Colombo, Sri Lanka
March 19, 2001
Mr. Horst Köhler
Managing Director
International Monetary Fund
Washington, D.C. 20431
Dear Mr. Köhler:
1. The Sri Lankan authorities have held discussions
with Fund staff on an economic program that could be supported by a
Stand-By Arrangement. Based on these discussions, the attached Memorandum
on Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) discusses the macroeconomic
framework for the government's economic program for 2001-02. In support
of these policies, the government requests that the Executive Board
of the Fund approve a 14-month Stand-By Arrangement in an amount equivalent
to SDR 200 million.
2. The government of Sri Lanka will provide the Fund
with such information as the Fund may request in connection with Sri
Lanka's progress in implementing the economic and financial policies
and achieving the objectives of the program. The government believes
that the policies set out in the attached MEFP and
Technical Memorandum of Understanding are adequate
to achieve the objectives of the program. However, it stands ready to
take any additional measures appropriate for this purpose, and will
consult with the Fund in accordance with the policies of the Fund on
such consultations.
Sincerely yours,
/s/
H.E. Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga
Minister of Finance |
|
/s/
Governor A. S. Jayawardena
Central Bank of Sri Lanka |
Attachments:
Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies
Technical Memorandum of Understanding
Sri Lanka—Memorandum on Economic and Financial
Policies
I. Background
1. Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 6 percent
in 2000 as output in the manufacturing, in particular the textile industry,
and services sectors picked up. Domestic demand, led by the public
sector, rose sharply in 2000 and the external current account widened
from 3¾ percent of GDP in 1999 to about 7 percent. Merchandise
imports expanded by 23 percent, in part because of one off items relating
to military hardware. Domestic demand and rising world prices also led
to higher inflation which rose from 4 percent (year on year) to 11 percent
by end-2000.
2. The widened savings and investment balance
was attributed in large part to increased government spending and bank
borrowing by public enterprises, and adverse terms of trade shock.
The fiscal deficit worsened by 2½ percentage points of GDP in
2000 to about 10 percent (excluding grants), reflecting increases in
security related spending, interest payments, and a revenue shortfall.
While the government responded by delaying development spending, domestic
borrowing in 2000 rose to 8½ percent of GDP. Several public corporations
have been financially hit by the rising world oil price as domestic
price adjustments lagged behind. As a result, losses of the state oil,
electricity, and transport companies amounted to 2 percent of GDP, compared
with ¾ percent of GDP a year earlier.
3. To finance these shortfalls, bank borrowing
by the public sector amounted to more than 140 percent of broad money
growth in 2000. As a result, official foreign reserves declined
by more than $600 million as the central bank intervened in the foreign
exchange market. Import cover declined from 2¼ months at end-1999
to 1¼ months by end-2000. The nominal exchange rate was adjusted
in small steps throughout the year and the rupee depreciated by 14½
percent per U.S. dollar. In addition, short-term interest rates were
raised as banks became short of liquidity. The reverse repo rate rose
from 13 percent at end-1999 to 20 percent at end-2000. By mid-January,
the reverse repo rate rose further to 23 percent.
II. Macroeconomic Policies in 2001-02
4. The principal objectives of the economic and
financial policies in 2001 and early 2002 are to regain macroeconomic
stability, start reversing the loss in official foreign reserves, while
maintaining economic growth at about 4½ percent in 2001.
To this end, the government is addressing the fiscal imbalance and the
rigidity of the exchange rate regime. Fiscal measures are being introduced
in the 2001 budget and domestic prices have been adjusted to eliminate
operating losses of public corporations. A flexible exchange rate system
was adopted on January 23, 2001 to help preserve the level of official
reserves.
Fiscal policy
5. Fiscal consolidation will be a key component
of macroeconomic policies in 2001-02. Under the 2001 budget, the
fiscal deficit will be reduced from 10 percent of GDP in 2000 to 8½
percent of GDP, excluding grants (or 8 percent of GDP with grants).
An adjustment of more than 2½ percent of GDP will be required,
beyond offsetting the increases in interest payments from 5¾
percent of GDP to 6½ percent of GDP (owing to the larger debt
stock and higher interest rates) and the larger wage bill as the full
impact of wage increases in October 2000 will be realized. In addition,
public corporations will repay bank borrowing by about ½ percent
of GDP (a turnaround of almost 3 percentage points of GDP from a net
borrowing of 2¼ percent of GDP in 2000).
6. Revenue will be raised by 1½ percent
of GDP through several measures to be implemented in March with the
announcement of the 2001 budget. These measures include introducing
a temporary surcharge of 40 percent on import tariff, except those with
tariff rates of zero and two percent (to be removed by 2003 at the latest),
raising the National Security Levy (NSL) rate by 1 percentage points
to 7½ percent, and imposing a 20 percent surcharge on corporate
income tax. In addition, the coverage of Large Taxpayer Unit will be
expanded to include the largest GST tax payers. Other administration
processes will be strengthened. As a contingency measure, excises on
cigarettes would be raised if needed. All new tax incentives approved
by the BOI in 2001 would be subject to review in two years, but such
reviews would to have to conform to the legislative requirement in Sri
Lanka.
