debt

Keywords: Africa, Banking crises, Country case studies, Crisis, Currency crises, Debt, Debt crisis, Debt variable, Deficit, Emerging market crisis, Global, OP, Short-term debt, Vulnerability indicator

Publication Details

Pages:

131
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Occasional Paper No. 2003/002
Stock No:

S218EA
ISBN:

9781589061965
ISSN:

0251-6365

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