Evaluating the Effectiveness of Trade Conditions in Fund Supported Programs

October 27, 2005

Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the full text (192KB pdf file).

This paper was discussed in an informal Board seminar.
 Contents   
  1. Introduction and Overview
  2. Some Basic Facts about Trade Conditions
  3. Evaluating the Effectiveness of Trade Conditions
    1. Methodology
    2. Effectiveness of Trade Conditions
    3. Ownership and Effects of Trade Conditions
    4. Additional Results and Robustness Checks
  4. Conclusions

Appendix

I. Data Sources and Descriptions
II. Statistical Specifications and Detailed Results

Appendix Tables

  1. IMF Programs with and Without Trade Conditionality, 1993–2003
  2. Summary Statistics of Trade Conditions, 1993–2003
  3. List of Countries in the Sample
  4. Average Effect of Trade Conditions
  5. "During-Program" and "Post-Program" Effects in Weighted Regressions
  6. Time Profile of the Impact from Trade Conditions
  7. Role of Ownership
  8. High vs. Low Ownership Relative to Median
  9. Alternative Control Group
  10. Continuous Trade Reforms
  11. PRGF Programs
  12. Non-PRGF Programs
  13. Excluding Programs without Explicit Trade Liberalization Conditions
  14. Accounting for Endogenous Trade Conditions Using Trade Restrictive Index
  15. Discrete Measures of Ownership, with Correction for Selection Bias
  16. Nominal Implementation of Trade Conditions
  17. Accounting for Endogenous Ownership Using Governance Indicator
  18. BOP Crisis and Capital Account Restrictions
  19. Correlations of Measures for Ownership and Implementation Records of Trade Conditions

References