7. On the expenditure side, civil servants will
receive no pay rise during 2001, and outlays on other goods and services
will be tightly controlled. There will also be a hiring freeze on
civil servants. As during 2000, compulsory savings requirement of 5
percent on procurement costs for each ministry will continue to remain
in place, and benefits to parliamentarians and ministers will be reduced.
Security related spending will be reduced to Rs 63 billion in 2001 implying
a reduction of nearly 1¼ percent of GDP. All transactions will
be recorded and monitored through the budget, and any overspending of
security related expenditure will be offset instantaneously by further
measures. In addition to raising excises on cigarettes, consideration
would be given to excises on other items, a possible increase in the
GST and immediate expenditure cuts on goods and services and domestically
financed capital spending.
8. Specific provision will be made, however, for
temporary, targeted, transfers to the very poor to partially offset
the impact of the price increases. Savings from improved targeting
of the general Samurdhi welfare program will be used to offset
some of the increase in the cost. Detailed modalities will be worked
out with the assistance of the World Bank. Prompt increase in administered
prices (see below) will allow a reduction in subsidies and transfers
to public enterprises.
9. Capital spending will be increased by more
than ¾ percent of GDP in line with faster disbursement of foreign
financed projects. Priority areas will be health, education, power,
and road rehabilitation. In particular, as large foreign-financed infrastructure
projects are entering a major construction phase, disbursements are
expected to increase. Other rupee-funded projects, however, will be
kept to a minimum; the construction of new buildings in particular will
be curtailed.
10. Domestic debt financing of the budget will
be reduced in part through increased privatization proceeds. In
January, 2001 we received $25 million of privatization receipts for
the latest phased the sale of shares in Sri Lanka Airlines to Emirates.
The sale of the Co-Operative Wholesale Establishment's wheat operation
to Prima is ongoing and we expect the sale of Shell and Telecom shares
and the opening of the insurance sector by the fourth quarter of 2001.
Altogether receipts are expected to amount to 1¾ percent of GDP
or about $275 million. The 2001 budget clearly spells out privatization
and restructuring plans for the year, consistent with the envisaged
privatization receipts. The quarterly targets for privatization receipts
that we envisage under the program appear in Table
1 of the Technical Memorandum of Understanding.
Administered prices
11. The government has set out a timetable for
adjusting administered prices, especially those for oil products, public
transportation, and utilities. Increases in oil product prices on
December 27 brought the rise in diesel and kerosene prices to about
80 percent since February 2000. Electricity prices were raised in February,
2001. By March 2001, domestic petroleum product price increases will
have eliminated operating losses of the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation
(based on the WEO scenario of oil prices falling to $25/barrel for 2001).
The remaining price increases of fuel oil and diesel are prior actions.
12. These price adjustments will enable the public
corporate sector to repay Rs 7 billion to the banking system (½
percent of GDP). A ceiling has been set on public sector bank borrowing
to ensure these corporations adjust their prices as needed for any change
in world prices so that operating profit is maintained. To this end,
the government will draw up contingent measures including further price
adjustments, in consultation with Fund staff to be implemented by midyear,
in case the WEO price projections are exceeded. An automatic pricing
mechanism will be put in place by end-2001 that will ensure that domestic
fuel prices are adjusted sufficiently on a timely basis to pass on changes
in international costs, enabling CPC to avoid recourse to bank financing.
Exchange rate and monetary policies
13. The government adopted a floating exchange
rate regime on January 23, 2001. The market response has been favorable
and the rate has stabilized at around Rs 86-88 per U.S. dollar. The
central bank will no longer announce its daily buying and selling rates
within an exchange rate band. The exchange rate will continue to be
determined by the demand and supply in the market, with the central
bank announcing the weighted average interbank rate on a daily basis.
The authorities attach great importance to maintaining the competitiveness
of the Sri Lankan economy and strengthening the reserves position. The
Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) remains ready to intervene in a limited
manner in the foreign exchange market to dampen extreme volatility,
but will not intervene to prevent adjustment of the exchange rate to
macroeconomic fundamentals. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka will not have
any administrative interference with the market determination of the
exchange rate. To prevent commercial banks building large positions,
limits have been imposed on net foreign open positions of their working
balances. The authorities will consult regularly with the Fund staff
on their exchange rate policy.
14. Monetary policy will need to remain tight
until fiscal consolidation can be credibly advanced. A monetary
framework will be developed during 2001, with technical assistance from
the Fund and Sweden that would be consistent with the floating regime.
The aim is to move toward a more explicit inflation objective over the
medium term. Meanwhile, to provide a nominal anchor, the growth of reserve
money will be limited to below 13 percent, which is consistent with
a constant money multiplier and inflation target of 8 percent. Several
other indicators of monetary conditions will be closely monitored, including
domestic inflation, forward exchange rates and foreign interest rates.
Open market operations using treasury bills will be the main monetary
policy instrument. Repo and reserve repo rates will also be used to
control liquidity condition in the market. High real interest rates
are expected to remain in the first half of 2001, given inflation expectations
and the need to stabilize the exchange rate. There could be room for
some modest interest rate reduction in the latter part of 2001 as fiscal
consolidation is advanced.
External targets and policies
15. Under the fiscal and monetary policy mix,
the external current account balance is expected to fall from 7 percent
of GDP in 2000 to 3 percent of GDP in 2001. The privatization receipts,
net government borrowing of about $130 million, and foreign direct investment
close to $190 million, are expected to finance the current account deficit.
However, to rebuild the low level of reserves to at least above 2 months
imports in 2001, i.e., $1½ billion, and to avoid excessive slowing
down of the economy, balance of payments support of $530 million is
required. Of this amount, about $200 million is expected to be financed
from commercial borrowing (of which $100 million is refinancing of the
syndicated loan extended to the Ministry of Finance in 2000), while
the remaining amount will be provided by multilateral and bilateral
official creditors. Assurances on financial support have been received
from the international community, especially the World Bank, the Asian
Development Bank, bilateral creditors and the private sector, that would
be sufficient to meet financing needs in 2001 and 2002.
16. To ensure that Sri Lanka maintains its repayments
capacity, external commercial borrowing will be limited. Assuming
that Sri Lanka's external borrowing in the medium term will be largely
on concessional terms, its debt service ratio will remain below 18 percent
of exports of goods and services. External public debt will peak around
2001 at 70 percent of GDP and is expected to decline as structural issues
are addressed. Short term debt as percent of gross reserves will remain
broadly at 50 percent during 2001-02.
III. Medium-term Outlook
17. The government is publicly committed to building
a strong private sector-driven market economy. Such a medium-term
strategy requires a macroeconomic policy mix supportive of private sector
expansion, through fiscal consolidation, lower real interest rates,
and extensive structural reform. The macroeconomic framework could envisage
annual growth of 5½-6½ percent, with inflation moderating
to below 5 percent. The external current account deficit would decline
to below 3 percent of GDP, financed with rising private capital inflows.
Official reserves could be brought back to an appropriate level (around
3½ months of import cover) over the medium term which could require
additional financing from both official and private sources under a
medium term framework.
18. Fiscal consolidation would lower the overall
fiscal deficit to below 5 percent of GDP by 2005. Spending will
be in line with the poverty reduction strategy presented to the Development
Forum. Transfers to public corporations will be gradually eliminated,
and steps will be taken to move the civil service pension scheme on
to an actuarially sound basis. The focus of capital spending would be
on rural education, health, and infrastructure, with a provision for
retrenchment schemes. Domestic financing will be reduced, including
from nonbank sources, so as not to inhibit development of a broader
capital market.
IV. Structural Issues
19. Efforts will continue to carry forward structural
reform in 2001-02. Public enterprise restructuring will include
privatization of commercial activities and administrative restructuring
of the Ministry of Finance and the CBSL. Labor market reform will aim
to facilitate greater labor mobility while ensuring that adequate social
safety net is put in place. A working group on labor market reform will
establish standardized formulae for compensation, and establish fixed
time limits for approval by the Commissioner of Labor for involuntary
employee separation. The social safety net will be dedicated to job
counseling, job placement and retraining of displaced workers.
20. Banking sector soundness has been further
improved. Bank supervision has been strengthened and onsite inspection
has become more frequent. Most banks meet the risk-weighted capital
adequacy ratio of 9 percent, and even though nonperforming loans are
still large, adequate provisioning have been made by banks. The government
has agreed to participate in the Financial Sector Assessment Program
(FSAP) process. Bank of Ceylon's Board members have been replaced by
people from the private business community and profits were made in
2000, notwithstanding the fact that full provisioning was made for nonperforming
loans. A new restructuring plan is under preparation, including steps
to achieve performance targets that will include a reduction in the
level of nonperforming loans through enhanced loan evaluation and recovery.
This restructuring plan will replace the previous memorandum of understanding,
which expires in June 2001.
21. The People's Bank has a new management team,
some from internationally reputable banks, in place since early March.
The Bank improved its financial position in the second half of 2000,
achieving a break even point in its operations. By September 2001, the
new management team will provide a detailed proposal for restructuring
that would make the bank commercially viable in the medium term. Measures
are being introduced to ensure no operating loss in 2001 even after
full provisioning has been made. The government will not provide additional
capital until it is satisfied that the proposed restructuring plan is
viable and will be implemented. Meanwhile, the bank's 2000 financial
statement will be prepared by end-March and an audit completed by end
May 2001.
22. To address the structure of the budget and
enhance transparency, dependence on the NSL will be reduced. The
changeover will be initiated with the 2002 Budget. There will be a significant
reduction of NSL and a compensating increase in GST, with the timing
and the amounts to be decided during the September program review. We
envisage the full integration of the NSL with the GST by end-2004. Starting
with the 2002 budget, no new tax incentives will be provided by the
Board of Investment, which will be subsequently eliminated, and the
granting and monitoring of all tax preferences will be consolidated
to the Inland Revenue Department. In particular, subject to resolution
of the legal dispute, the customs regime of BOI and non-BOI importers
will be unified under the Customs Department. To promote private sector
activity, limits on inward foreign direct investment will be phased
out, starting from mid-2001.
V. Program Monitoring and Data Issues
23. The government is aware that purchases under
the stand-by arrangement would be conditioned on the observance of quantitative
performance criteria (Table 1) and completion
of reviews. There will be three reviews under the program, which will
be completed by August 29, 2001, November 29, 2001, and May 14, 2001.
The amounts available are proposed to be phased in accordance with Table
1. The monitoring of the program will also take into account indicative
targets and structural benchmarks (Table 2). Quantitative
performance criteria, indicative targets, and precise definitions of
quantitative variables monitored under the program are set out in the
attached Technical Memorandum of Understanding. The standard clauses
on overdue financial obligations to the Fund, accumulation of external
payments arrears, exchange restrictions, multiple currency practices,
bilateral payments agreements inconsistent with Article VIII, and import
restrictions for balance of payments purposes are also applicable as
performance criteria.
24. We understand that prior actions under the program
would have to be implemented at least five days before the Board meeting.
We will also transmit to Fund staff all the necessary documentation
required under the Fund's safeguard rules, before the Board meeting.
25. Monitoring the program described in this memorandum
will require timely and accurate data, for which a separate arrangement
has been made with Fund staff.
Table 1. Performance criteria and Indicative Targets,
March 2001-March 2002
(in billions of rupees; unless otherwise indicated)
|
|
Estimate 2000
end-December
|
Indicative 2001
end-March
|
2000
end-June
|
2001
end-September
|
2001
end-December
|
Indicative 1/
2002
end-March
|
|
Performance Criteria
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ceiling on banks' net claims on government 2/ |
147
|
157
|
153
|
158
|
133
|
125
|
Ceiling on net domestic assets of the CBSL 2/ |
47
|
47
|
46
|
44
|
12
|
3
|
Floor on net international reserves of CBSL 3/
(in millions of U.S. dollars)
|
45
|
710
|
745
|
810
|
1,195
|
1,310
|
Ceiling on contracting or guaranteeing of new nonconcessional
medium- and long-term external debt by the public sector
|
…
|
350
|
350
|
350
|
350
|
400
|
Ceiling on the stock of short-term external debt
outstanding |
150
|
150
|
150
|
150
|
150
|
150
|
Accumulation of external payments arrears
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Continuous performance
criterion during the program
period |
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Indicative targets
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Floor on central government revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative from January
1, 2001 |
211
|
58
|
119
|
190
|
258
|
…
|
Cumulative from January
1, 2002 |
|
|
|
|
|
67
|
Primary fiscal balance of central government excluding
interest payments |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative from January
1, 2001 |
-53
|
-9
|
-15
|
-20
|
-32
|
…
|
Cumulative from January
1, 2002 |
|
|
|
|
|
-5
|
Stock of Domestic Debt of the Central Government
4/ |
661
|
692
|
714
|
740
|
729
|
754
|
Credit to public corporations by the banking system
5/ |
38
|
45
|
50
|
42
|
31
|
30
|
Ceiling on reserve money of the CBSL |
105
|
111
|
113
|
115
|
120
|
122
|
1/ Performance criterion to be set at the time of second
review when 2002 budget will be discussed.
2/ Adjusted downward by the full amount of excess rupee equivalent of
privatization receipts and upward by shortfall of rupee amount of privatization
up to quarterly limits as set out in Table 1 of the TMU; adjusted upward/downward
by shortfall/excess.
3/ Adjusted upward by the full amount of excess privatization receipts
and downward by shortfall in privatization receipts up to quarterly
limits as set out in Table 1 of the TMU; adjusted
upward/downward by excess/shortfall of foreign program assistance as
set out in Table 2 of the TMU.
4/ Based on the stock of government domestic debt as specifically defined
in the TMU.
5/ Based on the stock of credit to public corporations by the banking
system.
Table 2. Sri Lanka: Prior Actions and Structural Benchmarks
Prior actions |
1. |
Shift to a flexible exchange
rate regime |
Jan. 23, 2001-Done |
2. |
Increase administrative
prices of energy and transport fares aimed at eliminating operational
loses of public enterprises. In addition to the administered price
increases announced already, further price increases will be made
on Diesel (by Rs. 3 per liter) and Fuel oils (by Rs. 2 per liter) |
March 25, 2001 |
3. |
Announce revenue and expenditure
measures in 2001 budget to achieve program fiscal target, including
commitments on privatization and expected receipts. |
March 8, 2001
Done |
Structural benchmarks |
1. |
The new management of
People's Bank to prepare a detailed proposal for restructuring to
make the bank commercially viable in the medium term. |
September 2001 |
2. |
The new management of
Bank of Ceylon to prepare a new restructuring plan which will replace
the previous memorandum of understanding. |
September 2001 |
3. |
Bring the GST into the
Coverage of the Large Taxpayer Unit (LTU). |
November 2001 |
4. |
Starting with the 2002
budget, all tax concessions to be consolidated into the Inland Revenue
Department Act; the Board of Investment will cease to grant new
tax incentives. |
November 2001 |
5. |
Reduce dependence on the
National Security Levy (NSL) by announcing a significant reduction
in the NSL rate and a compensating increase in the GST rate in the
2002 budget. |
November 2001 |
6. |
Start phasing out remaining
limits on inward foreign direct investment. |
December 2001 |
7. |
Adopt an automatic petroleum
pricing method to permit timely pass through of input costs that
would ensure nonrecurrence of operating losses of Ceylon Petroleum
Corporation. |
December 2001 |
Table 3. Sri Lanka: Proposed Schedule of Reviews and
Purchases
|
Date |
Amount of Purchase
(in millions of SDRs)
|
In Percent of
Quota
|
Conditions
|
|
Board approval |
103.35
|
25.0
|
Approval of Stand-By arrangement.
|
August 30, 2001 |
24.16
|
5.8
|
Observance of end-June 2001 performance
criteria and completion of first review.
|
November 30, 2001 |
24.16
|
5.8
|
Observance of end-September 2001
performance criteria and completion of second review.
|
February 28, 2002 |
24.16
|
5.8
|
Observance of end-December 2001
performance criteria.
|
May 15, 2002 |
24.16
|
5.8
|
Observance of end-March 2002 performance
criteria and completion of third review.
|
Total |
200.0
|
48.4
|
|
|
Memorandum item:
Total quota
|
413.4
|
100.0
|
|
Technical Memorandum of Understanding on the Program
Supported by Stand-By Arrangement
1. This memorandum sets out the understandings between
the Sri Lankan authorities and the Fund relating to the monitoring of
the program for 2001-2 supported by the Stand-by Arrangement. It specifies
the quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets, and the
content and frequency of the data to be provided for monitoring the
financial program.
I. Fiscal Targets
A. Performance Criterion on Net Claims on the Government
by the Banking System
|
|
Ceiling
(In billions of rupees) |
|
Outstanding stock as of : |
March
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
157 |
June
30, 2001 (performance criterion) |
153 |
September
30, 2001 (performance criterion) |
158 |
December
31, 2001 (performance criterion) |
133 |
March
31, 2002 (indicative target) 1/ |
125 |
|
1/ Performance criterion
to be set at the time of the Second Review of the arrangement. |
2. Net claims on government by the banking system
is defined as the difference between banks' claims on government, and
the deposits of government, the central and provincial governments with
the banking system. The ceiling on net claims on government is cumulative
from the start of the fiscal year.
The following adjustments will apply:
3. The ceiling on net claims on government will be adjusted
downwards by the full amount of excess rupee equivalent of privatization
receipts and upward by shortfall of rupee amount of privatization up
to limits as set out in Table 1; adjusted upward/downward
by the shortfall/excess of rupee equivalent of foreign program assistance
as set out in Table 2. However, the upward adjustment
for shortfalls in foreign program financing will be limited to a maximum
of $25 million at end-March 2001, $50 million at end-June 2001, $100
million at end-September and $200 million at both end-December 2001
and end-March 2002 as described in Section III below using program exchange
rate in Table 4.
4. The ceiling will be adjusted downward by
the full amount of any privatization receipts from residents in rupee
equivalent amount using the program exchange rates if receipts are in
foreign currency. The same adjusters on net claims to government will
also apply to the indicative target on net domestic debt in Table D
below.
B. Indicative Target on the Primary Fiscal Balance
|
|
Ceiling
(In billions of rupees) |
|
Cumulative balance from January 1,
2001 to: |
March
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
-9 |
June
30, 2001 (indicative target) |
-15 |
September
30, 2001 (indicative target) |
-20 |
December
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
-32 |
Cumulative balance from January 1,
2002 to: |
|
March
31, 2002 (indicative target) 1/ |
-5 |
|
1/ Indicative target to
be set at the time of the Second Review of the arrangement. |
5. Government primary fiscal balance is defined
as the overall central government fiscal deficit minus interest payments
and the ceiling on government primary balance will be monitored according
to this definition. For monitoring purposes, primary fiscal balance
excludes grants and privatization receipts. The ceiling on government
primary balance is cumulative from the start of the fiscal year. However,
the government primary balance should also broadly equal the sum of
net foreign financing, net bank financing, and non-bank financing as
recorded by the Public Debt Department, Central Bank of Sri Lanka, minus
interest payments.
C. Indicative Target on the Central Government Revenue
|
|
Floor
(In billions of rupees) |
|
Cumulative balance from January 1,
2001 to: |
March
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
58 |
June
30, 2001 (indicative target) |
119 |
September
30, 2001 (indicative target) |
190 |
December
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
258 |
Cumulative balance from January 1,
2002 to: |
|
March
31, 2002 (indicative target) 1/ |
67 |
|
1/ Indicative target to
be set at the time of the Second Review of the arrangement. |
6. Central government revenue is defined as
the central government revenue as reported in the treasury accounts,
and excludes foreign grants and privatization receipts. The floor on
central government revenue is cumulative from the start of the fiscal
year.
D. Indicative Target on Stock of Net Domestic Debt
of the Central Government
|
|
Ceiling
(In billions of rupees) |
|
Stock Balance at the end of: |
March
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
692 |
June
30, 2001 (indicative target) |
714 |
September
30, 2001 (indicative target) |
740 |
December
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
729 |
Stock Balance at the end of: |
|
March
31, 2002 (indicative target) 1/ |
754 |
|
1/ Indicative target to
be set at the time of the Second Review of the arrangement. |
7. For the purpose of program monitoring, the stock
of net domestic debt (NDD) of the central government will be measured
by instruments and would be the sum of the stocks of the following government
debt instruments less government deposits: (a) Rupee securities, (b)
Treasury Bills (c) Treasury Bonds (d) Treasury Certificates of Deposits
(e) Provisional advances from the CBSL (f) Other - which consist of
overdraft, import bills and syndicated loans with People's Bank and
Bank of Ceylon less government deposits with the CBSL, People's Bank
and Bank of Ceylon. The reporting requirement for NDD appears in Table
6. The data on the instruments (a) through (d) will be provided
by the public debt office and data on (e) and (f) will be based on the
balance sheet data of CBSL, People's Bank and Bank of Ceylon as provided
by the CBSL. The adjusters to net claims on government will also apply
to the indicative target on NDD.
E. Indicative Target on Credit to Public Corporations
by the Banking System
|
|
Ceiling
(In billions of rupees) |
|
Outstanding stock as of : |
March
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
45 |
June
30, 2001 (indicative target) |
50 |
September
30, 2001 (indicative target) |
42 |
December
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
31 |
March
31, 2002 (indicative target) 1/ |
30 |
|
1/ Indicative target to
be set at the time of the Second Review of the arrangement. |
8. Credit to public corporations by the banking
system is defined as credit of the banking system to public corporations.
It comprise both credit from deposit banking units and from foreign
currency banking units. Public enterprises comprise of companies currently
classified as public corporations under the CBSL's classification in
the monetary survey (Table 3).
II. Monetary Targets
A. Performance Criterion on Net Domestic Assets of
the CBSL
|
|
Ceiling
(In billions of rupees) |
|
Outstanding stock as of : |
March
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
47 |
June
30, 2001 (performance criterion) |
46 |
September
30, 2001 (performance criterion) |
44 |
December
31, 2001 (performance criterion) |
12 |
March
31, 2002 (indicative target) 1/ |
3 |
|
1/ Performance criterion
to be set at the time of the Second Review of the arrangement. |
9. Net domestic assets of the CBSL is defined
as the difference between reserve money and net foreign assets of the
CBSL valued in rupee. Reserve money is defined below in II.B. Net foreign
assets of the CBSL are the net claims on nonresidents, in all currency
denominations and government (net). For program monitoring purposes,
net foreign assets will be calculated using the exchange rate given
in Table 4.
The following adjustments will apply:
10. The NDA ceiling is based on a baseline path
of NFA that excludes reserve losses on forwards (III.A). The NDA
ceiling will be adjusted downwards by the full amount of excess rupee
equivalent of privatization receipts and upwards by shortfall of rupee
amount of privatization up to quarterly limits as set out in Table
1; adjusted upward/downward by the shortfall/excess of rupee equivalent
of foreign program assistance as set out in Table
2 using the program exchange rate in Table 4.
However, the upward adjustment for shortfalls in foreign program financing
will be limited to a maximum of $25 million at end-March 2001, $50 million
at end-June 2001, $100 million at end-September and $200 million at
both end-December 2001 and end-March 2002 as described in Section III
below using program exchange rate in Table 4.
11. The NDA ceiling will be adjusted downward
by the full amount of any privatization receipts from residents in rupee
equivalent amount using the program exchange rates if receipts are in
foreign currency.
12. Changes in required reserve regulations will modify the NDA
ceiling according to the formula:
where denotes the reserve requirement
ratio prior to any change;
denotes the programmed reserve money base in the period prior to any
change; is the change
in the reserve requirement ratio; and
denotes the immediate change in the reservable base as a result of changes
in its definition.
B. Indicative Target on Reserve Money of the CBSL
|
|
Ceiling
(In billions of rupees) |
|
Outstanding stock as of : |
March
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
111 |
June
30, 2001 (indicative target) |
113 |
September
30, 2001 (indicative target) |
115 |
December
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
120 |
March
31, 2002 (indicative target) 1/ |
122 |
|
1/ Indicative target to
be set at the time of the Second Review of the arrangement. |
13. Reserve money of the CBSL consists of
currency in circulation (with banks and with the rest of the public),
and financial institutions' deposits at the CBSL, and government agencies
deposits (as defined in CBSL's balance sheet in Table
5). As of end-December 2000, reserve money defined in this manner
stood at Rs 105 billion (including government agencies deposits which
were less than Rs 50 million).
14. The ceiling on reserve money will be adjusted
for changes in reserve regulations in line with the adjustment generated
to the NDA limit.
III. External Sector Targets
A. Performance Criterion on Net International Reserves
of the CBSL
|
|
Floor
(In millions of U.S. dollars) |
|
Outstanding stock as of : |
March
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
710 |
June
30, 2001 (performance criterion) |
745 |
September
30, 2001 (performance criterion) |
810 |
December
31, 2001 (performance criterion) |
1,195 |
March
31, 2002 (indicative target) 1/ |
1,310 |
|
1/ Performance criterion
to be set at the time of the Second Review of the arrangement. |
15. Net international reserves of the CBSL is defined
as the difference between its gross foreign assets and gross foreign
liabilities. Gross foreign assets of the CBSL consists of (i) gold,
foreign exchange balances held outside Sri Lanka, foreign securities,
foreign bills purchased and discounted, net IMF position and SDR holdings,
Crown Agent's credit balance, DSTs' Special Dollar Revolving balance,
and (ii) the net forward position, if any, of the CBSL, defined as the
difference between the face value of foreign currency denominated CBSL
off-balance sheet claims on nonresidents and foreign currency obligations
to both residents and nonresidents. Excluded from gross foreign assets
will be participation in international financial institutions, holdings
of nonconvertible currencies, holdings of precious metals other than
gold, and claims on residents (e.g., statutory reserves on foreign deposits
of commercial banks) pledged, collateralized or otherwise encumbered
assets, claims in foreign exchange arising from derivative transactions
(such as futures, forwards, swaps and options). Gross foreign liabilities
are all foreign currency denominated liabilities of contracted maturity
up to one year, the use of Fund credit, and Asian Clearing Union debit
balance.
The following adjustments will apply:
16. The NIR floor will be adjusted upward
by the full amount of excess privatization receipts and downward by
shortfall in privatization receipts up to quarterly limits as set out
in Table 1; adjusted downward/upward by the shortfall/excess of foreign
program financing as set out in Table 2 but the downward adjustment
for shortfalls in foreign program financing will be limited to a maximum
of $25 million at end-March 2001, $50 million at end-June 2001, $100
million at end-September and $200 million at both end-December 2001
and end-March 2002.
B. Performance Criterion on New Nonconcessional External
Debt
|
|
Ceiling
(In millions of U.S. dollars) |
|
Cumulative balance from January 1,
2001 to: |
March
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
350 |
June
30, 2001 (performance criterion) |
350 |
September
30, 2001 (performance criterion) |
350 |
December
31, 2001 (performance criterion) |
350 |
March
31, 2002 (indicative target) 1/ |
400 |
|
1/ Performance criterion
to be set at the time of the Second Review of the arrangement. |
17. Contracting or guaranteeing of new medium
and long-term nonconcessional external debt is defined as contracting
or guaranteeing new nonconcessional external debt by the public sector
(all central and provincial government ministries and departments, public
corporations and institutions, and the CBSL) with an original maturity
of more than one year. Non-concessional debt is defined as borrowing
containing a grant element of less than 35 percent on the basis of currency-specific
discount rates based on the OECD commercial interest reference rates.
This performance criterion applies not only to debt as defined in point
No. 9 of the Guidelines on Performance Criteria with Respect to Foreign
Debt (Decision No. 12274-00/85), August 24, 2000) but also to commitments
contracted or guaranteed for which value has not been received. Excluded
from this performance criterion are credits extended by the IMF and
from the program financing assistance envisaged under the program, including
from IBRD and AsDB, and other bilateral creditors as specified in Table
2. Debt contracted with the private sector as part of the program
financing assistance will also be subject to this ceiling. Debt falling
within the limit shall be valued in U.S. dollars at the exchange rate
prevailing at the time of the contract is entered into, or guarantee
issued.
C. Performance Criterion on Stock of Short-Term Debt
|
|
Ceiling
(In millions of U.S. dollars) |
|
Cumulative balance from January 1,
2001 to: |
March
31, 2001 (indicative target) |
150 |
June
30, 2001 (performance criterion) |
150 |
September
30, 2001 (performance criterion) |
150 |
December
31, 2001 (performance criterion) |
150 |
March
31, 2002 (indicative target) 1/ |
150 |
|
1/ Performance criterion
to be set at the time of the Second Review of the arrangement. |
18. Stock of short-term external debt outstanding
is defined as debt with original maturity of up to one year owed or
guaranteed by the public sector (as defined above). The term debt is
defined as set forth in point No. 9 of the Guidelines on Performance
Criteria with Respect to Foreign Debt (Decision No. 12274-(00/85), August
24, 2000), but excludes normal import-related credits, forward contracts,
swaps, and other future market contracts and short-term liabilities
of the banking system. The ceilings also apply to debt instruments with
put options that would be triggered within one year after the contracting
date.
IV. Data Reporting Requirements
19. For the purpose of monitoring the fiscal performance
under the program, data will be provided in the format as shown in Table
7 and 8:
20. For the purpose of external sector performance
under the program, data will be provided in the format as shown in Table
9 and 10.
21. All the program monitoring data would be provided
by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL).
All the data relating to the above programmed targets will be furnished
within six weeks after the end of each month.
Table 1. Privatization Receipts and Adjustments 1/
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
|
|
2001
March
|
2001
June
|
2001
September
|
2001
December
|
2002
March
|
|
Privatization receipts (in millions of U.S. dollars)
Cumulative from January 1, 2001
|
25
|
90
|
90
|
275
|
275
|
Maximum adjustment in the case of shortfall 2/ |
|
|
|
|
|
In millions
of U.S. dollars |
25
|
50
|
50
|
50
|
50
|
In millions
of rupees |
50,025
|
100,050
|
100,050
|
100,050
|
100,050
|
|
1/Projected privatization receipts
from non-residents only.
2/ Full adjustment will be made for any excess of privatization
receipts |
Table 2. Foreign Financing Assumption; Cumulative from
January 1, 2001
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
|
|
2001
March
|
2001
June
|
2001
September
|
2001
December
|
2002
March
|
|
Multilateral creditors
|
50
|
69
|
98
|
203
|
247
|
World Bank |
0
|
0
|
7
|
87
|
117
|
Asian
Development Bank |
33
|
47
|
66
|
88
|
100
|
Others |
17
|
22
|
25
|
28
|
30
|
Bilateral
creditors |
0
|
11
|
62
|
65
|
76
|
o/w Japan |
0
|
11
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
Germany |
0
|
0
|
17
|
20
|
26
|
Others |
0
|
0
|
20
|
20
|
25
|
Private creditors |
0
|
0
|
0
|
200
|
200
|
Total |
50
|
80
|
160
|
468
|
523
|
|
Table 3. List of Public Corporations as Defined by the
Central Bank of Sri Lanka 1/
|
1. Ceylon Electricity Board |
2. Ceylon Petroleum Corporation |
3. C.W.E. |
4. Ceylon Shipping Corporation |
5. State Pharmaceuticals Corporation |
6. Building Materials Corporation |
7. Ceylon Plywood Corporation |
8. National Livestock Development Board |
1/ Does not include Sri Lanka Telecom, Sri Lankan
Airlines—companies in which the state has large equity shares
but which are privately operated. |
|
Table 4. Exchange Rates and Gold Prices to be Used Under
the Program 1/
|
|
Rupees per Unit of Foreign Currency
|
|
U.S. dollar |
90
|
Japanese yen |
0.8
|
SDR |
117
|
EURO |
83
|
Gold prices (U.S. dollars per ounce) |
265
|
|
1/ Currencies not shown here will be
converted first into U.S. dollars using the official rate used by
Fund's Treasury Department on January 31, 2001. |
Table 5. Balance Sheet of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka
1/
Net Foreign Assets
Foreign assets
Cash
and balance abroad
Foreign
securities
Claims
on ACU
SDRs
Foreign currency reserve
Foreign liabilities
IMF
and nonresident account
Liabilities
to ACU
Government (net)
Net Domestic Assets
Claims on government
Advances
Treasury
bills and bonds
Cash
items in collection
Government deposits
Claims on commercial
banks
Medium
and long term
Short
term
Other items net
Reserve money
Currency in circulation
Commercial bank deposits
Government agencies deposits
1/ As agreed for the purpose of monitoring the program.
Table 6. The Stock of Domestic Debt of Central Government
of Sri Lanka 1/
Stock of Total Domestic Debt By Debt Instruments
Rupee securities
Treasury Bills
Treasury Bonds
Treasury Certificates for Central
Bank
Provisional Advances for Central
Bank
Other liabilities with People's
Bank and Bank of Ceylon net of
government
deposits
Overdraft
with People's Bank
Overdraft
with Bank of Ceylon
Government
deposits with CBSL
Government
deposits with Bank of Ceylon
Government
deposits with People's Bank
Import
Bills - Bank of Ceylon
Imports
Bills - People's Bank
Syndicated
Loans with Bank of Ceylon
Syndicated
Loans with People's Bank
1/ As agreed for the purpose of monitoring the program.
Table 7. Revenue Collection
(in Rs millions)
Total Revenue
Tax revenue
Income
taxes; of which
Save
the Nation Contribution
Turnover
taxes/GST; of which
Imports
TT
on banking and finance
Excise
taxes
Liquor
Tobacco
Other
National
security levy
Taxes
on international trade
Stamp
duty
License
fee/motor vehicles
Nontax revenue
Property
income
CB
profits
Interest
Profits
and dividends
Rents
Fees
and charges
Other
Table 8. Expenditures
(in Rs millions)
Total expenditure and net lending
Current expenditure
Civil
service wages and salaries
Military
wages and salaries
Goods
and services
Subsidies
and transfers; of which
Pensions
Samurdhi
Local
and provincial governments
Interest
payments
Foreign
Domestic
Capital
expenditure and net lending
Rupee
funds (incl. Counterpart funds)
Foreign
financed
Overall
balance (excl. grants and privatization)
Overall
primary balance (excl. grants and privatization)
Table 9. Net International Reserves
(in millions of U.S. dollars)
|
Date |
Central Bank
|
|
Government
|
|
Liabilities
|
|
|
Foreign exchange balance. |
Reserve position with the Fund |
Forex currency deposit due to SRR 1/ |
Total |
Crown Agent's Credit Balance |
DST's special dollar rev. balance |
Total |
Total gross official reserves |
Deposits |
Asian Clearing Union |
PRGF |
Total |
|
1/ Foreign currency deposits held by the CBSL on account
of statutory reserve requirement on foreign currency deposits by commercial
banks.
Table 10. Contracting or Guaranteeing of New Nonconcessional
External Debt by the Public Sector
|
Creditor |
Name of project |
Date of agreement |
Maturity period |
Grace period |
Interest rate |
Currency |
Amount |
Disbursement |
|
|